Did Russia fear Pierre Wauthier was helping the French?

July 24, 2014

The following is very speculative and should be restated as questions.

Did Russia fear that Pierre Wauthier might be helping the French watch Josef Ackermann at Zurich Insurance Group in 2012 and 2013? Pierre Wauthier had worked for the French government out of university. The French had possibly terminated the Lyapunov Institute because they learned Albert Shiryaev, Freddy Delbaen, Darrell Duffie were meeting in Zurich and were advancing the cause of Russia. Russia would know if that was the reason.

So when Ackermann joined Zurich the French suspected he was there to follow up on this and get files for Russia. They might have had Wauthier try to watch this. Or Ackermann or Russia may have feared it or come to fear it when there was friction between Wauthier and Ackermann.

Ackermann and thus Russia would have gotten Wauthier’s file showing his government employment. That would alert them to this risk. Ackermann may have asked Wauthier about his service with the French government. This type of direction may have brought a response from Wauthier that Ackermann and the Russians interpreted as a threat to them.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Agnes Sulem Project 97-03 Mathematical Finance Lyapunov Institute INRIA questions

July 23, 2014

Questions for Agnes Sulem who was a co-head of project 97-03 Mathematical Finance of the Lyapunov Institute a joint project of INRIA France and Moscow State University.


Reports for years 2000 to 2006 are missing.

Starting from 2007 they are present.


Were prior years ones with the collaboration with Albert Shiryaev and Moscow State University and Steklov Institute?

Were these reports given under the Liaupunov Institute?

Project 97-03. Financial Mathematics


Prof. A.N. Shiryaev
Faculty of Mech. and Math., Moscow State University
Main Building, MSU, Vorobjevy Gory, 119992 Moscow, Russia
Tel: 7 (095) 939-14-03
Fax: 7 (095) 939-14-03
E-mail: shiryaev@mi.ras.ru

Prof. A. Sulem
INRIA, Domaine de Voluceau-Rocquencourt
BP 105, 78153 Le Chesnay Cedex, France
Tel: (33) 1-39-63-55-69
Fax: (33) 1-39-63-57-86
E-mail: Agnes.Sulem@inria.fr

The appearance of increasingly complex financial products requires the use of advanced techniques in the stochastic and numerical analyses that poses challenging problems for mathematicians. In this connection, the efforts of the French-Russian research team are focused on the following subjects: modeling of the price of assets by random processes; the stochastic control; dynamic portfolio optimization on incomplete markets; approximate hedging of derivative products and calibration of financial assets.




All traces of this project appear to be gone.

“Project 97-03″ “Financial Mathematics”


Because the Russians were using it for spying and kompromat? The French government realized this sometime in the mid 2000s decade? Then shut it down? The Mathrisk project under Agnes Sulem alone then picked up in 2007 with no reference to the prior version of the project?

Albert Shiryaev was in Zurich sometime in 1997 to 1999 in association with Freddy Delbaen of the ETH.

Albert Shiryaev site:ethz.ch


Friday, February 5, 1999, 15.15 h (ETHZ, Hermann-Weyl-Zimmer, HG G43)
Albert N. Shiryaev (Steklov Mathematical Institute, Moscow)
An extension of the distributional Paul Lévy theorem with applications to the behaviour of financial prices

(Seminar for Financial and Insurance Mathematics, ETHZ)

This page at INRIA was not removed.


Why is math finance so carefully removed but this is not? Because math finance is where the spying was?

Compare this

adresse : Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov, Université de Moscou, Bâtiment E, Vorobyevie Gory, 119899 Moscou, Russie
téléphone +7 095 932 89 53, fax +7 095 932 89 52
Directeur russe : Alexandr Borissovitch Ugolnikov, ugo@vertex.inria.msu.ru
Directeur français : Pierre Népomiastchy, Relations Internationales de l’INRIA,
téléphone +33 1 39 63 56 46, fax +33 1 39 63 50 80, Pierre.Nepomiastchy@inria.fr

Liste des projets de l’Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov
(mise à jour juillet 2002)
AS = Académie des Sciences de Russie

Mathématiques financières
SULEM Agnès (INRIA-Rocquencourt) SHIRYAEV Albert (Faculté de Méca & Maths, Université de Moscou)

Or the following for 2001/2002

Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov d’informatique et de mathématiques appliquées
Rapports scientifiques des projets pour l’année scolaire 2001/2002

Mathématiques financières

Project Participants

On the Russian Side:
1. A.N. Shiryaev – Project Leader; Professor, Moscow State University
2. O.V. Bogoslavsky – Student, Moscow State University
3. A.V. Bulinski – Professor, Moscow State University
4. A.S. Cherny – Senior Lecturer, Moscow State University
5. N.G. Khimtchenko – Scientific Secretary of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
6. Yu.A. Kuznetsov – Ph.D. student, Moscow State University
7. S.N. Lobanov – Student, Moscow State University
8. M.L. Nechaev – Research Assistant, Steklov Mathematical Institute
9. V.N. Tutubalin – Professor, Moscow State University
10. M.A. Urusov – Research Assistant, Moscow State University

On the French Side:
1. A. Sulem – Project Leader; Research Director, INRIA
2. S. Aspandiarov – Senior Lecturer, University Paris-V
3. V. Bally – Professor, Universities de Maine and INRIA
4. J. Jacod – Professor, University Paris-VI
5. M. Jeanblanc – Professor, University d’Evry-Val d’Essone
6. D. Lamberton – Professor, University de Marne la Vallee
7. B. Lapeyre – CERMICS, ENPC
8. D. Lefevre – Doctorant, INRIA
9. F. Legland – Research Director, INRIA Rennes
10. P. Malliavin – Academy of Sciences,
11. M. Mnif – Doctorant, INRIA and University Paris-VII
12. M. Yor – Professor, University Paris-VI

The main results

1) A.N. Shiryaev and A.S. Cherny investigated the relationship between thefollowing classes of processes that are important in the mathematicalfinance: a martingale with independent increments, a local martingale withindependent increments, a sigma-martingale with independent increments(see the paper by A.N. Shiryaev and A.S. Cherny “Vector stochasticintegrals and the fundamental theorems of asset pricing”).

2) A.N. Shiryaev and J. Kallsen have obtained rather general resultsconcerning the structure of the Esscher transform to be applied to the construction of the martingale measures (see the paper by J. Kallsen and A.N. Shiryaev “The cumulant processes and Esscher’s change of measure”).

3) A.N. Shiryaev and G. Peskir solved the problem of the quickestdetection of the “disorder” for Poisson processes (see the paper by G. Peskir and A.N. Shiryaev “Solving the Poisson disorder problem”).

4) A.N. Shiryaev and A. Sulem investigated the price structure and the optimal strategies in the barrier version of the Russian option(see the paper by L. Shepp, A.N. Shiryaev and A.Sulem “A barrier version of the Russian option”).

5) A.N. Shiryaev, M. Yor and A.S. Cherny investigated the limit behaviourof a “horizontal-vertical” random walk on a plane (see the paper byA.S. Cherny, A.N. Shiryaev and M. Yor “Limit behaviour of the horizontal-vertical random walk and some extensions of the Donsker-Prokhorov invariance principle”). This subject has arisen from the problems in the control theory, where one needs to gain the optimal strategy by changing the portfolio of securities (switching the markets).

6) A.N. Shiryaev and M. Yor have developed a new method for obtaining the stochastic integral representations of maxima and partial maxima of a Brownian motion. This is intended for the technical analysis. Similar investigations have been started for Levy processes.

7) A.A. Gushchin has developed a new method for obtaining the upper and thelower option prices. The method is based on the theory of the “statistical experiments”. This makes it possible to get, in effect, all the known particular cases (see the paper by A.A. Gushchin and E. Mordecki “Boundsfor option prices in the semimartingale market models”).

8) D. Lefevre studied the maximization of the utility function with the incomplete data (see the paper by D. Lefevre “An introduction to utility maximization with partial observation”).

9) V.N. Tutubalin compared the theoretical results of the mathematical finance with the methods that are used in the actual trading (see the paper by V.N. Tutubalin “Comparison of some models and results of the stochastic finance with the real financial data”).

10) M.A. Urusov has obtained the results dealing with the “technical analysis”of the financial index dynamics. In particular, he has found suboptimal stopping times that are the closest (in some metric) to the time when a Brownian motion attains its maximum (see the paper by M.A. Urusov “On theoptimal prediction of the time when a Brownian motion attains its maximum”).

Recent Publications

1) A.S. Cherny, A.N. Shiryaev, M. Yor.Limit behaviour of the “horizontal-vertical” random walk and some extensionsof the Donsker-Prokhorov invariance principle.//To be published in the Theory of Probability and Its Applications, 2002. A short version of the paper was published as a preprint in Laboratoire de Probabilités & Modèles Aléatoires, 676, 2001.

2) A.A. Gushchin, E. Mordecki. Bounds for option prices in the semimartingale market models.//Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute, 237 (2002).

3) J. Kallsen, A.N. Shiryaev. The cumulant processes and Esscher’s change of measure.//To be published in Mathematical Finance, 2002.

4) D. Lefevre. An introduction to utility maximization with partial observation.//Rapport INRIA, 2001.

5) G. Peskir, A.N. Shiryaev. Solving the Poisson disorder problem.//Advances in Finance and Stochastics. Essays in honour of DieterSondermann. Springer, 2002, p. 295-312.

6) L. Shepp, A.N. Shiryaev, A. Sulem. A barrier version of the Russian option.//Advances in Finance and Stochastics. Essays in honour of DieterSondermann. Springer, 2002, p. 271-284.

7) A.N. Shiryaev. Quickest detection problems in the technical analysis of the financial data.//Proceedings of the First International Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society. Springer, 2001.

8) A.N. Shiryaev, A.S. Cherny. Vector stochastic integrals and the fundamental theorems of asset pricing.//Transactions of the French-Russian A.M. Liapunov Institute, 2001, p. 5-37.

9) V.N. Tutubalin. Comparison of some models and results of the stochastic finance with the realfinancial data.//Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute, 237 (2002).

10) M.A. Urusov. On the optimal prediction of the time when a Brownian motion attains itsmaximum.//Russian Mathematical Surveys, 57 (2002), No. 1, p. 165-166.

So what happened to Project 97-03 Mathematical Finance of the French Russian A. M. Liapunov Institute? Why did this disappear? When? Who decided it? For what purpose?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Russia picked MH17 first and MH370 to be same airline?

July 21, 2014

Did Russia plan to bring down MH17 over Donetsk before MH370 disappeared? Russia looked at scheduled airlines over Donetsk before MH370 ever disappeared? Then they arranged MH370 to disappear? Then they planned the downing of MH17?

Viktor Vekselberg’s Renova has been assigned airports by Russia to manage. Mongoose operates in Central Asian countries. Could they have been involved in planning MH370? Was the planning done in Siberia to keep it secret?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Pierre Wauthier Josef Ackermann Decision Tree Suicide or Homicide

July 20, 2014

We can think of a decision tree to explore whether Pierre Wauthier committed suicide or was subject to a homicide.

If it was suicide, we then ask why and what caused it. We leave that for later.

If it was homicide, we ask who and how.

If it was a home invasion from the Swiss version of the hood, then how could they know to rig up the suicide note involving Ackermann, etc. So that seems out. If it was homicide, it was done by sophisticated agents who knew of the situation at Zurich Insurance Group.

It was not done by Ackermann or someone like that. It would have to be done by professionals.

Switzerland has so few homicides, they can’t really support a contract killing infrastructure.


Switzerland has fewer than 100 homicides per year and many of those are immigrant related.

Gun related homicides are 3.8 per year.


This is not enough to support a contract killing industry. Nor to have sophisticated parties able to do a faked suicide that can pass a medical examiner.

Josef Ackermann was a colonel in the Swiss army.


The role of Swiss army colonels in Swiss business especially finance is legendary. However, it is not a group of Moscow oligarchs engaged in killing rivals.

Snowden’s revelations came in June 2013. Pierre Wauthier was killed August 26, 2013. So arranging a contract killing by someone not part of that industry would be difficult without it being picked up on phone or email detection in Europe. A business man not part of such a network already would not even try given the Moscow circus of Snowden in July 2013. That was a reminder of how difficult it is to evade detection by the authorities.

Moscow is a different story.

Hit Men Make a Killing in Hard Times
By Igor SemenenkoJun. 25 1999 00:00

Russia’s economic woes have put the cut-throat back into competition, with the first five months of 1999 seeing the incidence of contract killings double, Interior Ministry officials said Thursday.

Between January and May this year, 567 businessmen were slain on the orders of their competitors, compared to 232 such killings over the same period last year and 599 contract killings for the whole of 1998, according to police figures.

The figures also show contract “hits” are most common in the oil and gas, metals and banking sectors, said Akhmed Khairov, deputy head of the Interior Ministry’s major crimes section.



Igor the Assassin is an SVR and former KGB officer who allegedly killed Alexander Litvinenko and escaped back to Russia.[1][2] He was among the members of a group consisted of the former KGB agents called ‘Dignity and Honor’.[3] According to one version of the Alexander Litvinenko poisoning, the official suspect of the murder, Andrei Lugovoi, only distracted the attention of Litvinenko, while “Igor the Assassin” placed the radioactive polonium into the cup of tea served for Litvinenko. “Igor the Assassin” was later seen on his way back to Russia in an airport in London.

His name and true identity remain unknown. He was said to be a former Spetznaz officer born in 1960 who is a Judo master and walks with a slight limp. He speaks perfect English and Portuguese.[4] Steven Wright of the Daily Mail reported that he was 46 years old in 2006.[3]


Alexander Zyurikov vice Chairman of Renova Group and head of Mongoose or Mangust Private Security could hire a person like Igor the Assassin. They need someone who speaks German well and preferably French and English as well.

Alexander S. Zyurikov
Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board, Director for Security Born in 1951.

Graduated from Omsk Higher School under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs,
Academy of Management under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs. Worked in detective force of law enforcement agencies in the Novosibirsk region, Uzbekistan, USSR/ Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Headed a branch directorate of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Since 1997 €“ General Director of OOO Mongoose-Service (private security firm).

Mongoose is more often known as Mangust.


320185 (+73-320185)


Mangust LTD, OOO

Ukraine, Kharkov region, Kharkov, 61058, st. Ivanovskaya, 3
Kovalenko Tatyana Anatolevna


MANGUST SECURITY LTD. Post index: 100128
Country: Uzbekistan
City: Tashkent
District: Shayhontohur
street !, 3а
City Code: 371
Phone: (+99895) 1445253; (+99890) 3160203


So if there was a contract killing of Pierre Wauthier in Zug, Switzerland, the likely ones to do it would be contract men out of Russia. These would still require an intermediary, someone experienced. Someone like Alexander Zyurikov.

Entry into and departures from Switzerland around the time of August 26, 2013 can be done from computer records. The departures going out can use external records available to the US and UK even if Swiss entries are not.

So if it was not suicide, then it was likely a contract killing by sophisticated parties aware of the issues with Josef Ackermann. This means likely from Russia, whoever was behind it.

A contract killing out of Russia into Switzerland would be known to the FSB. So it would only be allowed if it helped Russia. That could include helping Russia’s plan in 2013 for invading Ukraine or to protect Putin’s assets held in other names in Switzerland such as Renova Group.

So if Wauthier was killed, we have eliminated a break in because of the suicide note about Ackermann requiring sophistication. We have eliminated a business person trying to do a casual hit men hiring given Snowden news everywhere. So we are down to an intermediary doing a contract killing out of Russia. That would be something like Renova Group, Mongoose Private Security and Alexander Zyurikov. This is not to say they did it, just someone like them if it was not suicide.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Boris Berezovsky death and Stanley Fischer set up Israel for blame

July 20, 2014

The death of Boris Berezovsky, for whatever cause or who was involved, and the move of Stanley Fischer from head of Israel’s central bank to Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve has set Israel up for blame in a terrorist event engineered by Russia in the United States especially in New York or Washington DC.

Stanley Fischer resigned unexpectedly at the end of January 2013. This was about a week after I sent an email to MIT asking them to investigate Stanley Fischer for plagiarism in his Ph.D. thesis, whether Russia used that to pressure IMF loans, and whether Aaron Swartz was trying to investigate that by downloading JSTOR files. I had used a much smaller set of JSTOR files downloaded in the normal manner to investigate that and help confirm it.

Boris Berezovsky was found dead near the end of March 2013 when he was scheduled to fly to Israel. Boris Berezovsky was the one behind use of kompromat on Stanley Fischer in the 1990s to get IMF loans for Russia and to use that money to fund the genocide of Chechens as Chechens see it. Larry Summers too was a target of that. For either Summers or Fischer to be appointed to the Fed, removing Berezovsky would be of benefit.

The security guard and only other person known to be around Berezovsky when he was found dead was Avi Navama

Avi Navama has over 15 years of experience in the security services both in the public and private sectors. As part of a Special Forces unit whilst in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Avi specialized in counter terrorism operations. He later joined the Israeli Security Agency, where he specialized in operational intelligence and the prevention of terror activity. Other specializations included the identification of risk throughout international arenas. Avi has subsequently been responsible for security at Ben-Gurion Airport, overseeing close protection security for the Israeli Prime Minister and various government ministers and was appointed the security attaché at the Israeli Embassy in London. Upon leaving the Israeli security services, he entered the private sector as a consultant and operational manager where he has managed large security projects in the UK and abroad for high profile clients for the past five years.


This biography lets Russia tie Israel to the death of Berezovsky and to any plot Russia cares to suggest about Israel getting Stanley Fischer to the Fed. That would include linking him to Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Fischer helps keep the US government from imposing sanctions on Israel is how that would be explained.


The second day of hearing into the death of Russian businessman Boris Berezovsky is under way in the Town Hall in the British city of Windsor. According to published data aafter expert examination, a scarf found at the scene could have served as the means for the entrepreneur’s suicide.

“Both parts of the torn scarf coincide. Fibers from both parts are identical, many fibers, identical to the material of the scarf, were also found both on a shower rail and on the clothes of Mr. Berezovsky, including the area of the neck and shoulders.

The examination ascertained that the scarf was torn as a result of the application of force, which can be explained by Mr. Berezovsky’s weight,” coroner Peter Bedford read out the examination’s conclusion during the inquiry into the businessman’s death.

Opponents of the suicide version believe that the scarf was too thin to bear Berezovsky’s weight. An independent forensic expert, Robert Bone, found that the scarf was able to bear the weight of the body and become the instrument of suicide.

“Whatever force was used, whether gradually or abruptly, the scarf could bear the weight of the body,” Bone said answering Bedford’s questions.

“I constantly ask myself: Was everything taken into account during the investigation? And I have a feeling that not all the questions have answers. Not everything is clear in this case. For example, it was only yesterday that, thanks to my questions, we found out that the bathroom could be locked from both sides. If I had not asked questions, everybody would have thought that it was only possible to lock the bathroom from the inside,” Elizabeth Berezovskaya concluded her testimony.

Voice of Russia, RIA, Interfax

Notice how Voice of Russia reports this little known fact about the bathroom door being lockable from both sides. That is important to any conspiracy theory to kill Berezovsky.

The torn scarf means Berezovsky fell. If he was killed, this fall would explain any bruises or fractures found later in killing him. Obviously, they could not do a medical examination after killing him, so this technique would cover that. This is the sort of technique Israel or Russia would know. They would know how to kill him so that the bruises or fractures could be explained by the fall from the broken scarf.

Avi Navama, Mr Berezovsky’s bodyguard of six years, told the inquest at Windsor Guildhall that he was “very low” and “depressed” in the last four months of his life but seemed “different” in the final two days before he died.

Speaking of when he last saw him, the night before he died, Mr Navama said: “He looked at me with very low, tired eyes.

“Like he doesn’t know what to do.”

He said that later that night he collected Mr Berezovsky’s son, Gleb, from school and got a text from his boss thanking him, which he thought “strange”.

Police confirmed the Russian exile’s cause of death was “consistent with hanging”.



The tycoon’s lifeless body was discovered slumped on the floor by his bodyguard at his ex-wife’s luxury property in Ascot, Berkshire, on March 23 last year.

However a paramedic who attended the scene said there were some “strange” elements to the incident, including the colour of Mr Berezovsky’s body.

The witness said: “In my experience normally when we go to patients in these circumstances they tend to be quite pale. I felt that the colour was quite a deep purple.”

Paramedic John Pocock added that he received a phone call to say that police were warning of “hazardous materials” being present in the property and a “warning tone” went off on the alarm he carried to detect levels of background radiation.

He said he spoke to Avi Navama, Mr Berezovsky’s bodyguard of six years, who “indicated that he wasn’t aware of any radiation” and advised him to leave the mansion, as he did.

Mr Pocock said: “It may have just been a faulty meter.

This helped slow down the investigation presumably and possibly the examination of the body.


“I don’t believe it was suicide,” he states. “My friend would not have taken his own life.”
Despite the evidence pointing to a suicide, the discovery of Mr Berezovsky’s body at his home last Saturday led to immediate speculation that, once again, the long reach of President Vladimir Putin was behind the death of one of his inconvenient critics.
Mr Zakayev, the exiled “Prime Minister” of the Chechen Republic, bitter enemy of President Putin and a close friend and confidante of Mr Berezovsky, has more reason than most to believe this.
After all, he was himself the target of an assassination plot in London, revealed by MI5 in April last year. It is the very frequency of these incidents that makes him doubt the theory that Mr Berezovsky took his own life. And certainly, with the death of Mr Berezovsky, President Putin has lost one of his most high-profile opponents.

It was against this background that his bodyguard, not having seen Mr Berezovsky for several hours and growing increasingly anxious, broke down the bathroom door around 3pm last Saturday and discovered his lifeless body.
But such is the level of anxiety and distrust among opponents of the Russian president that the conclusion that Mr Berezovsky did indeed take his own life in a moment of despair has been greeted with scepticism and disbelief.


The body of the Russian oligarch was found by his bodyguard on the bathroom floor of his Ascot home. A ligature was round his neck and a piece of the same material was tied to the shower rail above his body.
The opening of the inquest into his death, held at Windsor Guildhall last Wednesday, heard that there had been no signs of a violent struggle.

Also this:


Berezovsky’s body was discovered on a bathroom floor in his residence on Saturday, after the tycoon’s employee forced open the door, which had been locked from the inside, police said in a statement.

Berezovsky was left unguarded for five hours on the day of his death before being discovered, the Telegraph reported.

According to the tycoon’s bodyguard, Berezovsky was alone at home from 10:00am to 3:00pm on Saturday, as his bodyguard, former Mossad agent, went to run errands.

Berezovsky was reportedly last seen alive on Friday at 10:30pm when he gave out a list of errands to the bodyguard, who was the tycoon’s last protection.

When the bodyguard returned he saw a number of missed calls on Berezovsky’s phone, which was left downstairs. He then forced open the bathroom door and discovered the deceased body lying on the floor. Berezovsky was fully dressed, and there was no blood and no suicide note.


No matter what happened, Russia can blame Israel for Berezovsky’s death and tie it to Israel covering up Stanley Fischer’s plagiarism and funding IMF loans to Chechens, even admitting Berezovsky pressured Stanley Fischer to get the IMF loans.

Senator Schumer was the one who prevailed on the Senate Banking Committee to confirm Stanley Fischer after the long pause during which the Federal Reserve and likely FBI received information about Stanley Fischer’s plagiarism and Russia’s use of it. Schumer said he would add a statement on Stanley Fischer at the hearing of the confirmation vote in 2014. Russia can further tie Schumer to the plan to get Fischer as fed vice Chairman and thus tie Israel even more to this and to the coverup of Stanley Fischer funding the Chechen genocide with IMF loans. That can then justify a Chechen terrorist attack on the New York Fed or Washington DC Fed, possibly using a stolen nuke or radioactive material.

Israel would have little defense. They knew of the plagiarism. David Levhari in Israel also likely plagiarized Hakansson and was part of the conspiracy to keep him from getting credit. Levhari supported Fischer for the central bank job in Israel in an essay.

TN Srinivasan, the coauthor with David Levhari was at an earlier SIEPR at Stanford and Fischer got 100,000 from Stanford SIEPR in 2013 despite knowing his plagiarism of Hakansson and Russia’s use of it to get IMF loans. Elements of Stanford can be blamed as part of the conspiracy to get Stanley Fischer confirmed. The Senate Banking Committee helped set this up by confirming Stanley Fischer after they got information in secret about this.

The Fed is under jurisdiction of the Senate Banking Committee which has Chuck Schumer as a member, in fact a very influential one and one who pushed the Stanley Fischer appointment despite the committee learning of all this. That was after Berezovsky’s death.

Thus in a Nuke the Fed attack by Chechen terrorists at the Fed in NYC in FiDi or at Washington DC, Israel can be blamed as well as elements of the US government for covering up Stanley Fischer’s role in funding the genocide of the Chechen people in the 1990s.

The Boston Bombing attack has already set up in the US public’s mind that America can be a target by Chechens. So this would all tie together and be accepted, or at least Russia thinks so. So they can supply a nuke or nuclear material to a Chechen group in Kazakhstan and then report it as stolen to the US FBI and UK MI5 and then say we told you so just like after the Boston Bombing in 2013.

Russia can then say lift your sanctions on us so we can help you investigate these terror groups from Central Asia including states bordering Afghanistan or in the region. This includes Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan where, by the way, Vekselberg’s Renova Group’s Mangust or Mongoose Private Security has offices.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

July2014X A Muslim group steals a nuke in Kazakhstan? Nuke NYC Fed?

July 20, 2014

One possibility for July2014X the event happening while we focus on Mh17 and Gaza could be that a Muslim group in Kazakhstan gets hold of a Russian nuke. Russia could have reported the nuke as stolen or missing already to the United States and United Kingdom.

Russia could document a trail to be discovered later of this group getting the nuke in July 2014 in Kazakhstan. Later the nuke is moved to New York City and exploded in the Financial District near the World Trade Center. This might happen in 2015. Possibly outside a mosque or inside one in FiDi near old WTC. In the meantime, Russia could do more fake Chechen bombings in Russia such as in Volgograd to make them seem like a victim too.

After the nuke in NYC, Russia then says, so sorry, we told you about that nuke being stolen and missing. They also gave us a list of Muslim groups operating in Kazakhstan or have already.

Boston Bombing April 15, 2013 may have been a dry run for such a nuke run in NYC. They could test our investigation skills. Revealing Snowden also helps keep their proxy Muslim group from using telephones or emails to communicate.

Russia might do this if we put on heavy sanctions on it over Ukraine or over MH17.

Russia says after the nuke they will cooperate with us to track down the real terrorists, but we have to lift our sanctions on them so they have the funds to do it.

Volgograd bombings are another part of conditioning us to accept such a New York City nuke scenario. They say we have terrorists too.

They even link the attack to Muslims from Crimea and say it is revenge over Crimea and if America had not made such a big deal, the Chechens would not have felt entitled to retaliate.

Stanley Fischer can fit into such a scenario. The Muslim group could say that Fischer had funded the Chechen genocide with IMF loans in the 1990s. They say he did it to cover up his plagiarism that Russia knew about. They further say the Senate Banking committee and Schumer of New York knew about the plagiarism and that it was a key factor in Russia’s genocide of Chechens.

They can even set the nuke off close to the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. This way they can tie it to Stanley Fischer being appointed Vice Chairman. This may have been part of Russia’s plan all along if they are partly responsible for Stanley Fischer being made vice Chairman, perhaps in some deal with Israel, although Israel presumably would not know about the nuke the Fed in NYC part.

The Russians have to make it plausible that the Chechens would nuke the Fed in NYC instead of attacking Russia with it. The Boston Bombing of April 2013 does that. That already makes Americans accept that they are a target for Chechens.

The death of Boris Berezovsky helped set this up, because they took him out of the way to tell what is going on, particularly about Stanley Fischer. Berezovsky was a professor at Institute of Control Sciences V.A. Trapezian Moscow.


The Stanley Fischer thesis plagiarism was in the same area of math as this institute works on and where Berezovsky was a professor in 1970s and 1980s.

Note Berezovsky’s “suicide” involved a locked bathroom door that could be locked from both sides. It involved a scarf that came apart so that Berezovsky fell. That would explain any bruises or fractured bones found later. His security guard was from Israel.

Avi Navama was the security guard at Berezovsky home and only person there other than Berezovsky we know of.


Avi Navama has over 15 years of experience in the security services both in the public and private sectors. As part of a Special Forces unit whilst in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Avi specialized in counter terrorism operations. He later joined the Israeli Security Agency, where he specialized in operational intelligence and the prevention of terror activity. Other specializations included the identification of risk throughout international arenas. Avi has subsequently been responsible for security at Ben-Gurion Airport, overseeing close protection security for the Israeli Prime Minister and various government ministers and was appointed the security attaché at the Israeli Embassy in London. Upon leaving the Israeli security services, he entered the private sector as a consultant and operational manager where he has managed large security projects in the UK and abroad for high profile clients for the past five years.

Berezovsky fell through the scarf it is claimed and hit the floor of the bathroom and/or tub, sink, etc. So any bruises can be blamed on the fall. Israel has the sophistication to know how to do that. So does Russia.

This is not to claim Mr. Navama was involved, just to stimulate the mind. Russia could say he was later even if he had no involvement. The above paragraph is enough for Russia to blame Berezovsky’s death on Israel and then try to mix Israel into the events. They could try to tie Israel to the Boston Bombing somehow and the later incident.

Stanley Fischer also links Israel to the Chechen genocide. Israel then made Stanley Fischer chairman of their central bank. So a Chechen attack in New York, which has a large Jewish population, can also be tied to Chechen resentments against Israel. It can also be tied by Russia to what is happening in Gaza by any Muslim group.

Remember, Russia blamed the CIA after the Boston Bombing for 1990s activities involving Harvard prof Andrei Shleifer. Even if Berezovsky died of natural causes, Russia can use the above to blame Israel and then blame Israel for the nuke. Perhaps there will be a private security company involved in the post event evidence trail with links to Israel.

Russia can present some twisted theory that will be acceptable to conspiracy theorists. The MH17 shoot down was likely planned so that conspiracy theorists would have plenty to work on. If necessary, Russia could stimulate it itself with social media.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Wauthier Ackermann Renova Group some notes

July 19, 2014

This is very speculative and hypothetical.

Suppose for whatever reason that Josef Ackermann had wanted to cause the death of Pierre Wauthier.  How would he do it?  He couldn’t buy a copy of Soldier of Fortune and call an ad in the back.  That would probably get law enforcement.  Given what we know from Snowden, the chances are any such telephone number is monitored by the NSA and other country agencies.

A person like Ackermann doesn’t deal with the type of people who do this sort of work.  If he did get someone not a cop, they would blackmail him. It would be worse than whatever Wauthier could say about him.

Someone like Ackermann needs not just a referral but an intermediary who can handle the hiring and payment of the team to do the job.  Renova Group has a Russian private security firm linked to it, Mongoose or Mangust. It operates from Kiev, Ufa Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Mongoose is run by Alexander Zyurikov who is vice chairman of Renova Group.  So if Ackermann had needed such help he could go to Vekselberg and Zyurikov and then Zyurikov would arrange it.  Mongoose then would hire someone else through say its Kazakhstan office.

A team would enter Switzerland do the work and leave.  If it involved surveillance, they would need access to Wauthier’s home, work computer, cell, etc. That would probably be a different team.

The team that would do the job on Wauthier might also remove any listening devices.  They might however, foul that up. Or leave them there to see what happened afterwards.  Logically, those would be removed before Renova Group announced that Ackermann was joining their team.  However, what if they fouled it up?  Left something?  Then while everyone is looking at Ukraine, they might send in a team to remove anything left.

We see that to manage this sort of operation in a case like this, it involves an intermediary who can manage such people on an ongoing basis.  So it takes something like a Mongoose with offices in remote places like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan or Ufa Russia that are beyond Western law enforcement or even spy agencies to operate in.

So if someone like Ackermann was to be the decision maker to start this, he would have to use contacts like Renova Group or similar contacts in Moscow to do it.  Russia would then have that on him as leverage going forward.  He would have sold his soul to them, if he hasn’t already.

This is not intended to suggest in anyway that Ackermann is responsible for Wauthier’s death in this way.  This is simply used as a straw man to discuss hypothetically.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.



July2014X We always miss what Russia is doing next. What are they distracting from now?

July 19, 2014

Right now, somewhere in the world, Russia is working on July2014X, some act we are overlooking while MH17 and Gaza receive our attention.  How can we figure it out?

We can look at 2012 to 2014 in incidents involving Russia and ask how we could have stopped the next one? This is complicated by the fact that we can’t be sure which incidents they were really behind. Even now with Malaysian Flight MH17 some people think it was an accidental shooting. But let’s take some incidents and pretend Russia was behind all of them as a coordinated sequence. Then let’s ask how we could have prevented the next link in the chain.  We won’t provide the answers in this post, but leave that as homework.

Whether right or not, we take the following chain of incidents as caused by Russia.

  1. Snowden starts downloading files in 2012.
  2. Josef Ackermann joins Zurich Insurance Group, ZIG, and we will pretend gets files on this blogger and others linked to him from the Rohrbasser team.  These are employee records, letters between lawyers, etc.
  3. January 2013 Aaron Swartz is found dead.
  4. Anonymous attacks MIT computer network, possibly to cover email monitoring software being added or removed.
  5. Stanley Fischer resigns unexpectedly. January 2013.
  6. Boris Berezvosky is found dead in March 2013.
  7. Boston Bombing April 15, 2013 by Chechens in Boston.
  8. May 2013. Russia releases video of CIA agent in wig and names CIA station chief.
  9. May 20 2013 Snowden leaves Hawaii / arrives in Hong Kong.
  10. Pierre Wauthier suicide.  (We include this suicide because of the subsequent link of Ackermann joining Renova Group)
  11. Homburger law firm report/coverup in Wauthier suicide.  This law firm is linked to Marc Rich and thus Renova Group through Renova Marc Rich RUSAL aluminum transactions.
  12. Stanley Fischer nomination to Federal Reserve vice Chairman.
  13. Volgograd suicide bombings.
  14. Ukraine Maidan coup.
  15. Crimea takeover by Russia.
  16. Stanford SIEPR Day March 2013 possibly some aborted fake suicide of Darrell Duffie or someone else.
  17. MH370 disappearance.
  18. Revolts Eastern Ukraine.
  19. MH17 shoot down July 2014.
  20. July2014X

There are finance related suicides that may be faked and should be added to the list.  However, I’m not prepared to even offer a hypothesis yet in those cases, except the Wauthier case, which has been discussed, rightly or wrongly, in prior posts.  [Note the Wauthier case is interesting because the "suicide"note implicates Ackermann who reigned and later joined Renova and the law firm doing the report Homburger is also linked to Renova through Marc Rich Foundation at a minimum. Renova is also different in having a private security firm Mongoose, Mangust that apparently has offices in Central Asia as well. Renova is also linked to Luhansk Republic. Veksleberg may have had a personal link to Berezovsky in Moscow in the 1980s in work on (operations research?) software by Vekselberg. Also I actually knew Wauthier if only slightly.]

None of the above incidents had a threat letter.  The cops always ask if someone made a threat.  In none of the above cases did that happen, with the possible exception of vague comments by Putin or some other actor.  If the authorities are using a threat as a filter, then they couldn’t stop any of these events.  [Not surprisingly, that is their official position as well. Maybe that is why they always say no threat, no response.]

So right now, Russia is doing July2014X somewhere in the world.  What might that be?

  1. Russia is removing listening devices from a professor’s office, government office, bank office, politician, IMF type org, private home, etc.
  2. Russia is adding listening devices to the same place.
  3. Same for software to monitor networks, cell phones, email, computers, etc.
  4. Someone like Snowden is getting on an airplane and security personnel are not giving them scrutiny.
  5. A terrorist cell like Tsarnaev Brothers and possibly the others are preparing something.
  6. Russian private security is interacting with a Muslim Front Group to develop a Tsarnaev type terrorist cell.
  7. Russia possibly with private security is trying to set up the next Crimea style revolt.  This could be in another former Soviet republic.
  8. Another banker, professor, government employee, etc. is going to fake suicide.
  9. Russia is working on getting some private database like JSTOR if it doesn’t have it yet.
  10. Some investigation that is open is being bribed or coerced to ignore or suppress evidence.  Like the Homburger law firm in fall 2013 on Wauthier.  This law firm is linked to Marc Rich who was very close with Russia’s corrupt classes from the 1980s.
  11. Some investigation that should be reopened is not.

How can we tell?

  1. Russia may give some indication they are aware they made a mistake or left a loose end somewhere.
  2. Someone may give evidence of panic who is linked to Russia somehow.
  3. Some sort of Chechen link to a current incident may be in the files of the FBI and MI5 or even public.
  4. Some sort of link through a Russian oligarch fund like Renova or a company like RUSAL or  Rosneft.
  5. Some act linked to some pot of money that is covertly owned by Putin.
  6. A professor linked to all of this showing signs of weakness, panic, or fear.
  7. Another government or private sector figure showing that.
  8. Academic, business and government conferences and meetings involving these people that show links or suspicious behavior or lapses.
  9. Some law case about to go to trial where someone outside the case might come forward with some linkage to Russia or their actions.
  10. A banker reporting stress or in some difficulty. There have been so many finance suicides this deserves special attention.
  11. We can go back to the past list of events and ask if Russia left a loose end.  Did they leave a listening device they should have removed?  Could it produce evidence against a professor, banker, oligarch, government employee, journalist, etc?
  12. Some act of kompromat may be being prepared or exploited.  Illicit photographs, stupid emails, plagiarism, fake transcripts, and that is just professors.  Appointments of known spies or their confirmation anyhow after a background check has exposed them are popular with the Senate Banking Committee but others may also be playing this game.
  13. Awards to known corrupt figures or being honored at conferences in the US, Europe or Russia.
  14. CEO appointments and firings.  Others in corporations.
  15. Humiliations.

Each of these may be an indicator of something coming next or of a crisis point.

July2014X may involve loss of life as an intended part of it, or that may evolve as it is bungled or those involved panic.  It may involve listening devices or software being added or removed. It may be some act of corruption by elected or appointed politicians.  A court proceeding may be interfered with.  A coup may be prepared.  A terrorist act may be coming.  The NSA, FBI, MI5 and other agencies need to try to stop it.  We can be pretty confident Russia is not sitting still.

We may not know what July2014X is until later or ever. A Snowden downloading may be going on and we won’t know because this is a stealth Snowden not an agitprop one.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Pierre Wauthier suicide or homicide how to think about it.

July 18, 2014

We can consider how to go about considering whether Pierre Wauthier was a suicide or homicide.

Reasons to think it was a suicide.

1. There are many more suicides in Switzerland than homicides.

2. He had expressed the view of feeling stress.

Reasons to think it was a homicide.

1. There was a conflict with Josef Ackermann.

2. Ackermann joined Renova Group after the death of Pierre Wauthier.

3. Renova Group’s vice chairman is the head of the Russian private security firm Mongoose aka Mangust.

4. Mangust operates not just from Ufa Russia, but also Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and Kiev.

5. These are the same places many of those in the Boston bombing case are from.

6. Renova Group is likely fronting for Putin’s own money.

7. Ackermann has a relation with Russia and has met senior people like Putin and Sergei Lavrov. He also has a relation with Merkel who was in East Germany when it was Communist and she was a Communist.

8. If Wauthier could testify against Ackermann in any way that could give law enforcement leverage over Ackermann, then Ackermann could testify against these people.

9. This could lead to exposing Putin’s own money in Renova Group being subject to civil litigation in courts in Switzerland or the US or UK. So Putin could lose his money as people sue for everything he has done.

10. Pierre Wauthier knew the author of this blog and had possible knowledge that Russia could have hoped would give them leverage. As it turns out, it didn’t. But the CFO of Zurich Insurance in 1998 resigned for insider trading. Zurich Insurance continued to pay him money. The blog author was part of Rohrbasser’s team and that was known to Freddy Delbaen and possibly Darrell Duffie. So possibly there was a link to the insider payment or ZIG paying Rohrbasser after he left even though he was prosecuted by Switzerland. As it turns out, the blog author told ZIG not to do it and was fired within 2 months of Rohrbasser’s resignation. This also is useful info for Russian intel to find out and to use somehow at some point. Wauthier was the only person left at ZIG from those days who knew the blog author.

11. Wauthier could have other knowledge, e.g. of Delbaen who was a consultant to ZIG.

12. Wauthier might have academic contacts in Switzerland or France or people he knows who knew the blog author and his writings on Russia. So Wauthier could have put together the linkage between Ackermann asking about Rohrbasser, the prosecution for insider trading, ZIG’s payments to Rohrbasser, the linkage if any to this blog author, etc.

13. Because Renova Group is Putin’s own money and Wauthier could provide direct evidence against Ackermann, assuming this scenario, Wauthier was a direct threat to break this open in Switzerland and lose Putin over 10 billion dollars of his money in Renova Group.

14. Mangust Kazakhstan could cause the death of Wauthier without involving the legal system of Russia. For the Russian intel service to cause Wauthier’s death, there would have to be a death warrant signed. That would likely require a secret trial in Russia. Wauthier was never in Russia and coming up with reasons would be difficult. However, Mangust Kazakhstan could do it without these legal requirements.

15. Vekselberg lives in Zug near Wauthier’s house. If Wauthier died there, Vekselberg would be frightened. That would remind Vekselberg that Renova Group was Putin’s money not Vekselberg’s. Vekselberg is careful to say that he never had the Faberge eggs in his own home. So he makes it clear he is not spending Putin’s money lavishly.

16. Wauthier died in August 2013 which was a point in the sequence of 2013 and 2014 events leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

17. Stanley Fischer is part of these events.

18. Freddy Delbaen, Albert Shiryaev and Darrell Duffie were meeting in Zurich to work on putting pressure on Stanley Fischer in 1997 is likely. In 2013, Fischer was part of the events in the sequence starting with Aaron Swartz’s “suicide”, Berezovsky’s “suicide” and Wauthier’s.

19. These all relate to Stanley Fischer in some way. Swartz may have been investigating the Fischer plagiarism and using JSTOR for that. Berezovsky was behind using it to get IMF loans in the 1990s. Delbaen, Shiryaev and Duffie in Zurich in 1997 were all working on that for Russia is one scenario. The blog author was part of their plans then although he did not know it.

20. Wauthier could help link 1997 and 1998 events in Zurich to 2013 and the impending invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014. So they needed him out of the way same as Swartz and Berezovsky.

21. Russia has not hidden the subsequent links, e.g. Ackermann joining Renova Group, Sergei Guriev going to Stanford for SIEPR Day where Duffie was, etc.

22. If Russia was already involved in killing people in 2013 such as Swartz or Berezovsky or the Boston Bombing, then Wauthier would be easy to add to their list. This is particularly so if he threatened Putin’s money in Renova by being a potential witness against Ackermman would could then expose this network if law enforcement got leverage over him.

23. Perhaps at times, Russia kills for the fun of it? This article suggests that about Israel in the Gaza invasion of 2014.


Similar things could be said about Russia. Keeping Ackermann and Vekselberg afraid seems to be useful for Putin as well. Zyurikov as vice Chairman of Renova seems to have no other role besides keeping Vekselberg afraid and reminding him that Renova is Putin’s money.

24. When Pierre Wauthier did not show up for a meeting on Monday, ZIG immediately sent a security guard to his home in Zug. This is unusual and his widow found it unusual.

25. Josef Ackermann immediately resigned in a way indicating guilt to his widow. If Ackermann had provided information to Russia or Mongoose private security gained from Wauthier and had discussed with them whether Wauthier might connect that to Russia and expose them, then Wauthier’s death may have suggested to Ackermann that Russia had caused Wauthier’s death.

26. Josef Ackermann resigned from Siemens as Vice Chairman as well.

27. Peter Loscher of Siemens joined Renova in February 2014 with Ackermann. Both had been involved in conferences with Russian academics including Sergei Guriev, Rector of New Economic School Moscow. Loscher stepped down as CEO of Siemens in July 2013. Wauthier died August 26, 2013.


This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Ukraine Malaysia Flight MH17 downed by missile possibly Russian private security

July 17, 2014

Malaysia flight MH17 was shot down by a missile in Eastern Ukraine near the border with Russia in the insurgent areas of Donestk and near Luhansk (Lugansk).


From a Russian point of view, having it done by a private security company from Kazakhstan from within Donetsk is the ideal. That removes any Russian legal responsibility.

Mongoose or Mangust Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan or even Kiev would fit the bill. These are legal entities not technically subject to Russian jurisdiction or licensing. They act from within Donestk or Ukraine outside Russian legal jurisdiction.

Thus their action is deniable by Russia and outside their jurisdiction. If Russia gets the black boxes and does an investigation it can simply consider those companies beyond its legal jurisdiction and outside the scope of its investigation.

Veksleberg and Renova Group are already linked to Luhansk through Marat Bahsirov appointed as acting prime minister of Luhansk without explanation for firing the former prime minister. This happened Friday July 4, 2014, just 13 days ago.


Why did Putin do it? One reason is to create terror. To create a distraction. To oppose sanctions on Russia. To send a warning to Ukraine, Obama and Europe.

To know that the flight was a Malaysian 777 would require planning and know-how. This was not an accidental shooting of a Malaysian passenger jet. It was deliberate and planned in advance to know it was a Malaysian aircraft.

Renova Group has been given airports in Russia to run. So it is linked that way. Zyurikov is vice Chairman of Renova and head of Mongoose Private Security aka Mangust.

Renova Group was linked to Luhansk intentionally by the Bashirov appointment. Renova Group was put under investigation in 2004. The memory of this puts pressure on it so Vekselberg and Zyurikov are reminded how easy it is for Putin to act against them.

Interesting info on Renova Group and Vekselberg.


The Russians know that the Americans will rely on sigint and that without explicit evidence in sigint that Russia ordered it, the US will say there is no evidence that Putin ordered it. Putin is laughing at this. Russia knows how the US can’t act without certainty and that it is paralyzed without it.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


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