Wednesday, November 15, 2006; Page A13
“VIENNA, Nov. 14 — New traces of plutonium and enriched uranium, potential material for atomic warheads, have been found at a nuclear waste facility in Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Tuesday, as Iran’s president boasted that his country’s nuclear fuel program would soon be…”
Iraq battle phase deaths were under 200. The time to fight wars is when our losses are 200 or even 2000 not 200,000 or 20 million. A ground invasion may cost fewer US deaths than bombing alone because a ground war increases our options to strike their counter strike options, but doesn’t give them more ability to strike our ships in the region.
They will hold back missiles to use on our ships. To root out those missiles we need ground troops. We don’t want carriers going down from their missiles. That will cost us far more lives than using ground troops from the start.
== Comment 2
The longer things go along, the higher the chance something will happen.
The Joint Chiefs recommended using force in the Cuban Missile crisis. We now know the Soviet commander had tac nukes and would have used them. Kennedy didn’t go along with the chiefs because of the Bay of Pigs. So it was probably 50/50 or higher that we would have had a nuclear war, and we got lucky.
With Iran, the ways of thinking are more different, and so war is far more likely than with the Soviets.
A bombing run on them will leave them with missiles and other forces including subs. Over time they will get one or more of our carriers. We have fewer deaths if we do a ground invasion and get it over. This cuts off the clock. That lowers the probability of bad outcomes for us. This applies to their missiles and their nukes.
Like Pakistan, they will sell what they have to make money, for ideology, to create an alliance against us, and because they don’t think like we do. Nuclear programs leak from the top, A Q Khan, middle, Klaus Fuchs, and bottom, David Greenglass.
We are overrun with spies in our universities, high tech businesses, H1B programs, etc. Why do we think it will be different for Iran when it isn’t for Pakistan?
This article represents hypotheses, speculation or opinion. All other disclaimers apply.