“Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia“. In September 2005 he coauthored a CSIS reporting saying that only 12 percent of foreign fighters in Iraq were Saudi. The CSIS source is a report by Obaid from what seems to be a Saudi entity. Obaid’s job as a consultant to Saudi intelligence is to write reports that say Saudi Arabia is not linked to terrorism?
Lisa Myers at NBC on June 20, 2005 and Susan B. Glasser Washington Post on May 15, 2005 reported that over 50 percent of the foreign fighters in Iraq were Saudi. See bottom for more on this. This Obaid CSIS “study” is disinformation to try to get the MSM to drop its own careful reporting.
Nawaf Obaid Adjunct Fellow, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy “Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project.”
The Obaid CSIS report is titled:
Saudi Militants in Iraq: Assessment and Kingdom’s Response
Saudi Militants in Iraq: Assessment and Kingdom’s Response -pdf
It cites the “Saudi National Security Assessment Project” as its source. Obaid is the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project.
“Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project.”
The title of the CSIS report sounds like a Saudi employee or consultant of the Saudi government wrote it.
It seems likely that Obaid’s job for Saudi intelligence as a consultant is to convince the West that Saudi Arabia is not linked to terrorism. So he writes a CSIS report under CSIS, which is linked to Carlyle group, and he cites his own Saudi National Security Assessment Project as the source of the analysis.
It in turn analyzed data from Saudi intelligence according to page 5 of the above report. It appears Obaid is the one who was paid by Saudi intelligence to do this data analysis of Saudi intelligence non-public data. The result according to Obaid is that only 12 percent of foreign fighters in Iraq are Saudi.
posted September 23, 2005 at 10:30 a.m.
search Saudi foreign fighters Iraq
The ‘myth’ of Iraq’s foreign fighters
Report by US think tank says only ’4 to 10′ percent of insurgents are foreigners.
By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com
Brian Whitaker and Ewen MacAskill
Friday September 23, 2005
“Mr. Carlucci has been a managing director of the Carlyle Group since 1989, chairman since 1993, and chairman emeritus since 2003.” “Mr. Carlucci graduated from Princeton University and attended Harvard Business School.”
Saudi intelligence reports sent through Saudi entities to the CSIS are like “salted peanuts” to the Washington establishment. The 9-11 Commission of Kean Hamilton that ignored the 2003 Congressional report finding links between the Saudis and the 9-11 hijacker was one big jar of “salted peanuts”.
“However, interrogations of nearly 300 Saudis captured while trying to sneak into Iraq and case studies of more than three dozen others who blew themselves up in suicide attacks show that most were heeding the calls from clerics and activists to drive infidels out of Arab land, according to a study by Saudi investigator Nawaf Obaid, a US-trained analyst who was commissioned by the Saudi government and given access to Saudi officials and intelligence.”
== News Reports that foreign fighters are Saudi
“NBC 55 percent Foreign Fighers Saudi in Iraq”
“By Lisa Myers & the NBC Investigative Unit Updated: 8:39 p.m. ET June 20, 2005 Who are the foreign fighters in Iraq? An NBC News analysis finds 55 percent hail from Saudi Arabia Lisa Myers Senior investigative correspondent
• Profile An NBC News analysis of hundreds of foreign fighters who died in Iraq over the last two years reveals that a majority came from the same country as most of the 9/11 hijackers — Saudi Arabia.””
The NBC News analysis of Web site postings found that 55 percent of foreign insurgents came from Saudi Arabia, 13 percent from Syria, 9 percent from North Africa and 3 percent from Europe.
The U.S. military also says Saudi Arabia and Syria are the leading sources of insurgents. An Army official provided a list of the top 10 countries to NBC News but would not release the numbers of foreign fighters from each. The top 10, alphabetically, are: Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.”
If the army had evidence that Saudis were 12 percent, they would publish it. That they don’t is consistent with “Saudi” Arabia heading the list.
“‘Martyrs’ In Iraq Mostly Saudis
Web Sites Track Suicide Bombings
By Susan B. Glasser
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 15, 2005; Page A01
“In a paper published in March, Reuven Paz, an Israeli expert on terrorism, analyzed the lists of jihadi dead. He found 154 Arabs killed over the previous six months in Iraq, 61 percent of them from Saudi Arabia, with Syrians, Iraqis and Kuwaitis together accounting for another 25 percent. He also found that 70 percent of the suicide bombers named by the Web sites were Saudi.”
The apparent predominance of Saudi fighters on the Internet lists has caused an alarmed reaction by Saudi officials, who fear a backlash from the Americans at the same time they are trying to convince the United States that they are working as allies against terrorism. While Saudi officials do not deny that Saudi citizens have taken up arms against the United States in Iraq, they argue that the long lists of Saudi dead could be a disinformation tactic or simply a recruiting tool used to lure Arab youth to Iraq by convincing them of how many others have already won a place in Paradise.
“Are there Saudis in Iraq? Yes, we know that. Absolutely. But are there the numbers being bandied about? We really don’t believe so,” said a Saudi official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the subject.
“The Internet sites try to recruit people — it’s the best recruitment tool,” said Saudi security analyst Nawaf Obaid. Obaid, who has worked closely with the government, said he found 47 cases of Saudis who were dead or injured reported in the kingdom’s newspapers, far lower than Internet totals, and had concluded the overall number of Saudi jihadis in Iraq was in the hundreds. “But young guys, they read [on the Internet] we have thousands of Saudis there and think, ‘I have to go, too.’ “
Evan F. Kohlmann, a researcher who monitors Islamic extremist Web sites, has compiled a list of more than 235 names of Iraqi dead gleaned from the Internet since last summer, with more than 50 percent on his tally from Saudi Arabia as well. In some cases, he found photos or videos of dead foreign fighters posted online. One Kuwaiti policeman who died was featured in a Zarqawi propaganda video called “Winds of Change,” while the bloodied corpse of a Turkish al Qaeda disciple, Habib Aktas, was shown on another video celebrating his “martyrdom.””
Saudis one of top 5 captured by coalition forces.
This article is hypotheses, speculation, or opinion. All other disclaimers apply.