What are Putin’s messages with MH17 and MH370?

July 27, 2014

For this discussion, we take as assumption that Russia was behind MH370 and that we can infer that based on probability arguments. The same is assumed for the Boston bombing, death of Alexander V. Litvinenko, and Boris Berezovsky.

 

Some basic messages Putin sends are:

  1. He is willing to kill people.
  2. He is willing to kill Western people.
  3. He is likely behind terrorist incidents in the past such as Boston Bombing, MH370, Volgograd bombings, Moscow Apartment Bombings, etc.
  4. That he can commit an act of terrorism like MH370 and we still can’t pin it on him or find out how he did it.
  5. In fact, he can commit an act of terrorism like MH370 and our authorities are afraid to say so publicly because it is “speculation”.
  6. Putin understands the psychology of our governments that they can’t say anything based on probability because they have labeled probability itself as conspiracy theory.
  7. Putin understands the gap this create and he uses it to commit terrorist acts without our governments being will to say it.
  8. Even with MH17 they are afraid to use probability to say Putin is guilty.
  9. The labeling of probability as conspiracy theory by Western governments means as long as Putin has a sliver of plausible deniability he can commit terrorist acts that they know privately are done by him but are afraid to say so publicly.
  10. This means the West can’t mobilize itself to impose sanctions as a bloc.
  11. Without the US government being willing to say Putin is guilty even in MH17, it can never mobilize its own public or the EU to impose meaningful sanctions on Russia.
  12. Putin can raise the level of death of our own people and continue to get away with it.  He has shown by his many terrorist acts including several in our countries, Boston Bombing, MH17 and MH370 that he can get away with it.
  13. In 2006, Putin showed he could kill Alexander V. Litvinenko in London and the West would be afraid to say so.
  14. Out unwillingness to state publicly on the record his responsibility for killing people in our countries has given him a license to kill more and at a much higher scale of death.  He moved up from Litvinenko, to Berezovsky to Boston Bombing to MH370 and MH17.  So he is showing a progression in the number of people killed and his willingness to kill larger numbers of people at once in ways more evident such as MH17.
  15. Putin is showing he is the master of life and death even in our own countries and whether of individuals such as Litvinenko and likely Berezovsky as well as groups such as Boston Bombing, MH17 and MH370.
  16. Putin has pwned our security services and governments to use the Urban Dictionary.
  17. Putin’s ability to dominate our security services and pull one after the other killing over it so that it can’t openly say he did it is of particular importance to Putin as a KGB light colonel.

 

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Russia claims sanctions undermine the fight against terrorism

July 26, 2014

Russian foreign ministry says that sanctions “undermine the fight against terrorism” according to Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-sanctions-idUSKBN0FV0CC20140727

Russia has been causing terrorist incidents to make this case? Boston bombing, the Volgograd bombings, MH370 and MH17?

The Russian plan was to have Chechens commit terrorism in Boston in 2013 and then reinforce that with Volgograd bombings before the Sochi Winter Olympics to create the idea in Western minds that we need Russia to help us fight Chechen and Muslim terrorism?

Did Russian private security companies like Mongoose aka Mangust help prime terrorism from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the Boston bombing? Also help cause the MH370 terrorism?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


MH17 MH370 pair probability v single v conditional v unconditional

July 26, 2014

How should we think about the MH17 and MH370 events in probability terms?

One way is we take the MH370 as given. We also take the shoot down in Eastern Ukraine as given. We then ask what is the chance that the plane model will match. We simply count the number of times that model crosses Eastern Ukraine in some reference time, e.g. each day, and divide by the total number crossing. That could be total number of commercial planes or some other set.

We can also require the plane match on airline and model. So we take the Malaysian 777 and the same model and divide by number of commercial crossings, if that is our choice as comparison.

We could at this point, also look across all war zones and ask what is the chance that in any war zone, the model matches to 777. Or that it matches to Malaysian Airlines and the model 777.

We might also think about the issue of probability per unit time and the time unit we should use to aggregate.

We can also do a sort of reverse conditional probability.

We can take as given that it was a Malaysian 777 that went down in Eastern Ukraine. We then ask what is the chance that the plane that disappeared would match on the model and airline? So we take every commercial airplane in the world, say it is 100,000. Then count the number of Malaysian 777′s, say 10. So we have 10/100,000 or 1/10,000.

We could also ask what is the chance that some commercial flight crossing Eastern Ukraine would match to such a disappearing plane, now randomizing over both. So we are asking a pair probability.

For each flight crossing Eastern Ukraine, we then compute the chance it would match another plane disappearing of that airline.

We could also require that the destination airport match. MH17 was headed to Kuala Lumpur the same airport that MH370 flew out of. We can require that match in our probability question.

We could also expand to include all war zones in the world not just Eastern Ukraine. We could also consider over time. Why has this never happened before? Presumably, however we do the probability, the pair probability is low for this type of matching of the model and the airline and airport.

As we think in these terms, it seems the chance that the Russians didn’t plan both planes together before either plane went down is lower.

Some ideas on number of Boeing aircraft from following article.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Commercial_Airplanes

Number United Airlines.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines

The location of Kuala Lumpur seems special. It is a destination of a flight from Europe over Eastern Ukraine and it is ideal for an aircraft to disappear into the oceans. It would seem few airports match such a pairing.

It seems more like this pair of aircraft were chosen by Russia from the beginning before either event happened.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Did Russia fear Pierre Wauthier was helping the French?

July 24, 2014

The following is very speculative and should be restated as questions.

Did Russia fear that Pierre Wauthier might be helping the French watch Josef Ackermann at Zurich Insurance Group in 2012 and 2013? Pierre Wauthier had worked for the French government out of university. The French had possibly terminated the Lyapunov Institute because they learned Albert Shiryaev, Freddy Delbaen, Darrell Duffie were meeting in Zurich and were advancing the cause of Russia. Russia would know if that was the reason.

So when Ackermann joined Zurich the French suspected he was there to follow up on this and get files for Russia. They might have had Wauthier try to watch this. Or Ackermann or Russia may have feared it or come to fear it when there was friction between Wauthier and Ackermann.

Ackermann and thus Russia would have gotten Wauthier’s file showing his government employment. That would alert them to this risk. Ackermann may have asked Wauthier about his service with the French government. This type of direction may have brought a response from Wauthier that Ackermann and the Russians interpreted as a threat to them.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Agnes Sulem Project 97-03 Mathematical Finance Lyapunov Institute INRIA questions

July 23, 2014

Questions for Agnes Sulem who was a co-head of project 97-03 Mathematical Finance of the Lyapunov Institute a joint project of INRIA France and Moscow State University.

https://team.inria.fr/mathrisk/research/

Reports for years 2000 to 2006 are missing.

Starting from 2007 they are present.

http://raweb.inria.fr/rapportsactivite/RA2007/mathfi/uid0.html

Were prior years ones with the collaboration with Albert Shiryaev and Moscow State University and Steklov Institute?

Were these reports given under the Liaupunov Institute?

Project 97-03. Financial Mathematics

Coordinators:

Prof. A.N. Shiryaev
Faculty of Mech. and Math., Moscow State University
Main Building, MSU, Vorobjevy Gory, 119992 Moscow, Russia
Tel: 7 (095) 939-14-03
Fax: 7 (095) 939-14-03
E-mail: shiryaev@mi.ras.ru

Prof. A. Sulem
INRIA, Domaine de Voluceau-Rocquencourt
BP 105, 78153 Le Chesnay Cedex, France
Tel: (33) 1-39-63-55-69
Fax: (33) 1-39-63-57-86
E-mail: Agnes.Sulem@inria.fr
Abstract:

The appearance of increasingly complex financial products requires the use of advanced techniques in the stochastic and numerical analyses that poses challenging problems for mathematicians. In this connection, the efforts of the French-Russian research team are focused on the following subjects: modeling of the price of assets by random processes; the stochastic control; dynamic portfolio optimization on incomplete markets; approximate hedging of derivative products and calibration of financial assets.

http://www.mathnet.ru/php/organisation.phtml?option_lang=eng&orgid=2674

http://liapunov.inria.msu.ru/ru/index.html

http://liapunov.inria.msu.ru/en/index.html

All traces of this project appear to be gone.

“Project 97-03″ “Financial Mathematics”

Why?

Because the Russians were using it for spying and kompromat? The French government realized this sometime in the mid 2000s decade? Then shut it down? The Mathrisk project under Agnes Sulem alone then picked up in 2007 with no reference to the prior version of the project?

Albert Shiryaev was in Zurich sometime in 1997 to 1999 in association with Freddy Delbaen of the ETH.

Albert Shiryaev site:ethz.ch

http://www.math.ethz.ch/finance/talksWS1998.html

Friday, February 5, 1999, 15.15 h (ETHZ, Hermann-Weyl-Zimmer, HG G43)
Albert N. Shiryaev (Steklov Mathematical Institute, Moscow)
An extension of the distributional Paul Lévy theorem with applications to the behaviour of financial prices

(Seminar for Financial and Insurance Mathematics, ETHZ)

This page at INRIA was not removed.

http://www-sop.inria.fr/members/Alain.Dervieux/liapunov.html

Why is math finance so carefully removed but this is not? Because math finance is where the spying was?

Compare this

adresse : Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov, Université de Moscou, Bâtiment E, Vorobyevie Gory, 119899 Moscou, Russie
téléphone +7 095 932 89 53, fax +7 095 932 89 52
Directeur russe : Alexandr Borissovitch Ugolnikov, ugo@vertex.inria.msu.ru
Directeur français : Pierre Népomiastchy, Relations Internationales de l’INRIA,
téléphone +33 1 39 63 56 46, fax +33 1 39 63 50 80, Pierre.Nepomiastchy@inria.fr

Liste des projets de l’Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov
(mise à jour juillet 2002)
AS = Académie des Sciences de Russie

Mathématiques financières
SULEM Agnès (INRIA-Rocquencourt) SHIRYAEV Albert (Faculté de Méca & Maths, Université de Moscou)

Or the following for 2001/2002

Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov d’informatique et de mathématiques appliquées
Rapports scientifiques des projets pour l’année scolaire 2001/2002

Mathématiques financières

Project Participants

On the Russian Side:
1. A.N. Shiryaev – Project Leader; Professor, Moscow State University
2. O.V. Bogoslavsky – Student, Moscow State University
3. A.V. Bulinski – Professor, Moscow State University
4. A.S. Cherny – Senior Lecturer, Moscow State University
5. N.G. Khimtchenko – Scientific Secretary of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
6. Yu.A. Kuznetsov – Ph.D. student, Moscow State University
7. S.N. Lobanov – Student, Moscow State University
8. M.L. Nechaev – Research Assistant, Steklov Mathematical Institute
9. V.N. Tutubalin – Professor, Moscow State University
10. M.A. Urusov – Research Assistant, Moscow State University

On the French Side:
1. A. Sulem – Project Leader; Research Director, INRIA
2. S. Aspandiarov – Senior Lecturer, University Paris-V
3. V. Bally – Professor, Universities de Maine and INRIA
4. J. Jacod – Professor, University Paris-VI
5. M. Jeanblanc – Professor, University d’Evry-Val d’Essone
6. D. Lamberton – Professor, University de Marne la Vallee
7. B. Lapeyre – CERMICS, ENPC
8. D. Lefevre – Doctorant, INRIA
9. F. Legland – Research Director, INRIA Rennes
10. P. Malliavin – Academy of Sciences,
11. M. Mnif – Doctorant, INRIA and University Paris-VII
12. M. Yor – Professor, University Paris-VI

The main results

1) A.N. Shiryaev and A.S. Cherny investigated the relationship between thefollowing classes of processes that are important in the mathematicalfinance: a martingale with independent increments, a local martingale withindependent increments, a sigma-martingale with independent increments(see the paper by A.N. Shiryaev and A.S. Cherny “Vector stochasticintegrals and the fundamental theorems of asset pricing”).

2) A.N. Shiryaev and J. Kallsen have obtained rather general resultsconcerning the structure of the Esscher transform to be applied to the construction of the martingale measures (see the paper by J. Kallsen and A.N. Shiryaev “The cumulant processes and Esscher’s change of measure”).

3) A.N. Shiryaev and G. Peskir solved the problem of the quickestdetection of the “disorder” for Poisson processes (see the paper by G. Peskir and A.N. Shiryaev “Solving the Poisson disorder problem”).

4) A.N. Shiryaev and A. Sulem investigated the price structure and the optimal strategies in the barrier version of the Russian option(see the paper by L. Shepp, A.N. Shiryaev and A.Sulem “A barrier version of the Russian option”).

5) A.N. Shiryaev, M. Yor and A.S. Cherny investigated the limit behaviourof a “horizontal-vertical” random walk on a plane (see the paper byA.S. Cherny, A.N. Shiryaev and M. Yor “Limit behaviour of the horizontal-vertical random walk and some extensions of the Donsker-Prokhorov invariance principle”). This subject has arisen from the problems in the control theory, where one needs to gain the optimal strategy by changing the portfolio of securities (switching the markets).

6) A.N. Shiryaev and M. Yor have developed a new method for obtaining the stochastic integral representations of maxima and partial maxima of a Brownian motion. This is intended for the technical analysis. Similar investigations have been started for Levy processes.

7) A.A. Gushchin has developed a new method for obtaining the upper and thelower option prices. The method is based on the theory of the “statistical experiments”. This makes it possible to get, in effect, all the known particular cases (see the paper by A.A. Gushchin and E. Mordecki “Boundsfor option prices in the semimartingale market models”).

8) D. Lefevre studied the maximization of the utility function with the incomplete data (see the paper by D. Lefevre “An introduction to utility maximization with partial observation”).

9) V.N. Tutubalin compared the theoretical results of the mathematical finance with the methods that are used in the actual trading (see the paper by V.N. Tutubalin “Comparison of some models and results of the stochastic finance with the real financial data”).

10) M.A. Urusov has obtained the results dealing with the “technical analysis”of the financial index dynamics. In particular, he has found suboptimal stopping times that are the closest (in some metric) to the time when a Brownian motion attains its maximum (see the paper by M.A. Urusov “On theoptimal prediction of the time when a Brownian motion attains its maximum”).

Recent Publications

1) A.S. Cherny, A.N. Shiryaev, M. Yor.Limit behaviour of the “horizontal-vertical” random walk and some extensionsof the Donsker-Prokhorov invariance principle.//To be published in the Theory of Probability and Its Applications, 2002. A short version of the paper was published as a preprint in Laboratoire de Probabilités & Modèles Aléatoires, 676, 2001.

2) A.A. Gushchin, E. Mordecki. Bounds for option prices in the semimartingale market models.//Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute, 237 (2002).

3) J. Kallsen, A.N. Shiryaev. The cumulant processes and Esscher’s change of measure.//To be published in Mathematical Finance, 2002.

4) D. Lefevre. An introduction to utility maximization with partial observation.//Rapport INRIA, 2001.

5) G. Peskir, A.N. Shiryaev. Solving the Poisson disorder problem.//Advances in Finance and Stochastics. Essays in honour of DieterSondermann. Springer, 2002, p. 295-312.

6) L. Shepp, A.N. Shiryaev, A. Sulem. A barrier version of the Russian option.//Advances in Finance and Stochastics. Essays in honour of DieterSondermann. Springer, 2002, p. 271-284.

7) A.N. Shiryaev. Quickest detection problems in the technical analysis of the financial data.//Proceedings of the First International Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society. Springer, 2001.

8) A.N. Shiryaev, A.S. Cherny. Vector stochastic integrals and the fundamental theorems of asset pricing.//Transactions of the French-Russian A.M. Liapunov Institute, 2001, p. 5-37.

9) V.N. Tutubalin. Comparison of some models and results of the stochastic finance with the realfinancial data.//Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute, 237 (2002).

10) M.A. Urusov. On the optimal prediction of the time when a Brownian motion attains itsmaximum.//Russian Mathematical Surveys, 57 (2002), No. 1, p. 165-166.

So what happened to Project 97-03 Mathematical Finance of the French Russian A. M. Liapunov Institute? Why did this disappear? When? Who decided it? For what purpose?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Russia picked MH17 first and MH370 to be same airline?

July 21, 2014

Did Russia plan to bring down MH17 over Donetsk before MH370 disappeared? Russia looked at scheduled airlines over Donetsk before MH370 ever disappeared? Then they arranged MH370 to disappear? Then they planned the downing of MH17?

Viktor Vekselberg’s Renova has been assigned airports by Russia to manage. Mongoose operates in Central Asian countries. Could they have been involved in planning MH370? Was the planning done in Siberia to keep it secret?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Pierre Wauthier Josef Ackermann Decision Tree Suicide or Homicide

July 20, 2014

We can think of a decision tree to explore whether Pierre Wauthier committed suicide or was subject to a homicide.

If it was suicide, we then ask why and what caused it. We leave that for later.

If it was homicide, we ask who and how.

If it was a home invasion from the Swiss version of the hood, then how could they know to rig up the suicide note involving Ackermann, etc. So that seems out. If it was homicide, it was done by sophisticated agents who knew of the situation at Zurich Insurance Group.

It was not done by Ackermann or someone like that. It would have to be done by professionals.

Switzerland has so few homicides, they can’t really support a contract killing infrastructure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Switzerland

Switzerland has fewer than 100 homicides per year and many of those are immigrant related.

Gun related homicides are 3.8 per year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

This is not enough to support a contract killing industry. Nor to have sophisticated parties able to do a faked suicide that can pass a medical examiner.

Josef Ackermann was a colonel in the Swiss army.

http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2002-05-19/resume-josef-ackermann

The role of Swiss army colonels in Swiss business especially finance is legendary. However, it is not a group of Moscow oligarchs engaged in killing rivals.

Snowden’s revelations came in June 2013. Pierre Wauthier was killed August 26, 2013. So arranging a contract killing by someone not part of that industry would be difficult without it being picked up on phone or email detection in Europe. A business man not part of such a network already would not even try given the Moscow circus of Snowden in July 2013. That was a reminder of how difficult it is to evade detection by the authorities.

Moscow is a different story.

Hit Men Make a Killing in Hard Times
By Igor SemenenkoJun. 25 1999 00:00

Russia’s economic woes have put the cut-throat back into competition, with the first five months of 1999 seeing the incidence of contract killings double, Interior Ministry officials said Thursday.

Between January and May this year, 567 businessmen were slain on the orders of their competitors, compared to 232 such killings over the same period last year and 599 contract killings for the whole of 1998, according to police figures.

The figures also show contract “hits” are most common in the oil and gas, metals and banking sectors, said Akhmed Khairov, deputy head of the Interior Ministry’s major crimes section.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/hit-men-make-a-killing-in-hard-times/275693.html

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/hit-men-hired-through-ads/285985.html

Igor the Assassin is an SVR and former KGB officer who allegedly killed Alexander Litvinenko and escaped back to Russia.[1][2] He was among the members of a group consisted of the former KGB agents called ‘Dignity and Honor’.[3] According to one version of the Alexander Litvinenko poisoning, the official suspect of the murder, Andrei Lugovoi, only distracted the attention of Litvinenko, while “Igor the Assassin” placed the radioactive polonium into the cup of tea served for Litvinenko. “Igor the Assassin” was later seen on his way back to Russia in an airport in London.

His name and true identity remain unknown. He was said to be a former Spetznaz officer born in 1960 who is a Judo master and walks with a slight limp. He speaks perfect English and Portuguese.[4] Steven Wright of the Daily Mail reported that he was 46 years old in 2006.[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_the_Assassin

Alexander Zyurikov vice Chairman of Renova Group and head of Mongoose or Mangust Private Security could hire a person like Igor the Assassin. They need someone who speaks German well and preferably French and English as well.

Alexander S. Zyurikov
Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board, Director for Security Born in 1951.

Graduated from Omsk Higher School under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs,
Academy of Management under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs. Worked in detective force of law enforcement agencies in the Novosibirsk region, Uzbekistan, USSR/ Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Headed a branch directorate of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Since 1997 €“ General Director of OOO Mongoose-Service (private security firm).

Mongoose is more often known as Mangust.

http://www.mangust-ufa.ru/

MANGUST, SECURITY
Phone:
320185 (+73-320185)
City/Area:
Atyrau
Country:
Kazakhstan

http://kaz.soopage.com/company/MANGUST_SECURITY_4sX.html

Mangust LTD, OOO

Enlarge
Address
Ukraine, Kharkov region, Kharkov, 61058, st. Ivanovskaya, 3
Director
Kovalenko Tatyana Anatolevna
Internet
Site

http://3384.ua.all.biz/en/

MANGUST SECURITY LTD. Post index: 100128
Country: Uzbekistan
City: Tashkent
District: Shayhontohur
street !, 3а
City Code: 371
Phone: (+99895) 1445253; (+99890) 3160203

http://www.goldenpages.uz/en/company/?Id=67362&Map

So if there was a contract killing of Pierre Wauthier in Zug, Switzerland, the likely ones to do it would be contract men out of Russia. These would still require an intermediary, someone experienced. Someone like Alexander Zyurikov.

Entry into and departures from Switzerland around the time of August 26, 2013 can be done from computer records. The departures going out can use external records available to the US and UK even if Swiss entries are not.

So if it was not suicide, then it was likely a contract killing by sophisticated parties aware of the issues with Josef Ackermann. This means likely from Russia, whoever was behind it.

A contract killing out of Russia into Switzerland would be known to the FSB. So it would only be allowed if it helped Russia. That could include helping Russia’s plan in 2013 for invading Ukraine or to protect Putin’s assets held in other names in Switzerland such as Renova Group.

So if Wauthier was killed, we have eliminated a break in because of the suicide note about Ackermann requiring sophistication. We have eliminated a business person trying to do a casual hit men hiring given Snowden news everywhere. So we are down to an intermediary doing a contract killing out of Russia. That would be something like Renova Group, Mongoose Private Security and Alexander Zyurikov. This is not to say they did it, just someone like them if it was not suicide.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Boris Berezovsky death and Stanley Fischer set up Israel for blame

July 20, 2014

The death of Boris Berezovsky, for whatever cause or who was involved, and the move of Stanley Fischer from head of Israel’s central bank to Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve has set Israel up for blame in a terrorist event engineered by Russia in the United States especially in New York or Washington DC.

Stanley Fischer resigned unexpectedly at the end of January 2013. This was about a week after I sent an email to MIT asking them to investigate Stanley Fischer for plagiarism in his Ph.D. thesis, whether Russia used that to pressure IMF loans, and whether Aaron Swartz was trying to investigate that by downloading JSTOR files. I had used a much smaller set of JSTOR files downloaded in the normal manner to investigate that and help confirm it.

Boris Berezovsky was found dead near the end of March 2013 when he was scheduled to fly to Israel. Boris Berezovsky was the one behind use of kompromat on Stanley Fischer in the 1990s to get IMF loans for Russia and to use that money to fund the genocide of Chechens as Chechens see it. Larry Summers too was a target of that. For either Summers or Fischer to be appointed to the Fed, removing Berezovsky would be of benefit.

The security guard and only other person known to be around Berezovsky when he was found dead was Avi Navama

Avi Navama has over 15 years of experience in the security services both in the public and private sectors. As part of a Special Forces unit whilst in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Avi specialized in counter terrorism operations. He later joined the Israeli Security Agency, where he specialized in operational intelligence and the prevention of terror activity. Other specializations included the identification of risk throughout international arenas. Avi has subsequently been responsible for security at Ben-Gurion Airport, overseeing close protection security for the Israeli Prime Minister and various government ministers and was appointed the security attaché at the Israeli Embassy in London. Upon leaving the Israeli security services, he entered the private sector as a consultant and operational manager where he has managed large security projects in the UK and abroad for high profile clients for the past five years.

http://www.sqrgroup.com/our-people-sqr/

This biography lets Russia tie Israel to the death of Berezovsky and to any plot Russia cares to suggest about Israel getting Stanley Fischer to the Fed. That would include linking him to Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Fischer helps keep the US government from imposing sanctions on Israel is how that would be explained.

http://berlin-newscenter.com/world/1510-british-coroner-left-the-question-open-regarding-cause-of-berezovskys-death

The second day of hearing into the death of Russian businessman Boris Berezovsky is under way in the Town Hall in the British city of Windsor. According to published data aafter expert examination, a scarf found at the scene could have served as the means for the entrepreneur’s suicide.

“Both parts of the torn scarf coincide. Fibers from both parts are identical, many fibers, identical to the material of the scarf, were also found both on a shower rail and on the clothes of Mr. Berezovsky, including the area of the neck and shoulders.

The examination ascertained that the scarf was torn as a result of the application of force, which can be explained by Mr. Berezovsky’s weight,” coroner Peter Bedford read out the examination’s conclusion during the inquiry into the businessman’s death.

Opponents of the suicide version believe that the scarf was too thin to bear Berezovsky’s weight. An independent forensic expert, Robert Bone, found that the scarf was able to bear the weight of the body and become the instrument of suicide.

“Whatever force was used, whether gradually or abruptly, the scarf could bear the weight of the body,” Bone said answering Bedford’s questions.

“I constantly ask myself: Was everything taken into account during the investigation? And I have a feeling that not all the questions have answers. Not everything is clear in this case. For example, it was only yesterday that, thanks to my questions, we found out that the bathroom could be locked from both sides. If I had not asked questions, everybody would have thought that it was only possible to lock the bathroom from the inside,” Elizabeth Berezovskaya concluded her testimony.

Voice of Russia, RIA, Interfax

Notice how Voice of Russia reports this little known fact about the bathroom door being lockable from both sides. That is important to any conspiracy theory to kill Berezovsky.

The torn scarf means Berezovsky fell. If he was killed, this fall would explain any bruises or fractures found later in killing him. Obviously, they could not do a medical examination after killing him, so this technique would cover that. This is the sort of technique Israel or Russia would know. They would know how to kill him so that the bruises or fractures could be explained by the fall from the broken scarf.

Avi Navama, Mr Berezovsky’s bodyguard of six years, told the inquest at Windsor Guildhall that he was “very low” and “depressed” in the last four months of his life but seemed “different” in the final two days before he died.

Speaking of when he last saw him, the night before he died, Mr Navama said: “He looked at me with very low, tired eyes.

“Like he doesn’t know what to do.”

He said that later that night he collected Mr Berezovsky’s son, Gleb, from school and got a text from his boss thanking him, which he thought “strange”.

Police confirmed the Russian exile’s cause of death was “consistent with hanging”.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boris-berezovsky-inquest-tycoon-left-3286994

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/26/boris-berezovsky-death-strange-colour_n_5034611.html

The tycoon’s lifeless body was discovered slumped on the floor by his bodyguard at his ex-wife’s luxury property in Ascot, Berkshire, on March 23 last year.

However a paramedic who attended the scene said there were some “strange” elements to the incident, including the colour of Mr Berezovsky’s body.

The witness said: “In my experience normally when we go to patients in these circumstances they tend to be quite pale. I felt that the colour was quite a deep purple.”

Paramedic John Pocock added that he received a phone call to say that police were warning of “hazardous materials” being present in the property and a “warning tone” went off on the alarm he carried to detect levels of background radiation.

He said he spoke to Avi Navama, Mr Berezovsky’s bodyguard of six years, who “indicated that he wasn’t aware of any radiation” and advised him to leave the mansion, as he did.

Mr Pocock said: “It may have just been a faulty meter.

This helped slow down the investigation presumably and possibly the examination of the body.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/26/boris-berezovsky-death-strange-colour_n_5034611.html

“I don’t believe it was suicide,” he states. “My friend would not have taken his own life.”
Despite the evidence pointing to a suicide, the discovery of Mr Berezovsky’s body at his home last Saturday led to immediate speculation that, once again, the long reach of President Vladimir Putin was behind the death of one of his inconvenient critics.
Mr Zakayev, the exiled “Prime Minister” of the Chechen Republic, bitter enemy of President Putin and a close friend and confidante of Mr Berezovsky, has more reason than most to believe this.
After all, he was himself the target of an assassination plot in London, revealed by MI5 in April last year. It is the very frequency of these incidents that makes him doubt the theory that Mr Berezovsky took his own life. And certainly, with the death of Mr Berezovsky, President Putin has lost one of his most high-profile opponents.

It was against this background that his bodyguard, not having seen Mr Berezovsky for several hours and growing increasingly anxious, broke down the bathroom door around 3pm last Saturday and discovered his lifeless body.
But such is the level of anxiety and distrust among opponents of the Russian president that the conclusion that Mr Berezovsky did indeed take his own life in a moment of despair has been greeted with scepticism and disbelief.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9962460/Boris-Berezovsky-My-friend-Boris-would-not-have-taken-his-own-life.html

The body of the Russian oligarch was found by his bodyguard on the bathroom floor of his Ascot home. A ligature was round his neck and a piece of the same material was tied to the shower rail above his body.
The opening of the inquest into his death, held at Windsor Guildhall last Wednesday, heard that there had been no signs of a violent struggle.

Also this:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/former-wife-of-boris-berezovsky-suspicious-billionaire-committed-suicide-inquest-hears-9217268.html

Berezovsky’s body was discovered on a bathroom floor in his residence on Saturday, after the tycoon’s employee forced open the door, which had been locked from the inside, police said in a statement.

Berezovsky was left unguarded for five hours on the day of his death before being discovered, the Telegraph reported.

According to the tycoon’s bodyguard, Berezovsky was alone at home from 10:00am to 3:00pm on Saturday, as his bodyguard, former Mossad agent, went to run errands.

Berezovsky was reportedly last seen alive on Friday at 10:30pm when he gave out a list of errands to the bodyguard, who was the tycoon’s last protection.

When the bodyguard returned he saw a number of missed calls on Berezovsky’s phone, which was left downstairs. He then forced open the bathroom door and discovered the deceased body lying on the floor. Berezovsky was fully dressed, and there was no blood and no suicide note.

http://rt.com/news/berezovsky-death-consistent-hanging-829/

No matter what happened, Russia can blame Israel for Berezovsky’s death and tie it to Israel covering up Stanley Fischer’s plagiarism and funding IMF loans to Chechens, even admitting Berezovsky pressured Stanley Fischer to get the IMF loans.

Senator Schumer was the one who prevailed on the Senate Banking Committee to confirm Stanley Fischer after the long pause during which the Federal Reserve and likely FBI received information about Stanley Fischer’s plagiarism and Russia’s use of it. Schumer said he would add a statement on Stanley Fischer at the hearing of the confirmation vote in 2014. Russia can further tie Schumer to the plan to get Fischer as fed vice Chairman and thus tie Israel even more to this and to the coverup of Stanley Fischer funding the Chechen genocide with IMF loans. That can then justify a Chechen terrorist attack on the New York Fed or Washington DC Fed, possibly using a stolen nuke or radioactive material.

Israel would have little defense. They knew of the plagiarism. David Levhari in Israel also likely plagiarized Hakansson and was part of the conspiracy to keep him from getting credit. Levhari supported Fischer for the central bank job in Israel in an essay.

TN Srinivasan, the coauthor with David Levhari was at an earlier SIEPR at Stanford and Fischer got 100,000 from Stanford SIEPR in 2013 despite knowing his plagiarism of Hakansson and Russia’s use of it to get IMF loans. Elements of Stanford can be blamed as part of the conspiracy to get Stanley Fischer confirmed. The Senate Banking Committee helped set this up by confirming Stanley Fischer after they got information in secret about this.

The Fed is under jurisdiction of the Senate Banking Committee which has Chuck Schumer as a member, in fact a very influential one and one who pushed the Stanley Fischer appointment despite the committee learning of all this. That was after Berezovsky’s death.

Thus in a Nuke the Fed attack by Chechen terrorists at the Fed in NYC in FiDi or at Washington DC, Israel can be blamed as well as elements of the US government for covering up Stanley Fischer’s role in funding the genocide of the Chechen people in the 1990s.

The Boston Bombing attack has already set up in the US public’s mind that America can be a target by Chechens. So this would all tie together and be accepted, or at least Russia thinks so. So they can supply a nuke or nuclear material to a Chechen group in Kazakhstan and then report it as stolen to the US FBI and UK MI5 and then say we told you so just like after the Boston Bombing in 2013.

Russia can then say lift your sanctions on us so we can help you investigate these terror groups from Central Asia including states bordering Afghanistan or in the region. This includes Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan where, by the way, Vekselberg’s Renova Group’s Mangust or Mongoose Private Security has offices.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


July2014X A Muslim group steals a nuke in Kazakhstan? Nuke NYC Fed?

July 20, 2014

One possibility for July2014X the event happening while we focus on Mh17 and Gaza could be that a Muslim group in Kazakhstan gets hold of a Russian nuke. Russia could have reported the nuke as stolen or missing already to the United States and United Kingdom.

Russia could document a trail to be discovered later of this group getting the nuke in July 2014 in Kazakhstan. Later the nuke is moved to New York City and exploded in the Financial District near the World Trade Center. This might happen in 2015. Possibly outside a mosque or inside one in FiDi near old WTC. In the meantime, Russia could do more fake Chechen bombings in Russia such as in Volgograd to make them seem like a victim too.

After the nuke in NYC, Russia then says, so sorry, we told you about that nuke being stolen and missing. They also gave us a list of Muslim groups operating in Kazakhstan or have already.

Boston Bombing April 15, 2013 may have been a dry run for such a nuke run in NYC. They could test our investigation skills. Revealing Snowden also helps keep their proxy Muslim group from using telephones or emails to communicate.

Russia might do this if we put on heavy sanctions on it over Ukraine or over MH17.

Russia says after the nuke they will cooperate with us to track down the real terrorists, but we have to lift our sanctions on them so they have the funds to do it.

Volgograd bombings are another part of conditioning us to accept such a New York City nuke scenario. They say we have terrorists too.

They even link the attack to Muslims from Crimea and say it is revenge over Crimea and if America had not made such a big deal, the Chechens would not have felt entitled to retaliate.

Stanley Fischer can fit into such a scenario. The Muslim group could say that Fischer had funded the Chechen genocide with IMF loans in the 1990s. They say he did it to cover up his plagiarism that Russia knew about. They further say the Senate Banking committee and Schumer of New York knew about the plagiarism and that it was a key factor in Russia’s genocide of Chechens.

They can even set the nuke off close to the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. This way they can tie it to Stanley Fischer being appointed Vice Chairman. This may have been part of Russia’s plan all along if they are partly responsible for Stanley Fischer being made vice Chairman, perhaps in some deal with Israel, although Israel presumably would not know about the nuke the Fed in NYC part.

The Russians have to make it plausible that the Chechens would nuke the Fed in NYC instead of attacking Russia with it. The Boston Bombing of April 2013 does that. That already makes Americans accept that they are a target for Chechens.

The death of Boris Berezovsky helped set this up, because they took him out of the way to tell what is going on, particularly about Stanley Fischer. Berezovsky was a professor at Institute of Control Sciences V.A. Trapezian Moscow.

http://www.ipu.ru/en

The Stanley Fischer thesis plagiarism was in the same area of math as this institute works on and where Berezovsky was a professor in 1970s and 1980s.

Note Berezovsky’s “suicide” involved a locked bathroom door that could be locked from both sides. It involved a scarf that came apart so that Berezovsky fell. That would explain any bruises or fractured bones found later. His security guard was from Israel.

Avi Navama was the security guard at Berezovsky home and only person there other than Berezovsky we know of.

http://www.sqrgroup.com/our-people-sqr/

Avi Navama has over 15 years of experience in the security services both in the public and private sectors. As part of a Special Forces unit whilst in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Avi specialized in counter terrorism operations. He later joined the Israeli Security Agency, where he specialized in operational intelligence and the prevention of terror activity. Other specializations included the identification of risk throughout international arenas. Avi has subsequently been responsible for security at Ben-Gurion Airport, overseeing close protection security for the Israeli Prime Minister and various government ministers and was appointed the security attaché at the Israeli Embassy in London. Upon leaving the Israeli security services, he entered the private sector as a consultant and operational manager where he has managed large security projects in the UK and abroad for high profile clients for the past five years.

Berezovsky fell through the scarf it is claimed and hit the floor of the bathroom and/or tub, sink, etc. So any bruises can be blamed on the fall. Israel has the sophistication to know how to do that. So does Russia.

This is not to claim Mr. Navama was involved, just to stimulate the mind. Russia could say he was later even if he had no involvement. The above paragraph is enough for Russia to blame Berezovsky’s death on Israel and then try to mix Israel into the events. They could try to tie Israel to the Boston Bombing somehow and the later incident.

Stanley Fischer also links Israel to the Chechen genocide. Israel then made Stanley Fischer chairman of their central bank. So a Chechen attack in New York, which has a large Jewish population, can also be tied to Chechen resentments against Israel. It can also be tied by Russia to what is happening in Gaza by any Muslim group.

Remember, Russia blamed the CIA after the Boston Bombing for 1990s activities involving Harvard prof Andrei Shleifer. Even if Berezovsky died of natural causes, Russia can use the above to blame Israel and then blame Israel for the nuke. Perhaps there will be a private security company involved in the post event evidence trail with links to Israel.

Russia can present some twisted theory that will be acceptable to conspiracy theorists. The MH17 shoot down was likely planned so that conspiracy theorists would have plenty to work on. If necessary, Russia could stimulate it itself with social media.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Wauthier Ackermann Renova Group some notes

July 19, 2014

This is very speculative and hypothetical.

Suppose for whatever reason that Josef Ackermann had wanted to cause the death of Pierre Wauthier.  How would he do it?  He couldn’t buy a copy of Soldier of Fortune and call an ad in the back.  That would probably get law enforcement.  Given what we know from Snowden, the chances are any such telephone number is monitored by the NSA and other country agencies.

A person like Ackermann doesn’t deal with the type of people who do this sort of work.  If he did get someone not a cop, they would blackmail him. It would be worse than whatever Wauthier could say about him.

Someone like Ackermann needs not just a referral but an intermediary who can handle the hiring and payment of the team to do the job.  Renova Group has a Russian private security firm linked to it, Mongoose or Mangust. It operates from Kiev, Ufa Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Mongoose is run by Alexander Zyurikov who is vice chairman of Renova Group.  So if Ackermann had needed such help he could go to Vekselberg and Zyurikov and then Zyurikov would arrange it.  Mongoose then would hire someone else through say its Kazakhstan office.

A team would enter Switzerland do the work and leave.  If it involved surveillance, they would need access to Wauthier’s home, work computer, cell, etc. That would probably be a different team.

The team that would do the job on Wauthier might also remove any listening devices.  They might however, foul that up. Or leave them there to see what happened afterwards.  Logically, those would be removed before Renova Group announced that Ackermann was joining their team.  However, what if they fouled it up?  Left something?  Then while everyone is looking at Ukraine, they might send in a team to remove anything left.

We see that to manage this sort of operation in a case like this, it involves an intermediary who can manage such people on an ongoing basis.  So it takes something like a Mongoose with offices in remote places like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan or Ufa Russia that are beyond Western law enforcement or even spy agencies to operate in.

So if someone like Ackermann was to be the decision maker to start this, he would have to use contacts like Renova Group or similar contacts in Moscow to do it.  Russia would then have that on him as leverage going forward.  He would have sold his soul to them, if he hasn’t already.

This is not intended to suggest in anyway that Ackermann is responsible for Wauthier’s death in this way.  This is simply used as a straw man to discuss hypothetically.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

 

 


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