Israel blames Russia Iran S-300 missile deal on Obama

April 17, 2015

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/15/will-irans-new-russian-missile-system-make-airstrikes-impossible/

Official Israel went right ahead and laid the blame for Moscow’s decision squarely on the steps of the White House. In a call to Putin, Prime Minister Netanyahu decried that “the sale of advanced weapons to Iran is the result of the dangerous agreement that is emerging between Iran and the [six world] powers. After this arms deal [for the S-300 missiles,] is there anyone who can seriously claim that the [framework] agreement with Iran will increase the security in the Middle East?”

..

In case anyone didn’t get the message, Israeli media blared with headlines such as “The sale of the missiles is Obama’s failure” — attributed to Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, who, in fact, stopped just short of mentioning the American president by name.

This might raise an eyebrow among Washington Kremlinologists who are fretting over the unraveling ties between Putin and Obama.

Noga Tarnopolsky

Is this the purpose of the deal? Did Bibi and Putin agree to this announcement now to put pressure on Obama to do a better deal with Iran?

Jamestown Foundation is already using the deal in US to pressure Obama.

But Jamestown also says following.

The Kremlin has reported that several days ago, in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Putin spelled out at length Russia’s reasons for delivering the S-300s (Interfax, April 14). The Russian president apparently believes Israel to be important: the latter has not imposed any sanctions on Russia over the Ukrainian crisis and has been withholding any possible arms deliveries to the Ukrainians. During the national phone-in, Putin spoke about the Kremlin scrapping a contract to sell S-300 missiles “to one Arab nation [apparently Syria]” because it could have threatened to shoot down Israeli planes over Israeli territory. “We returned to this Arab nation a $400 million cash advance,” he stated (Interfax, April 16).

This supports the idea of an Israel Russia deal that embraces Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the killing of Berezovsky, the advancement of Stanley Fischer to entangle Obama in a coverup and Israel’s interests as well.  Russia shot down MH-17 at the same time as Israel did an operation against the Palestinians in Gaza is another manifestation of this linkage.

The author is Pavel Felgenhauer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Felgenhauer

Pavel E. Felgenhauer (Russian: Па́вел Евге́ньевич Фельгенга́уэр; born December 6, 1951) is aRussian military analyst who allegedly has insider sources in the Russian military.[1] He is known for his publications critical of Russia‘s political and military leadership.[2]

Felgenhauer was born in 1951 in Moscow, the Soviet Union; graduated from Moscow State University as a biologist[3] in 1975. He served as researcher and senior research officer in the Soviet Academy of Sciences (Moscow) and received his Candidate of Sciences degree in biology from the Academy in 1988. He is based in Moscow.

Moscow State University is involved in academic kompromat against Stanley Fischer and formerly against Paul Samuelson the uncle of Larry Summers. 1975 was the year that Kantorovich of the USSR got the Nobel Prize in economics from this kompromat. Samuelson and Fischer both plagiarized Nils Hakansson together in 1969, Samuelson got an NSF grant and Fischer his MIT thesis from which he derives his and his wife’s US citizenship.  Valery Makarov was likely involved then and is now head of the New Economic School Moscow. Sergei Guriev was rector of the NES and was at the Stanford SIEPR day that gave a 100,000 award to Stanley Fischer while he was under review by the Senate and while Stanford, MIT were concealing info about Fischer and Darrell Duffie’s linked plagiarism in the 1990s.  Guriev pretended to defect around the time of the CIA outings in Moscow but this is likely fake.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Guriev

Guriev got a degree from MIPT Phys Tech which is a very elite school in physics founded by Kapitsa who started plagiarism kompromat in the 1920s and Russia used it to help its atomic spy program and later get Nobel Prize nominations in physics.  This includes intentionally creating plagiarism incidents.  Fischer may have done that and so may Darrell Duffie as well as others in physics and economics.  Guriev’s area was in economics and finance including in the same area as the Stanley Fischer thesis plagiarism and the Duffie plagiarism.

“In 1997–98, he visited the Department of Economics at MIT for a one-year post-doctoral placement.”

This was a key year in Russia applying plagiarism kompromat against Stanley Fischer and Larry Summers.  Daniel Rubinfeld was Deputy Assistant Attorney General during that time and should have told the FBI what he knew from when he was at MIT in 1969.

http://www.debka.com/article/24531/Exclusive-Moscow-has-no-S-300-air-defense-missiles-available-for-Iran-Replacements-under-discussion

Why is the deal announced when Russia has no missiles to deliver?  Because right now will give maximum embarrassment to Obama?  Put the most pressure on Obama?

Is there an Israeli Russian understanding still? Is this part of the game?  Or is Russia outmaneuvering Israel?

Does Israel have countermeasures?  Does it have the software codes used in these missiles and radars?  Can it disable them or jam them?

Obama is exposed as a feckless fool by this Russia Iran deal.  It puts heavy pressure on Obama and Kerry to get a good deal or to strike Iran. Israel doesn’t want to strike Iran itself, it wants America to.  Israel would rather have America hit Iran with Iran having S-300 missiles than for Israel to hit Iran with Iran not having the missiles.  Is this a ploy to achieve that?

Why would Putin want the US to strike Iran?  To drag the US into war with Iran. That takes pressure off of Ukraine.  Even without that, the US needs Russia for sanctions on Iran.  So Putin wins leverage over the US and also puts his main enemy on a track for more quagmire in the Middle East.

Putin still wants revenge for US support of rebels in Afghanistan against Russia in the 1980s. Putin is still determined to even the score for the fall of the Soviet Union by bringing down America. Entrapping the US in a war with Iran helps do that.

Israel and Russia share a common objective to embroil the US in war with Iran.  Russia’s announced missile deal with Iran helps do that in multiple ways.  Israel and Russia appear to be working hand in glove on this. So does the Jamestown Foundation.

Russia, Israel and Jamestown Foundation all have interesting links to the Boston Marathon Bombing events.  In timing this appears to follow directly the death or killing of Berezovsky in March 2013 which followed the surprise resignation of Stanley Fischer in January 2013 after a request was made to MIT the previous week in January 2013 to investigate Fischer for plagiarism in his 1969 Ph.D, thesis and Russia using that as kompromat to get Nobel Prize nominations for Kantorovich from Paul Samuelson and Kenneth Arrow.

After the Boston Marathon Bombing came Russia outing the CIA station chief and a CIA agent in Moscow. That distracted attention. That was followed by Snowden’s run and Moscow airport show. That was followed by Larry Summers and then Stanley Fischer considered for the Fed, and Fischer’s nomination.

That was followed by Stanford SIEPR award to Fischer and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  This ties into the lower ratings for Ukraine by Moody’s than Standard and Poor’s. Stanford’s Darrell Duffie is chairman of MIS board of Moody’s with supervision over ratings of Ukraine and Russia.  Moody’s also gave better ratings to Russia than Standard and Poor’s.

So this Russia missile deal announcement appears part of Israel and Russia working hand in glove to kill Berezovsky it appears and move up Stanley Fischer to Fed vice chairman and do the other things. The end game appears to be to get the US embroiled in a war with Iran.

With the US embroiled in war with Iran, Russia can take Ukraine and even Baltic states and Israel can continue to squeeze Palestinians out of Palestine.  Thus Russia and Israel benefit all around.   This appears to be the case every step of the way.  We also note that Benjamin Netanyahu and Putin are talking over their secure line installed for them to coordinate actions it appears on this deal.

Putin also harbors a resentment towards the White race and Germanics especially.

Late Wednesday, Netanyahu, who was speaking at a ceremony marking Israel’s Holocaust Day, declared that “As the Nazis aspired to crush civilization and impose the rule of the superior race by exterminating the Jewish people,

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/15/will-irans-new-russian-missile-system-make-airstrikes-impossible/

Bibi uses language to show a conflict with the White Race and especially Germanic Race. Many Americans are of German ancestry and Anglo Saxons are also Germanic so that Netanyahu has animosity towards Americans and Brits not just Germans. This is why he feels no compunction in entangling America in war with Iran or perhaps in not giving America a warning before 9/11. (That however mostly killed Italian and Irish Catholics, who in any also died and lost legs in Iraq and Afghanistan in the US military.)

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Could 19th century pogroms in Ukraine be root of Israel Russia alliance?

April 12, 2015

Israel and Russia appear in many ways to have a secret alliance.  This includes Russia invading Ukraine and Israel having a free hand with Gaza and possibly to nuke Iran.  It also means some Russian cooperation in the talks with Iran. The killing of Berezovsky as it appears and promotion of Stanley Fischer appear to be part of such a deal.  Israel also didn’t vote against Russian invasion of Ukraine at UN surprising the US.

Pogroms in the 19th century against Jews started in Ukraine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Jewish_pogroms_in_the_Russian_Empire#1881.E2.80.9384

Could this be the basis of Israeli hostility to Ukraine?

Comment thread at very left wing Rawstory is full of hostile comments against Ukraine for removing Soviet era statues.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/04/soviet-era-statues-smashed-as-ukraine-likens-russia-to-nazis/

Many of these are New York Jews descended from the heavy wave of immigrants after these pogroms started in 1881 in Ukraine, Poland and Russia?  They freely equate Ukraine today with Nazis in toppling Communist statues.  Many of those Communists were Jews taking revenge on Ukraine in the Holodomor.

Stanley Fischer’s parents left Lithuania for Africa and he grew up in Rhodesia before going to London LSE and then to MIT where he plagiarized Swede Nils Hakansson.

Jews obviously are known for keeping alive and slight or injury they suffered in the past and justifying their harm to others in the present, no matter how cruel, based on it.  Thus the current destruction of Ukraine may fall into that pattern in terms of the Israeli participation as well as Stanley Fischer participating in this plot.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


We can’t understand Boston Marathon Bombing and aftermath except as war.

April 9, 2015

The Boston Marathon Bombing to many is inexplicable.  But to the Moslems who did it, it is a war that has gone on since the 7th century and is proclaimed in their Koran.  The reaction of the White cops, the shoot outs with so many bullets fired, the lock down of Watertown, and the shooting of Todashev is like the reaction to a spider.  The mind shifts not of our own choosing.

If we think of the BMB and the police reaction as war, it is easy to understand.  The Tsarnaev Brothers waged war on Boston.Their friends from Central Asia joined in that war without thinking about it.

The White Christian cops then reacted to this invasion.  That led to shooting Tamerlan, the shooting but not killing of Dzhokhar and later shooting of Todashev. As many Moslems as possible were deported like taking insects outside.

Many an attempt to analyze the motives of those involved fails because it doesn’t recognize the existence of this war and its change in the mental state of both sides.

The fundamental lesson of the Boston Marathon Bombing is not some change in police procedure or NSA computer code.  It is to expel the Moslems from America.  They don’t belong here because they are at war with us and our society can’t help but react to that fact.

Viewed in this way, everything that happened is simply acting our their parts in a war that has existed and continues on. This is also why White Christians trying to nation build Moslem nations is doomed to fail.  They are at perpetual war to the death with us. There is no nation building.  Neocons push a false ideology of nation building there just like of Moslem immigration here.

The DHS, FBI and police simply react to a real war with the responses of war.  That is what happened in the Boston Marathon Bombing aftermath including shooting Todashev.

Because our legal system won’t recognize this war and the remedy, to expel all Moslems, the FBI, DHS, NSA and even judges have to simply cover for those engaged.  That results in blatant lies and deceptions.  If these are treated as in a civil context, they are intolerable.  In a war the Congress won’t declare, it is what the FBI, DHS, police, prosecutors and judges have to do.  They are on the front lines and can’t pretend it is not war.

The trial of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev makes sense when seen this way. Tsaranev is at war with us and our entire system and all our people.  He wants to kill us all.  That is all he wants to say.

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev is not that interested in the contradiction in our society between the lies of Congress that deny the war with Moslem immigration and the police, FBI, DHS, NSA who wage the war in the real world.  So even though the prosecutors and FBI told many lies, picking them apart was not of interest to him.

It is of interest to agitprop specialists like CAIR.  But Dzhokhar lacks that sophistication.  So he just wants to fight.

The jury recognized this war coming and going. They will give the death penalty because Tsarnaev engaged in a cowardly attack in violation of the Christian West laws of war, but not of Moslem ones.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


The dogs that didn’t sniff. How did Tsarnaevs know when safe to plant the bombs?

April 8, 2015

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev found guilty on all 30 counts.  But there were bomb sniffing dogs at the start and finish.  The Tsarnaevs planted their bombs after the finish (for the top finishers).

How did Tsarnaevs know to avoid the start and finish times?  How did they know the time after the finish would be clear?

Did someone tip them off to the time to drop the backpacks, if they did? Or the time the bombs would go off?

http://www.sott.net/article/260912-Coincidence-Bomb-sniffing-dogs-and-spotters-on-the-roofs-were-at-start-finish-lines-for-drill-at-Boston-Marathon-bombing

Boston Marathon bombing bomb sniffing dogs

Were they just lucky?

If the dogs didn’t sniff, you must find who tipped.

According to some comments, the back pack color mystery was never resolved at trial.  The back packs the Tsarnaevs wore to not match the black color of the back pack exploded according to indictment.  There is still a mismatch between the tattered remains shown in court according to some.

This is a critical inconsistency.  Whose backpacks were the bomb backpacks?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Rosetta Stone of Boston Marathon Bombing is FBI Thursday April 18 2013 News Conference

April 7, 2015

We consider just a scenario here for contrast to the official story.

At this point, the FBI came out with its story.  They said it was done by Tsarnaevs, and that they didn’t know who they are or what their names were.  The FBI said that it had video of them planting the bombs.

If the FBI was lying at this point, then that is the key to unlock what happened.  We know the FBI was lying on having a video of the Tsarnaevs planting the backpack bombs.  We now know they had prior contact with the Tsarnaevs. There are reports of cops saying that they knew who the guys were and were waiting in Cambridge for them.

If the FBI knew who they were, then they were intentionally telling them to run instead of picking them up. That implies they wanted to kill them.  Which they tried to do.

The shooting of the MIT cop’s partner is too coincidental.  Perhaps the MIT cop was involved in helping set up the Tsarnaevs and had to be killed when he would not go along with a coverup?

The FBI agent who shot Todashev may have been part of setting up the Tsarnaevs in the Boston Marathon Bombing. Tamerlan Tsarnaev may have been the one who had contact with someone.

Todashev had to be killed in case he knew what had happened.

The FBI and DOJ have gone to extreme lengths to control the narrative, evidence and the Florida investigation as well as Congress.

This looks like an entrapment gone wrong.  Then when the bombs went off they had to kill the Tsarnaevs and anyone else who wouldn’t go along.

There were other suspicious deaths as well, the two officers who fell out of the helicopter later.

Too many deaths of law enforcement and of suspects and witnesses in this case.  Tidying up going on.

An interesting twist would be if somehow Russia was responsible for the mixup that led to the bombs going off instead of stopping the plot.  Perhaps a high level person in the FBI is a Russian agent and did that?

If the Russians were able to tip the entrapment scheme into a live operation that went off, then that would make the Boston Marathon Bombing fit into their timeline. That includes the death/killing of Boris Berezovsky in March 2013, the prior resignation of Stanley Fischer in January 2013 by surprise, the CIA outing in Moscow at the end of April, start of May 2013, the dispatch of fake defector Sergei Guriev, around the same time and the departure of Edward Snowden to Hong Kong and then Moscow airport.

Perhaps the Russians also had a hand in getting the US to force down the plane of the president of Bolivia Evo Morales. This is part of some of the strange airplane events of last few years?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


What is the best path through the Boston Marathon Bombing to Tsarnaev?

April 7, 2015

The skeptics of the Boston Marathon Bombing case have found many faults as they see it with the government case.

http://whowhatwhy.org/2015/04/07/why-we-fight-with-the-pen/

What path through the evidence is most favorable to the government’s case?

We could start with Dzhokhar Tsarnaev found alive in a boat in Watertown and Tamerlan Tsarnaev”s body when it arrived at the hospital.  Everyone agrees this happened.   The government would like to say at this point, this shows they were involved in the Boston Marathon Bombing itself.

The government would ask, why did they run when their pictures were on TV except that they were involved?

The government has found photos at the bombing scene.  In particular, the photos of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev at the Forum restaurant site.  These photos fall short of actually seeing him drop a backpack at that location.  However, they appear to show him coming with a backpack and leaving without one.

It is interesting we have such precise photos for the Tsarnaev on trial but not the for the one who died.  If they had been told to drop a backpack at the Forum restaurant, we might expect this.  This is a skeptics point.

Could the Tsarnaevs have run when their photos were put on TV without having been wittingly involved in the bombing?

The government says no.

The government says there was a fire fight with the two brothers. But they also claimed one at the boat, but now admit Dzhokhar had no gun at the boat, so all the shooting was by the government.

The government points to the records of the purchases by the brothers of the fireworks and pressure cookers and some unused remnants found in their belongings.

Skeptics point to the government having concocted many such plots that they foised onto the unwary.

Those killed in this case overall besides the Marathon victims are

  1. MIT cop.
  2. Tamerlan Tsarnaev.
  3. Ibraghim Todashev.

The government’s account seems inconsistent to skeptics on each of these.  Aspects of the MIT cop shooting evidence are disputed, and strangely the government shot his partner but didn’t kill him.

The government’s account of Tamerlan Tsarnaev’s death is contradicted by the ER doctor. Was an autopsy done? Released?

Todashev’s death is a matter of enduring mystery with the government now seemingly saying he was forced into a false confession and then shot in the middle  of it when he got angry at it.

The government at the press conference on Thursday April 18, 2013 claimed they had video of the Tsarnaevs dropping the back pack. This is now known to be a deliberate lie.  There are also accounts that the cops knew who they were already and were waiting for them to run.   This is key since it potentially undermines the whole government thread that starts with the capture of Dzhokhar in the boat and Tamerlan’s body delivered to the ER.

We see in some ways a parallel with the killing of Todashev later.  His body was full of bullets and the government did all it could to prevent a local investigation.  They evidently lied to the local prosecutor about the confession being true. They didn’t let that prosecutor interview the FBI agent who did the shooting.  Skeptics find this very suspicious.

At trial the government didn’t start at the end but started with the Boston Marathon Bombing. Perhaps they realized that the later events were suspicious and subject to criticism.  So they relied on the photos of the bombing, the materials found in the possessions of the Tsarnaevs, and most of all an appeal to emotion.

The government suppressed all evidence relating to Tamerlan’s relation to the government.  It did not even present testimony that the news conference claims that they didn’t know who the Tsarnaevs were. Other aspects of their story were also never testified to it appears from the outside.  (We don’t have a transcript and the media is ineffective at the details.)

Snowden makes the government claim to have lost contact with the Tsarnaevs difficult to believe. Skeptics don’t believe it.

Skeptics don’t find any anchor to hold onto to believe the government’s case. They find difficulties at every stage and whatever path one tries to follow through the evidence.

Skeptics say the only things we know for sure are that the government is covering up and that they have been caught in critical lies.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Obama intentionally undermined Iran negotiations starting in September 2013

April 4, 2015

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/04/03/the-us-surrendered-to-iran-on-nuke-deal-says-france/

” In fact, the concessions began almost immediately in September 2013 and never stopped:”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/concessions-fueled-iran-nuclear-talks-1428021667

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/04/03/multiple-us-concessions-drove-iran-nuclear-talks-to-framework-deal-report/

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/193636#.VSCdwfnF-Sp

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who represented France in the nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, revealed on Friday that his nation had rejected an original version of the deal reached the day before for not being “solid enough.”

In an interview with Europe 1 radio cited by Fox News, Fabius said he had tried to hold out for stronger terms, but when the Iranian delegation threatened to leave the talks he was forced to capitulate.

France wants a strong deal “to prevent other countries in the Gulf such as Saudi Arabia from embarking on nuclear proliferation,” Fabius said.

Obama intentionally undermined the nuclear negotiations with Iran.  Why?  Possible reasons.

  1. Obama disliked the French because of the French Algerian War.  He wanted nukes to spread to Moslems to ultimately be used on France, UK, etc.  He dislikes them because of colonialism.
  2. Obama was influenced by a writer linked to Algeria it is said.
  3. Obama has an enduring hatred against Whites.   This is the same as his inciting Blacks to kill Whites and ultimately to shoot cops.
  4. Something in the Koran.
  5. Russia had kompromat on Obama.
  6. Obama had already become part of the cover-up of the IMF loan blackmail by Russia when he hired Larry Summers earlier.  Russia knew that and had it as leverage.

Obama did not go to Paris over Charlie Hebdo in January 2015 like other world leaders because Obama was already involved in spreading nuclear weapons to Moslems to use against Paris France, Israel, London and ultimately US targets including New York City and Washington, D.C.

Congress should impeach Obama for the crime of spreading nuclear weapons with the intent they be used on our NATO allies, Israel, and the United States.

France and Israel should launch a nuclear strike on all of Iran’s nuclear sites.  Rinse and repeat every 2 to 3 years if Iran doesn’t dismantle them.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Iran nuclear deal

April 3, 2015

Iran has made a preliminary deal, not signed, that John Kerry and Obama claim is sufficient to contain Iran’s breakout to a nuclear power.

A favorable review of the deal is here.

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/04/02/the-deal/

Richard N. Haass had positive things to say about it on TV yesterday.  Also mentioned here.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/iran-nuclear-deal-breakthrough-116618.html

“I was expecting either no agreement today or a much thinner one,” said Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “It is more substantive and more comprehensive than many us thought would be the case.”

Haass specifically praised the extent of monitoring of the nuclear supply chain and concessions on the number of centrifuges. But given the amount of work to be done before June 30, “no one should be popping champagne today,” Haass cautioned. “For all we know, there will be backtracking.”

Specifics of the deal are listed at that link and Antiwar, as well as below AP link.

  1. Iran will go from 19,000 centrifuges to 6,000. (The 13,000 go into storage and are monitored.)
  2. Fordow underground site will do non-enrichment activity.
  3. Inspections.
  4. Lift sanctions as compliance achieved.
  5. Iran’s breakout time will go from 3 months to build a nuke to 1 year according to the deal text.

Text of deal.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/233eba228913428d81e7a465a77daca6/text-agreement-iran-its-nuclear-program

This has other provisions that are beneficial to the West.  The deal text does not say dismantle the 13,000 extra centrifuges, but put them into storage.

The critics of the deal will need to offer an alternative deal using the same template and covering the same points.  This presumably would be zero centrifuges in country for Iran.

Israel should ask for guarantees from US and from UN Security Council that would authorize sanctions and use of force if Iran fails on inspections.  The 1 year breakout time is only meaningful if Iran can be stopped within that 1 year from building a nuke.  That would require a quick response from US and/or UN.

Israel should try to get a guarantee of a military strike, but should try very hard to get at least the imposition of a complete embargo with a naval embargo worked out now as part of the deal.  They should get at least in writing that if the inspectors report Iran is in violation that the current sanctions are reimposed in 30 days unless Iran goes into compliance as certified by the inspectors.

Israel needs to get enforcement provisions now as part of the deal. This should be their main focus now, if they can’t prevent this deal going through.  Also if they ask for enforcement provisions and don’t get them, that strengthens their hand to try to block the current deal and continue sanctions or increase them.

If Israel can create an agenda of putting enforcement mechanisms in place now, and Obama or the UN Security Council won’t agree, then Israel has a much stronger position to try to block the deal and keep sanctions going.

In addition, a dialogue on enforcement mechanisms in place will emphasize making the breakout time longer than a year. That would mean fewer centrifuges in country in Iran. So the extra 13,000 would be stored outside the country instead of in it would be one example.

The 6,000 figure might be reduced as well.  Storage of uranium outside the country would be another.  This could delay the deal and give Israel time to prepare its own detailed proposal and get acceptance on it.

Israel should have thought out the provisions of a deal in advance including enforcement mechanisms.  It is hard to fight a deal with no deal proposal of your own.  This is a lesson in the future.  Israel should have been proposing terms of a deal with enforcement provisions automatically triggered by an inspections failure report.

They should try that now.  They might be able to use the time they have to get control of the terms of discussion on a written enforcement deal and as a consequence longer breakout time to change the terms of the deal in their favor.

See also this link discussing Iraq history and the problems there.  Enforcement depending on future action of Security Council will be unreliable to Israel is his thesis.  In particular, he thinks Putin will renege on enforcement of a deal.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/iran-deal-kerry-flawed-negotiations-close-116623.html#.VR5ZuvnF-So

Here it is said that Netanyahu was taken by surprise by the deal and in effect lacks a strategy now on what to do.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.650359

The more Israel can push the problems with future enforcement, the more they can argue for changing the terms now to make the breakout time longer. That means fewer centrifuges and uranium in country in Iran as part of a revised deal. That way, they will have a longer time to get enforcement restarted in the future if the inspectors say Iran has violated the terms.

One can think in terms of an enforcement-reductions see-saw.  The more enforcement is guaranteed in advance, the less reductions are needed now.  But given that this deal has zero enforcement, Israel needs an infinite breakout time, i.e. Iran gives up everything.   If the breakout time is less than 5 years, the need for enforcement guaranteed in advance rises rapidly as the time shortens.

A one-year breakout time requires military enforcement provisions in advance is what Israel should argue.  They should argue that without military enforcement provisions guaranteed in advance, the breakout time has to be 5 years. That means reductions of centrifuges and uranium kept in Iran reduced to a 5 year breakout time.  That also should include machines used to make centrifuges.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


Do a first strike on North Korea to get Iran serious on nukes

April 1, 2015

Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear in his speech to Congress, letting North Korea get nukes was a policy failure. It was also stupid.

Iran and Pakistan are getting ideas from North Korea. Unfortunately, so is North Korea.  It is time to nip this in the bud.

A first strike on North Korea is easily doable. If it generated refugees into China, all the better. Teach them a lesson too, not to foul up nuclear arms control.

As the US makes mistakes it seems to forget it made them and just accept them as if decreed from Heaven.  Well they are not.

Bush Obama were a combined disaster that not just America but the world will have difficulty recovering from.

Russia and China have been bad actors on spreading nuclear technology.  China had a historical policy to spread nuclear weapons to Pakistan and to Moslem states. This is documented in the book “Nuclear Express” by Reed and Stillman.

http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201010/lerner.cfm

Which by the way, cites this blog on Russia and China using plagiarism kompromat to help gain nuclear know-how.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


What did we learn from the feds in the Tsarnaev trial?

March 30, 2015

We seem to have learned very little from the prosecution case in the Boston Marathon Bombing trial of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev.  Some thing we the public outside the courtroom still don’t know.  (Recall we don’t have the trial transcript.)

  1. What color were the back packs used in the attack?
  2. Were they the same as the video of the Tsarnaev backpacks?
  3. Who made the bombs?
  4. Was Tamerlan Tsarnaev a CIA agent?
  5. Did Tamerlan Tsarnaev recruit for the CIA when in Russia?
  6. Did the FBI tell Tamerlan Tsarnaev to buy fireworks?
  7. What was the role of Todashev?
  8. Why was the partner cop of the MIT cop shot?
  9. Who shot the MIT cop?
  10. Why was the MIT cop shot?
  11. Is Tsarnaev protecting others still?
  12. What was the role of the student friends?
  13. How many bullets did Tamerlan Tsarnaev have in the firefight?
  14. Who shot the MIT cop’s partner?
  15. Why were the police so confused as to what happened in the boat “firefight” when Tsarnaev was unarmed?
  16. What did Tsarnaev say in his “confession”?
  17. Who made the bombs if the Tsarnaevs did?
  18. How were the bombs tested?
  19. Who was the bald headed security guy in khaki pants staring at Tsarnaev in his face almost in front of the Forum Restaurant?
  20. Why was he staring at Tsarnaev?
  21. Who was the security type behind him wearing a backpack?
  22. What was in that backpack?
  23. Which backpack was big enough to hold the pressure cooker of the two?
  24. Could the backpack fragments be matched to the backpacks that Tsarnaevs bought?
  25. Were Tsarnaev fingerprints on any remainders of the bomb or backpacks?
  26. Were anyone else’s?
  27. Did the FBI agents at the news conference know the name Tsarnaev at the time of the news conference when they released the photos?
  28. What was the FBI motive?
  29. Did the NSA have recordings of the Tsarnaev phone calls?
  30. Emails?
  31. Letters through mail?
  32. What was on their computers?
  33. What was their relationship to Todashev?
  34. Who did the Waltham killings?
  35. What about the other Chechens in the greater Boston area?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


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