On May 3, 2007 sunset in Lisbon was 8:30 P.M. This was the time that Gerry and Kate McCann met their friends for dinner.
Aerial photo showing how easy to kidnap the child:
The police theory is
- There was an accidental death before 8:30 P.M.
- The parents hid the body before sunset
- No one saw them
- They did it without a car (the rental was 25 days later)
- They had no hiding place.
- They had a fixed time limit to act.
- They had no plan since it was accidental.
- They had no experience in hiding a body in Praia da Luz Portugal so as to be hidden for a month or more.
Compare this to a stranger:
- There was a planned kidnapping after sunset, 8:30 P.M.
- The child was taken after sunset
- Jane Tanner saw the man around 9:15 to 9:30 P.M.
- They did it with a car
- They had a hiding place including their house.
- They had no fixed time to hide the body.
- They had it all planned.
- They may have been experienced at this.
Given the body was never found, and the police claim it was moved at the earliest 25 days after the May 3, 2007 disappearance, its unlikely the McCanns could have hid the body during daylight without a car in the complex or nearby where the police searched in the days following.
The parents can’t speak Portuguese? Another strike against them.
If each point has a factor of 1/2, i.e. its 1/2 as likely in the police as in the alternative, we get 1/2 to the power of 8 or 1/256. If each factor is 1/10, then the police theory has relative likelihood of 10 to the power -8.
If we include the language factor as another one, we get 1/512 with one estimation or 10 to the power -9 with the other. If we split the difference in log terms, we have a relative likelihood of the police theory of less than 10 to the power -4 relative to abduction.
See more at
Police prepared to dig up recently-laid roads in the resort town of Praia da Luz to search for Madeleine’s body.
• A “substantial amount” of Madeleine’s hair was said to have been found in the boot of the McCanns’ hire car.
• Sources claimed that forensic evidence pointed to Madeleine’s body being hidden in the car’s spare wheel well.