Moodys has pushed down credit rating of Ukraine earlier and more than S & P

April 9, 2014

Moody’s rating service has been pushing down the credit rating of Ukraine earlier and lower than has S & P.

Moody’s has Ukraine at Caa3 whereas S & P has it at CCC, which is above the Moody’s rating by one notch.  However, that notch is quite important.  Moody’s is rating Ukraine as default imminent with little prospect for recovery.

In local currency, Moody’s has Ukraine the same Caa3.  However, S & P gives it a B in its local currency.  These are extremely different.  Fitch tends to support S & P.  In almost every case, Moody’s has pushed Ukraine down earlier and more than S & P, especially in the local currency.

Moody’s

http://countryeconomy.com/ratings/ukraine

Click on Moody’s tab

Rating Moody’s Ukraine
Long Term Rating Short Term Rating
Foreign Currency Local Currency Foreign Currency Local Currency
Date Rating (Outlook) Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating
2014-04-04 Caa3 (Negative) 2014-04-04 Caa3
2014-01-31 Caa2 (Negative) 2014-01-31 Caa2
2013-09-20 Caa1 (Under Review) 2013-09-20 Caa1
2012-12-05 B3 2012-12-05 B3
2011-12-15 (Negative) 2009-05-12 B2
2010-10-11 (Stable) 2008-08-08 B1
2009-05-12 B2 (Negative) 2003-11-10 B1
2009-02-24 (Under Review) 2002-01-24 B2
2008-10-20 (Stable) 2001-11-20 Caa1
2008-08-08 B1 (Positive) 2000-01-05 Caa3
2008-03-28 (Under Review) 1999-02-22 Ca
2006-11-10 (Positive)
2005-02-17 (Stable)
2004-09-08 (Positive)
2003-11-15 (Stable)
2003-11-10 B1
2002-01-24 B2
2000-01-05 Caa1
1998-09-09 B3
1998-02-06 B2

 

Ukraine Ratings S & P

http://countryeconomy.com/ratings/ukraine#ratc1

Click on S & P tab

Long Term Rating Short Term Rating
Foreign Currency Local Currency Foreign Currency Local Currency
Date Rating (Outlook) Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating
2014-02-21 CCC 2013-11-01 B- 2014-01-28 C 2010-03-11 B
2014-01-29 CCC+ 2012-12-07 A- 2010-05-17 B
2013-11-01 B- (Negative) 2012-03-15 A+
2012-12-07 B (Negative) 2011-09-13 B+
2012-03-15 (Negative)
2010-07-29 B+ (Stable)

Fitch Rating

 

Long Term Rating Short Term Rating
Foreign Currency Local Currency Foreign Currency Local Currency
Date Rating (Outlook) Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating
2014-02-28 CCC 2014-02-28 B- 2014-02-28 C
2014-02-07 CCC 2014-02-07 B- 2014-02-07 C
2014-01-23 B- (Negative) 2014-01-23 B- 2014-01-23 B
2013-12-30 B- (Negative) 2013-12-30 B- 2013-12-30 B
2013-12-19 B- (Negative) 2013-12-19 B- 2013-12-19 B
2013-11-28 B- (Negative) 2013-11-28 B- 2013-11-28 B
2013-11-08 B- (Negative) 2013-11-08 B- 2013-11-08 B
2013-09-30 B (Negative) 2013-09-30 B 2013-09-30 B
2013-08-30 B (Negative) 2013-08-30 B 2013-08-30 B
2013-07-29 B (Negative) 2013-07-29 B 2013-07-29 B
2013-06-28 B (Negative) 2013-06-28 B 2013-06-28 B
2013-05-28 B (Stable) 2013-05-28 B 2013-05-28 B
2013-03-08 B (Stable) 2013-03-08 B 2013-03-08 B
2012-08-09 B (Stable) 2013-02-19 B 2013-02-19 B
2012-07-18 B (Stable) 2013-02-08 B 2013-02-08 B
2012-04-26 B (Stable) 2012-11-23 B 2012-11-23 B
2011-10-19 B (Stable) 2012-11-16 B 2012-11-16 B
2011-09-02 B 2012-10-08 B 2012-10-08 B
2011-07-21 B (Positive) 2012-09-27 B 2012-09-27 B
2010-07-06 B (Stable) 2012-08-09 B 2012-08-09 B
2010-03-17 B- (Stable) 2012-07-18 B 2012-07-18 B
2009-11-12 B- (Negative) 2012-04-26 B 2012-04-26 B
2009-02-13 B (Negative) 2011-10-19 B 2011-10-19 B
2008-10-17 B+ (Negative) 2011-09-02 B 2011-09-02 B
2008-09-25 BB- (Negative) 2011-07-21 B 2011-07-21 B
2008-05-14 BB- (Stable) 2010-07-06 B 2010-07-06 B
2006-10-25 BB- (Positive) 2010-03-17 B- 2010-03-17 B
2006-01-12 BB- (Stable) 2009-11-12 B- 2009-11-12 B
2005-06-08 BB- (Positive) 2009-02-13 B 2009-02-13 B
2005-01-21 BB- (Stable) 2008-10-17 B+ 2008-10-17 B
2003-06-25 B+ (Stable) 2008-09-25 BB- 2008-09-25 B
2002-03-26 B (Stable) 2008-05-14 BB- 2008-05-14 B
2001-06-13 B- (Stable) 2006-10-25 BB- 2006-10-25 B
2006-01-12 BB- 2006-01-12 B
2005-06-08 BB- 2005-06-08 B
2005-01-21 BB- 2005-01-21 B
2003-06-25 B+ 2003-06-25 B
2002-03-26 B 2002-03-26 B
2001-06-13 B- 2001-06-13 B

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating

 

Moody’s S&P Fitch rating description
Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term
Aaa P-1 AAA A-1+ AAA F1+ Prime
Aa1 AA+ AA+ High grade
Aa2 AA AA
Aa3 AA- AA-
A1 A+ A-1 A+ F1 Upper medium grade
A2 A A
A3 P-2 A- A-2 A- F2
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ Lower medium grade
Baa2 P-3 BBB A-3 BBB F3
Baa3 BBB- BBB-
Ba1 Not prime BB+ B BB+ B Non-investment grade
speculative
Ba2 BB BB
Ba3 BB- BB-
B1 B+ B+ Highly speculative
B2 B B
B3 B- B-
Caa1 CCC+ C CCC C Substantial risks
Caa2 CCC Extremely speculative
Caa3 CCC- Default imminent with little
prospect for recovery
Ca CC
C
C D / DDD / In default
/ DD
/ D
Credit rating agencies[edit]

Russia has kompromat on Darrell Duffie who is head of the MIS Committee of Moody’s.  Duffie also has interacted with persons in Europe close to Russia and more speculatively, Duffie may have helped with the Shiryaev book in 1999 which was meant to put pressure on Stanley Fischer for more IMF loans for Russia. Duffie has acted over 20 years as if he was an agent provocateur for Russia.  He has embedded misconduct on plagiarism that Russia can use or has used already throughout academia, government and industry.  He has pulled others into it and made them vulnerable or make them feeling that way.

Requests have been made to Stanford to investigate this.  Kenneth Singleton, John Shoven, Michael McFaul and the provost of Stanford have all been made aware of Russia’s kompromat on Duffie and Duffie’s position at Moody’s  in multiple emails. No response has been received on the substance.

The above is hypotheses and speculation.  Please restate as questions.  This is draft and preliminary.  Comments and corrections welcome.  All other disclaimers apply.

 

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