Madeleine McCann 8:30 Sunset Kidnap After

September 11, 2007

On May 3, 2007 sunset in Lisbon was 8:30 P.M. This was the time that Gerry and Kate McCann met their friends for dinner.

Aerial photo showing how easy to kidnap the child:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/graphic/0,,2080741,00.html

The police theory is

  1. There was an accidental death before 8:30 P.M.
  2. The parents hid the body before sunset
  3. No one saw them
  4. They did it without a car (the rental was 25 days later)
  5. They had no hiding place.
  6. They had a fixed time limit to act.
  7. They had no plan since it was accidental.
  8. They had no experience in hiding a body in Praia da Luz Portugal so as to be hidden for a month or more.

Compare this to a stranger:

  1. There was a planned kidnapping after sunset, 8:30 P.M.
  2. The child was taken after sunset
  3. Jane Tanner saw the man around 9:15 to 9:30 P.M.
  4. They did it with a car
  5. They had a hiding place including their house.
  6. They had no fixed time to hide the body.
  7. They had it all planned.
  8. They may have been experienced at this.

Given the body was never found, and the police claim it was moved at the earliest 25 days after the May 3, 2007 disappearance, its unlikely the McCanns could have hid the body during daylight without a car in the complex or nearby where the police searched in the days following.

The parents can’t speak Portuguese? Another strike against them.

If each point has a factor of 1/2, i.e. its 1/2 as likely in the police as in the alternative, we get 1/2 to the power of 8 or 1/256. If each factor is 1/10, then the police theory has relative likelihood of 10 to the power -8.

If we include the language factor as another one, we get 1/512 with one estimation or 10 to the power -9 with the other. If we split the difference in log terms, we have a relative likelihood of the police theory of less than 10 to the power -4 relative to abduction.

See more at

http://oldatlanticlighthouse.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/arrogant-gringo-kate-mccann-made-suspect-in-police-payback/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/12/nmaddy112.xml

Police prepared to dig up recently-laid roads in the resort town of Praia da Luz to search for Madeleine’s body.

• A “substantial amount” of Madeleine’s hair was said to have been found in the boot of the McCanns’ hire car.

• Sources claimed that forensic evidence pointed to Madeleine’s body being hidden in the car’s spare wheel well.

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2 Responses to “Madeleine McCann 8:30 Sunset Kidnap After”


  1. The only problem with your abduction theory is that Jane Tanner changed her story on numerous occasions and that no one else saw the man she claims to have seen.

    There was no sign of a break-in, or evidence of an intruder in the room.

    And does not explain why there would appear to be a 35 minute period between finding the child missing and ringing the police; during which they possibly rang the British Ambassador.

    In addition all the timings are speculative with reagrd to the movements of the McCann party, since there is some dispute about the routine of checking, with some witnesses reporting that no one left the table all evening.

  2. Cathy Says:

    If the parents harmed Madeleine, why sound the alarm that evening? Why not wait until sometime later, say in the early morning hours of the next day, and report that they woke up to find the child missing? Reporting it when they did only calls a huge amount of attention to and criticism of the fact that they left the children alone while they were dining out. The people they were with that evening of course knew the children were left alone, but in my scenario, leaving them alone didn’t cause any problems, the “disappearance” happened AFTER they had returned from dinner. This make me think it’s quite possible that a) they came home to find Madeleine missing or b) came home and found her dead. How could they possibly go out to dinner with friends, leaving the twins alone if they had only hours before harmed Madeleine?


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