President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has in several talks, 60 Minutes, Charlie Rose, Columbia University and at the United Nations (UN) made it clear that Iran does not take the US, EU, IAEA, or the UN Security Council seriously. He has repeatedly indicated that he is toying with us.
As Charlie Rose pointed out in a broadcast from Monday Sep 24, 2007, taped before the Columbia remarks, Ahmadinejad is not answering questions, he is asking them. He doesn’t accept any obligation to be accountable to the world for what Iran is doing in secret. This is the same mentality as we have seen before in history and it has not led to peace, but war at the time and choosing of those acting in this way.
If we wait, we may see Iran have a new ally or guarantee at an unexpected moment as Germany did in 1939 with Russia. Putin models himself on Peter the Great and Stalin in respect to his foreign policy and ruthlessness. Putin brought back Stalin’s national anthem for the Soviet Union from WWII as the national anthem of Russia. The words are slightly different, but the music is the same.
To avoid war with Iran we must prepare for war with Iran. We must not repeat the mistake of Iraq of too little force. We should not make an airstrike on a country that we have ground forces next to, unless those ground forces are ready for a land invasion that would lead to a prompt victory for us at low cost. A large army is the way to guarantee that. Although our army likely could pull it off from where it is now, we would still limit our post war options and capability as well as increase our risk of higher losses.
The following program is the best to avoid war and defeat.
- Draft 2 million men.
- Congress should pass a set of conditions for Iran to avoid war. This should recognize that Iran has already committed acts of war against us and is doing so now.
- Congress and the President should appoint a bipartisan negotiating team under a Democrat. Richard Holbrooke would be a good choice. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid should choose the person, although Bush would have to appoint him.
- There should be a 6 month deadline.
- The negotiating team should go to Geneva and offer to meet with Iran there.
- At the end of 6 months, the team should report back to Congress.
- There would be a vote by Congress at this time on whether to authorize the president to engage in military action against Iran. This would be a ground invasion and full occupation.
We can call the above plan, Vote Draft Negotiate Vote (VDNV). This is a plan for unity. Unity helps us get what we want in negotiations because the other side sees that our reserve power is mobilized by our unity. We give the Democrats in Congress two votes. This lets them buy into the draft. Without the draft we can’t negotiate with credibility.
As discussed below, we need Neighborhood Escalation Dominance, the ability to fight the two main regional military powers, Iran and Pakistan, in order to negotiate with them and get what we want. Neighborhood Escalation Dominance, NED, is the way to get what we want in the region. Vote Draft Negotiate Vote is built around Neighborhood Escalation Dominance. Neighborhood Escalation Dominance is the engine that makes Vote Draft Negotiate Vote work.
Iran has shown in this visit that it does not take the US or the IAEA or UN seriously. Nicholas Sarkozy and Bush both made clear that Iran can not be allowed to have nuclear weapons and its current attempts to gain them mean war. Iran is supplying munitions against our troops in Iran and likely Afghanistan.
We can not avoid recognizing that we are at war with them, and that this is how they see it. We are at war with them, but neither fight them nor negotiate with them. We lack sufficient forces to make them believe we have an overwhelming advantage. But that is the way to either fight with them or negotiate with them.
Our current policy is aimed towards defeat by inaction or a spasmatic air attack. Like Israel’s air attack in Lebanon in 2006, we have not thought of what will happen after the air attack, we just assume victory. This is more irrational than our actions before the invasion of Iraq.
We are repeating the same mistakes we made in Iraq. We are not considering scenarios into the future. We fail to analyze what others and we will do after our next step. We have too little force.
We force our military to say we don’t need more men now, even though the plans the Pentagon prepared before Sep 11, 2001 all called for a vast increase in the military in time of war. We deserve to lose by our irrationality and refusal to reason or use the analytical resources we have already developed. We must wake up and stop repeating mistakes. We think we are invulnerable just as we did before 9-11. We won’t act now when it is easier. We are going to face a bad future because we don’t apply reason and refuse to allow anyone to discuss reality.
It is foolish for us to have men at war in Iraq and Afghanistan and not have a big enough army to deal with the contingencies. Iran is supplying munitions. But even if it isn’t, we should have a big enough army on hand to deal with Iran if Iran did supply munitions. The same applies to Pakistan supporting the Taliban.
In either case, neither Iran nor Pakistan thinks we have a big enough military. That is what leads to war, and to bad wars for us if they are right. They are gambling their grip on power on their assessment that we don’t have enough military. North Korea, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Libya are other countries we want to think we have enough military. We want Russia and China to think we have enough military for the Middle East and South Asia.
We have military in Afghanistan in combat and military in Iraq in combat. The insurgents are supported by Iran and Pakistan. We need a military big enough to deal with Iran and Pakistan at the same time. We need a draft of 2 million men. We needed this in 2001 when we went into Afghanistan next to Iran and Pakistan.
We need a military big enough to deal with the countries next to which we are fighting in combat operations, not just the country we are currently fighting in. This deserves the name of a doctrine. Neighborhood escalation dominance (NED) is a good name for such a doctrine. This is how we have credibility with those neighboring countries.
Because we didn’t have enough men to deal with Iran and Pakistan in 2001 when we went into Afghanistan which borders both, neither country has had to take us seriously enough for us to achieve our objectives. Instead they have felt free to thwart our objectives. Pakistan we even pay money too, despite their support of the Taliban, or possibly in their view, because of it.
Until we have Neighborhood Escalation Dominance we will lack credibility in the neighborhood. While we lack credibility in the neighborhood, we won’t be able to get what we want from the two main regional military powers, Iran and Pakistan. While we lack NED, the two main regional military powers will work against us, as they have and our now.
To achieve Neighborhood Escalation Dominance, we need to have a large enough military to deal with the neighborhood military powers at the same time. That means a draft of 2 million men or more. Our lack of NED is why we have had the trouble we have had. Our lack of NED is why from 9-12-2001 we have not achieved our goals. We need to learn from our mistakes. Instead we have a rule of silence about how much military we need. This rule of silence is on the military but also in Congress and elsewhere.
What is our current plan or method? We are following Serial Myopic Spaspatism, SMS. This has been our approach to the Middle East and South Asia since Franklin Roosevelt, if not Woordrow Wilson or even since we started paying ransom to the Barbary Pirates in the 18th century.
Spasmatism has had us do the following:
- Pay ransom to the Barbary Pirates in the 18th century.
- Fight wars with the Barbary pirates in the early 19th century.
- Send an expedition to get our hostages c. 1900.
- Accept immigrants from the regions since the 19th century.
- Be part of the Allied Coalition in World War I that followed similar myopic short term policies, that ignored genocide against Christians and Europeans that was continuous to anti-Christian, anti-European attacks since the 7th century.
- Deal with Saudi Arabia and Iran in WWII on a short term basis.
- Invade North Africa in 1942 and promptly ignore it in our strategy once we invaded Sicily and Italy.
- Support the Shah in the 1950′s as simply a current operation.
- Go from event to event in the Middle East and South Asia without recognizing what was happening in the region including the Islamic Awakening that started in the 19th century or a series of them lasting from at least the 19th century to the present, each one going to a higher peak than the previous one.
- Allowing the WTC 1993 attack and then continued Muslim immigration.
- Calling Islam a religion of peace after the 2001 attacks, and the 1998 and 2000 attacks.
- Invading Afghanistan while having insufficient military to deal with the neighboring powers of Iran and Pakistan.
- Invading Iraq with the same inability to deal with the neighboring military powers of Iran and Pakistan.
- The continuation of this policy to the present time in fighting insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan while not having sufficient military power to deal with the two neighboring powers.
Serial Myopic Spasmatism has been the approach of Europe to invasions from outside since the time of the Persian wars against the Greeks. It was the policy of the Roman Empire. It was the policy of Europe against the Caliphate from the 7th century to the fall of the Caliphate-Sultanate in WWI. Europe has been myopic and failed to recognize the need for overwhelming military power maintained on a constant basis towards this threat from the 7th century to now.
We have the choice of continuing Serial Myopic Spasmatism while keeping military forces in Afghanistan if not Iraq into the future or switching to Neighborhood Escalation Dominance. Vote Draft Negotiate Vote is the way to unify and mobilize our resources as we did in World War II. That is the way to get what we want by negotiation.
== Links to Ahmadinejad transcripts
== Nicholas Sarkozy
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons could destabilize the world and lead to war, French President Nicolas Sarkozy told the United Nations on Tuesday.