Why Are So Many Women Depressed, Pt. I
By Dennis Prager
FrontPageMagazine.com | Tuesday, March 11, 2008 It is widely reported that women suffer depression at twice the rate of men. Apparently, more women are clinically depressed than ever before.
On the assumption that these assessments are true, the question anyone interested in the subject — which means anyone who cares about any woman — is, why?
Women’s median wage is the same as men’s median wage in 1960. Men’s median wage is the same as in 1973.
Graph page 16:
Productivity has doubled. Men’s labor force participation rate was 80 percent for white and black men in 1965. Now its 74 and 67 percent.
Click on view as HTML Table B-39 and B-40
View as HTML:
Before immigration restarted productivity and wages moved up 1 for 1. Now only productivity moves up. If we had had zero immigration since 1965, wages would be double. Women could stay at home with the kids and the family income would be larger than it is now if the man and woman both work.
The rule of 72 is years to double equals 72 over the growth rate. So at 2 percent growth rate, its 36 years. Its 35 years from 1973 to 2008. So at slightly over 2 percent growth, productivity has doubled.
Bar chart of productivity growth by decade:
Productivity change in the nonfarm business sector, 1947-2007: Average annual percent change 1947-73 2.8 1973-79 1.2 1979-90 1.4 1990-1995 1.5 1995-2000 2.6 2000-2007 2.5 Last updated: March 5, 2008
Wages of men and women are little changed from 1990 while productivity has gone up substantially. The total change in productivity without compounding is about 40 percent from 1990 to 2007. But wages are almost the same over that period. See graph page 16:
Women’s percentage in the labor force saturated around 1990, i.e. stopped going up.
Table 1 shows it stopped going up around 1990.
==Female Fertility Falls from 1950 to 2000
As men can’t earn, they don’t have wages in line with productivity gains or don’t have jobs, fertility has fallen. Women have to work instead of have a family. This makes them depressed.
Having children and a family is life’s basic task. When men and women can’t do that or do it as well, then they are depressed.
Since the percentage of women working stopped going up in 1990, women in the work force can’t explain productivity rising since 1990 while median wages. But immigration took off since 1990 from the Bush Senior increase and from chain migration from the 1986 amnesty and from illegal immigration. So the reason that wages are depressed is immigration.
This overall fall of economic health for men and women is likely the main cause of higher depression in women. In addition, fertility is below replacement because of this economic pressure. That is also pushing up depression in women.
==Immigrants and Work Force
Population growth is from immigrants graph from NumbersUSA Roy Beck:
Vdare Displacement Index
Ed Rubenstein at Vdare maintains a regular tracking that the growth in jobs is from Hispanics, and that non-Hispanic job growth has been close to zero since 2001. During that period labor productivity rose around 2.5 percent. Median wages however are relatively flat and trending down in the last couple years.
When we combine all the different data sources on wages, labor force participation rates of men and women, productivity, and immigration the picture is clear. We are seeing immigration keep median wages down for men and women. This keeps women’s median wages from reaching those of men. It keeps the peg of women’s median wages, those of men back at 1973. Since women’s median wages stopping increasing at about 77 percent, women’s median wages are where men’s median wages were in 1960.
This is being caused not by women entering the work force, since that stopped increasing as a percentage very much around 1990. From 1990 on we have had a huge influx of immigrants. This is the only explanation left for median wages not rising since 1990 while productivity has gone up even faster. Women’s lower fertility from 1950 to 2000 reflects the displacement by immigration.
The causal mechanism is that immigration lowers both wages and labor force participation by non-immigrants. This then lowers the job security of non-immigrants and thus lowers their fertility. Thus they are being substituted away.
This is precisely what the Wright Island Model says. Its a mathematical theorem that immigration eventually causes genetic replacement. The job market is the mechanism by which this happens in humans.
In population genetics, the case of one way migration is often treated in what is called the “Island Model”.
Genetics. 1979 January; 91(1): 163–176.
The Island Model with Stochastic Migration
Department of Biophysics and Theoretical Biology, The University of Chicago, 920 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637
The island model with stochastically variable migration rate and immigrant gene frequency is investigated. It is supposed that the migration rate and the immigrant gene frequency are independent of each other in each generation, and each of them is independently and identically distributed in every generation. The treatment is confined to a single diallelic locus without mutation. If the diploid population is infinite, selection is absent and the immigrant gene frequency is fixed, then the gene frequency on the island converges to the immigrant frequency, and the logarithm of the absolute value of its deviation from it is asymptotically normally distributed.
The above implies that if you have two genes in some frequency in the immigrant population, that under one way migration that frequency becomes the frequency on the island.
From PDF, conclusion:
We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.
==Mixing doesn’t matter.
It doesn’t matter whether the genes mix or the people mix in the jobs. In both cases, mixing makes it easier to prove the result of replacement, because mixing makes wages or gene survival rates be the same across groups which makes it easier to prove the theorem of replacement.
The immigration vanishing survival theorem above is more abstract than just genes. It applies to systems in general with the right re-interpretation. The result is that the influx creates a displacement or substitution effect. This applies to having a job, to wages, and to genes.
The same math can be used to prove the second law of thermodynamics, that entropy rises. The substitution effect of an influx is a powerful mathematical theorem. It can be used to understand a wide variety of other theorems or phenomena. The vanishing of good jobs and of genes are both a function of the action of immigration and this theorem.