Palestinian buy out plan updated numbers

July 1, 2009

This post updates the calculations of the plan to buy out Palestinians that I presented in 2006.  This is the only realistic plan for bettering the welfare of both Jews and Palestinians in Greater Israel, a complete buy out covering Greater Israel including the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  The buyout plan I proposed in 2006 is at the following link:

All Palestinians on the West Bank and Gaza would receive an annual payment from Israel with part of the payment going to the host government. The plan is cheapest if the Palestinians go to Egypt which has the lowest per capita income of Arab states Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

An alternative approach would be to give the Palestinians a job to do, like civilize Somalia or Sudan.  In that plan, they would be sent into one of those countries with backing and allowed to modernize it.

Palestinians Dec 2007: 2,345,000

July 2007 estimate 1,481,080

The total we can call 3.8 million.

World Bank estimate of GDP nominal per capita in Egypt 1,697 dollars.

So if we paid 3.8 million times 1700 dollars, we get 6,460 million or 6.5 billion dollars per year.  Half to the government and half to the person.  In addition, they would presumably make a wage equal to that in Egypt, so they would be very well off.

The per capita income in the West Bank is 1,036 dollars.  So they are very well off from this.

With all the Palestinians cleared out of the West Bank and Gaza, Israeli per capita income should rise at least 10 percent.  This more than covers the annual cost.   Israel per capita income 22,563 dollars.

Israel population 7.4 million 2009.

GDP (nominal) 2008 estimate
Total $201.761 billion[3]
Per capita $28,365[3]

Note per capita is from another source.

Thus the buyout cost is small.

“over 1,144,000
over 270,000 in East Jerusalem
and the Golan Heights (2008)
20% of Israeli population[1]

The bigger problem financially would be to buy out the Arab population in Israel itself.  If their per capita income is 15,000 per year, then its 17.16 billion per year to pay for them a replacement amount.  Because of purchasing power and standards of living, it might be less in Egypt.

However, this group is also a highly productive Arab population.  Some Arab country with oil money might be willing to take the whole group or substantial parts of it and guarantee them a replacement income.

The above plan would make Israel livable for the Jewish people there.  It would give them a secure and safe present and future.  There would be some room for internal growth and a little more immigration from Russia as well for example.

A total buyout of both groups would cost about 20 to 25 billion or even 30 billion dollars.  However, Jewish per capita income would rise with an all Jewish presence.  This would also attract some more from Russia and other countries where there is insecurity.  Defense costs would fall.  Overall, with the influx from abroad, the lower defense costs, the rise in per capita income, Israel would cover the cost of the buyout.

The buyout could be guaranteed by the World Bank and IMF and the European Union.  The Arabs in Israel who are the major cost could also get a guarantee and a subsidy of 5000 per year on average because some Arab countries could take them in and use their higher skills to good effect.  In this case, the cost might fall to 15 billion or so per year.

This would solve the Palestinian problem.  This would also include peace with the Arab and Muslim countries.   Compared to the cost of wars in the Middle East, this is cheap.  If the EU put up the money in an investment pool of 300 billion and it earned 5 percent per year that would pay 15 billion.  That is far less than the cost of the Iraq war and aftermath to the US and would let them carry their share of Middle East peace which benefits Europe as well with its large Muslim population.   This could then pave the way for more buyouts of Muslims in Europe and America.

The lives of the Arabs leaving would be better.  The fall in tensions in the Middle East would benefit of every country.  By removing the Arab population from the West Bank, Gaza and Israel completely, future clashes would be avoided.  That would result in a huge savings to the host countries as well.  At the same time, any refugees still in camps could be handled as part of the overall deal.


3 Responses to “Palestinian buy out plan updated numbers”

  1. […] that will be that. Palestinian buy out plan updated numbers July 1, […]

  2. latte island Says:

    Of course this would be a great improvement, but how do you get the Arabs to do something reasonable? The Koran tells them to hate Jews, so if they settle for money, extremists will accuse them of being like Jews, preferring money to jihad. That type of argument is effective in the Arab world.

  3. Old Atlantic Says:

    Search: US payments Egypt. Egypt is getting billions from US but is close to default and has built up a debt to US. They divide the money from US up among their government and coalition employees. The payments are designed to be big enough that the half that goes to the government will go to government employees and coalition partners.

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