Archive for July, 2014

IAFE and conspiracy issues

July 29, 2014

The IAFE can be investigated for evidence of conspiracy or misconduct.  This includes to obtain government benefits, immigration, grants and regulatory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Association_of_Financial_Engineers

The Financial Engineer of the Year award can be analyzed and investigated as a reward for participating in conspiracies against Hakansson, me or with Russia.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

2005 and 2014 AEA AFA ASSA meetings and Stanley Fischer

July 29, 2014

The 2005 and 2014 meetings of the AEA, AFA and other ASSA orgs are important in the case of Stanley Fischer.

 

http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/

Stanley Fischer was named the head of Israel’s central bank on the last day, Sunday, of the 2005 meeting. By then most people had left without hearing of it.

Samuelson canceled his speaking perhaps he could not face me.

Daniel Rubinfeld gave me a look that could kill after I attended his session on Sunday.

Fischer I thought was staring at me during one of his sessions.

John Campbell, Darrell Duffie and George Constantinides seemed almost as if in league in regards to misconduct towards me.

For the 2014 meeting, they gave an award to Stanley Fischer. This was after knowing everything since the 2006 postings here as well as that Russia had posted evidence on its webpages of Duffie plagiarizing me in continuation of the same research as of Hakansson and Merton’s continuous time version.

These two meetings can be considered in reference to what they discussed, did and whether they were in a conspiracy against me, Hakansson or with Russia.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Academic conspiracies what are the benefits?

July 28, 2014

What are the benefits given out in academic conspiracies?

 

  1. Credentials that are not earned, such as a Ph.D. obtained by plagiarism.  This defrauds the granting institution by a student possibly in conspiracy with the faculty.
  2. Immigration benefits arising from use of fraudulent credentials.
  3. Government grants based on fraudulent credentials or fraudulent papers.
  4. Government regulatory benefits.  Bank bailouts. Antitrust benefits.
  5. Wall Street endows buildings, professorships, entire business schools.  These go to the same universities that do the plagiarism and that furnish profs to government agencies.
  6. Some positions in US gov are always or usually held by econ or finance profs. Fed chairman or vice chairman, Undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs sometimes, Deputy Assistant Attorney General for Economic Analysis Group of Antitrust Division, Chief Economist FTC, etc.
  7. The same Wall Street firms that give benefits to universities get regulatory benefits.  These Wall Street firms often employ Ph.D.s, MBA, BAs, from those universities, recruit lavishly at those schools and hire the profs as consultants.  Some profs have made millions of dollars in these business arrangements.  Some have made comments in their Nobel Prize essays that indicate knowledge of the Stanley Fischer plagiarism or even a false statement in the Robert C. Merton case about Hakansson.
  8. Universities withhold information in FBI background checks on profs for US government positions or Ph.D.s.  They withhold information on security clearances.
  9. Academic awards such as the SIEPR 100k award to Stanley Fischer are intended to signal to profs who know this to keep silent.  AEA also gave Fischer an award during his nomination. This too was intended to signal not to volunteer info. This was years after they know of the postings on line that Russia used this information. Those involved in giving the awards are aware of and possibly active participants in the misconduct or covering it up or intimidating the victims into silence.
  10. Intimidating victims is an act in furtherance of these conspiracies.
  11. Intimidating others including potential witnesses in FBI background checks.
  12. Nobel Prize essay(s) indicate fears by winners to speak up about the Stanley Fischer plagiarism in particular.  This includes by Phelps.  The Sameulson forward to his book is a case of bullying and intimidation to keep quiet if he wanted to get the Nobel Prize.
  13. The effectiveness of their bullying is why they were so afraid the blog author would speak up at the January 2005 AEA meetings.   Paul Samuelson canceled his talk supposedly out of illness, but more likely he couldn’t face me.
  14. The January 2005 meeting had the announcement effectively too late on Sunday that Stanley Fischer would be the central bank head for Israel for me to speak up at the meeting.  I in fact heard about it after getting home.
  15. This was during US v Harvard.
  16. Larry Summers’ comments about women and math abilities may have targeted a woman prof at Harvard Law School who had a Ph.D. in econ from MIT and who had joint control of the law and econ grants through NBER From the NSF, ie from US government.  She later left Harvard.
  17. LTCM bailout was arranged by Fed but without US government money. Even so, many knew that LTCM was betting on Russia having leverage over Larry Summers in US government and Stanley Fischer at IMF.  This was not disclosed to the US government.
  18. In the 2008 bailouts, the beneficiary banks received benefits from the Fed which was compromised by that time through its academic hires.
  19. Federal Reserve Board employees are subject to fear by university journals and academic departments not to cite victims, including this blog author and including a paper pending at the present time at a journal edited at Cornell by a professor known to be hostile to the blog author.
  20. When a Ph.D. employee of the government is subjected to fear not to cite a victim by a university or journal, that also means they are subjected to fear not to tell the FBI about this in federal background checks or about Russia or China using such information or other countries such as India and Pakistan.
  21. Pakistan and Russia may have used this to help get away with terrorist acts or groups or individuals linked to them.
  22. Federal employees and grant recipients and immigration benefit recipients could have provided information after the death of Boris Berezovsky or after Putin’s statement about Anatoly Chubais following the Boston Bombing. They were intimidated not to.  That interfered with a federal investigation.  They also knew that Berezovsky linked to Chubais so their knowledge of Berezovsky and Russia being able to use plagiarism kompromat on Stanley Fischer, Larry Summers, etc. was relevant as well as Shleifer’s possible role as a conduit.
  23. Private sector benefits are given or exchanged based on these multiple conspiracies including by employees of investment banks who are associate editors at the journals or belong to the associations or to IAFE which has given awards to those involved.
  24. Certain models are  flawed for capital and risk but were used during the time before the bank bailout. Information on these flaws was likely not disclosed to regulators by the banks or the universities or their employees at government agencies.  This led to under capitalization of the banks and can be considered linked to the need to bail them out.
  25. Government policies like low interest rates benefit the banks but hurt savers. Savers are not aware of this kompromat while the banks are.
  26. Investment banks focus their recruiting on a few top schools that provide the profs for regulation of the banks. This focus of recruiting makes wealthy students want to go to those schools and pay high tuition. This boosts prof salary.  Econ departments benefit from this particularly at schools that don’t have an undergraduate business major. The same econ profs then staff the FTC, Antitrust Division EAG, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, etc.
  27. The same universities withheld info about Russia using this to get atomic secrets.  That also involved China. Some of the know-how transfer e.g. from China to Pakistan continued long afterwards.  The book by Thomas C. Reed documents China’s help to Pakistan.
  28. Pakistan had an expert in Fock Space the same area as in the Corson plagiarism paper at Rockefeller University.  Mirza Abdul Beg.  Pais at same university in one of his books relates how he had been asked to review the Corson plagiarism paper after Russia sent a letter about it.   Bad feeling between Beg and Pais?  Some people still alive can answer questions on this. Beg and Pais are both dead.  I met Beg and looking back believe he had a hostile reaction to me based on his fear if I came as a grad student there at the physics department I might discover his secret. I was working for the US military in my summer jobs and so he may have feared I would pass on suspicions I might develop over the years of being a grad student.
  29. Pakistan also may have used information on these matters as well as India at the World Bank and IMF to get benefits.
  30. Any use by India would likely be learned by Pakistan from their moles in the Indian government.
  31. Pakistan may then have used this information for its own benefit including to get away with supporting terrorism.

 

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

What are Putin’s messages with MH17 and MH370?

July 27, 2014

For this discussion, we take as assumption that Russia was behind MH370 and that we can infer that based on probability arguments. The same is assumed for the Boston bombing, death of Alexander V. Litvinenko, and Boris Berezovsky.

 

Some basic messages Putin sends are:

  1. He is willing to kill people.
  2. He is willing to kill Western people.
  3. He is likely behind terrorist incidents in the past such as Boston Bombing, MH370, Volgograd bombings, Moscow Apartment Bombings, etc.
  4. That he can commit an act of terrorism like MH370 and we still can’t pin it on him or find out how he did it.
  5. In fact, he can commit an act of terrorism like MH370 and our authorities are afraid to say so publicly because it is “speculation”.
  6. Putin understands the psychology of our governments that they can’t say anything based on probability because they have labeled probability itself as conspiracy theory.
  7. Putin understands the gap this create and he uses it to commit terrorist acts without our governments being will to say it.
  8. Even with MH17 they are afraid to use probability to say Putin is guilty.
  9. The labeling of probability as conspiracy theory by Western governments means as long as Putin has a sliver of plausible deniability he can commit terrorist acts that they know privately are done by him but are afraid to say so publicly.
  10. This means the West can’t mobilize itself to impose sanctions as a bloc.
  11. Without the US government being willing to say Putin is guilty even in MH17, it can never mobilize its own public or the EU to impose meaningful sanctions on Russia.
  12. Putin can raise the level of death of our own people and continue to get away with it.  He has shown by his many terrorist acts including several in our countries, Boston Bombing, MH17 and MH370 that he can get away with it.
  13. In 2006, Putin showed he could kill Alexander V. Litvinenko in London and the West would be afraid to say so.
  14. Out unwillingness to state publicly on the record his responsibility for killing people in our countries has given him a license to kill more and at a much higher scale of death.  He moved up from Litvinenko, to Berezovsky to Boston Bombing to MH370 and MH17.  So he is showing a progression in the number of people killed and his willingness to kill larger numbers of people at once in ways more evident such as MH17.
  15. Putin is showing he is the master of life and death even in our own countries and whether of individuals such as Litvinenko and likely Berezovsky as well as groups such as Boston Bombing, MH17 and MH370.
  16. Putin has pwned our security services and governments to use the Urban Dictionary.
  17. Putin’s ability to dominate our security services and pull one after the other killing over it so that it can’t openly say he did it is of particular importance to Putin as a KGB light colonel.

 

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Russia claims sanctions undermine the fight against terrorism

July 26, 2014

Russian foreign ministry says that sanctions “undermine the fight against terrorism” according to Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-sanctions-idUSKBN0FV0CC20140727

Russia has been causing terrorist incidents to make this case? Boston bombing, the Volgograd bombings, MH370 and MH17?

The Russian plan was to have Chechens commit terrorism in Boston in 2013 and then reinforce that with Volgograd bombings before the Sochi Winter Olympics to create the idea in Western minds that we need Russia to help us fight Chechen and Muslim terrorism?

Did Russian private security companies like Mongoose aka Mangust help prime terrorism from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the Boston bombing? Also help cause the MH370 terrorism?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

MH17 MH370 pair probability v single v conditional v unconditional

July 26, 2014

How should we think about the MH17 and MH370 events in probability terms?

One way is we take the MH370 as given. We also take the shoot down in Eastern Ukraine as given. We then ask what is the chance that the plane model will match. We simply count the number of times that model crosses Eastern Ukraine in some reference time, e.g. each day, and divide by the total number crossing. That could be total number of commercial planes or some other set.

We can also require the plane match on airline and model. So we take the Malaysian 777 and the same model and divide by number of commercial crossings, if that is our choice as comparison.

We could at this point, also look across all war zones and ask what is the chance that in any war zone, the model matches to 777. Or that it matches to Malaysian Airlines and the model 777.

We might also think about the issue of probability per unit time and the time unit we should use to aggregate.

We can also do a sort of reverse conditional probability.

We can take as given that it was a Malaysian 777 that went down in Eastern Ukraine. We then ask what is the chance that the plane that disappeared would match on the model and airline? So we take every commercial airplane in the world, say it is 100,000. Then count the number of Malaysian 777’s, say 10. So we have 10/100,000 or 1/10,000.

We could also ask what is the chance that some commercial flight crossing Eastern Ukraine would match to such a disappearing plane, now randomizing over both. So we are asking a pair probability.

For each flight crossing Eastern Ukraine, we then compute the chance it would match another plane disappearing of that airline.

We could also require that the destination airport match. MH17 was headed to Kuala Lumpur the same airport that MH370 flew out of. We can require that match in our probability question.

We could also expand to include all war zones in the world not just Eastern Ukraine. We could also consider over time. Why has this never happened before? Presumably, however we do the probability, the pair probability is low for this type of matching of the model and the airline and airport.

As we think in these terms, it seems the chance that the Russians didn’t plan both planes together before either plane went down is lower.

Some ideas on number of Boeing aircraft from following article.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Commercial_Airplanes

Number United Airlines.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines

The location of Kuala Lumpur seems special. It is a destination of a flight from Europe over Eastern Ukraine and it is ideal for an aircraft to disappear into the oceans. It would seem few airports match such a pairing.

It seems more like this pair of aircraft were chosen by Russia from the beginning before either event happened.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Did Russia fear Pierre Wauthier was helping the French?

July 24, 2014

The following is very speculative and should be restated as questions.

Did Russia fear that Pierre Wauthier might be helping the French watch Josef Ackermann at Zurich Insurance Group in 2012 and 2013? Pierre Wauthier had worked for the French government out of university. The French had possibly terminated the Lyapunov Institute because they learned Albert Shiryaev, Freddy Delbaen, Darrell Duffie were meeting in Zurich and were advancing the cause of Russia. Russia would know if that was the reason.

So when Ackermann joined Zurich the French suspected he was there to follow up on this and get files for Russia. They might have had Wauthier try to watch this. Or Ackermann or Russia may have feared it or come to fear it when there was friction between Wauthier and Ackermann.

Ackermann and thus Russia would have gotten Wauthier’s file showing his government employment. That would alert them to this risk. Ackermann may have asked Wauthier about his service with the French government. This type of direction may have brought a response from Wauthier that Ackermann and the Russians interpreted as a threat to them.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Agnes Sulem Project 97-03 Mathematical Finance Lyapunov Institute INRIA questions

July 23, 2014

Questions for Agnes Sulem who was a co-head of project 97-03 Mathematical Finance of the Lyapunov Institute a joint project of INRIA France and Moscow State University.

https://team.inria.fr/mathrisk/research/

Reports for years 2000 to 2006 are missing.

Starting from 2007 they are present.

http://raweb.inria.fr/rapportsactivite/RA2007/mathfi/uid0.html

Were prior years ones with the collaboration with Albert Shiryaev and Moscow State University and Steklov Institute?

Were these reports given under the Liaupunov Institute?

Project 97-03. Financial Mathematics

Coordinators:

Prof. A.N. Shiryaev
Faculty of Mech. and Math., Moscow State University
Main Building, MSU, Vorobjevy Gory, 119992 Moscow, Russia
Tel: 7 (095) 939-14-03
Fax: 7 (095) 939-14-03
E-mail: shiryaev@mi.ras.ru

Prof. A. Sulem
INRIA, Domaine de Voluceau-Rocquencourt
BP 105, 78153 Le Chesnay Cedex, France
Tel: (33) 1-39-63-55-69
Fax: (33) 1-39-63-57-86
E-mail: Agnes.Sulem@inria.fr
Abstract:

The appearance of increasingly complex financial products requires the use of advanced techniques in the stochastic and numerical analyses that poses challenging problems for mathematicians. In this connection, the efforts of the French-Russian research team are focused on the following subjects: modeling of the price of assets by random processes; the stochastic control; dynamic portfolio optimization on incomplete markets; approximate hedging of derivative products and calibration of financial assets.

http://www.mathnet.ru/php/organisation.phtml?option_lang=eng&orgid=2674

http://liapunov.inria.msu.ru/ru/index.html

http://liapunov.inria.msu.ru/en/index.html

All traces of this project appear to be gone.

“Project 97-03” “Financial Mathematics”

Why?

Because the Russians were using it for spying and kompromat? The French government realized this sometime in the mid 2000s decade? Then shut it down? The Mathrisk project under Agnes Sulem alone then picked up in 2007 with no reference to the prior version of the project?

Albert Shiryaev was in Zurich sometime in 1997 to 1999 in association with Freddy Delbaen of the ETH.

Albert Shiryaev site:ethz.ch

http://www.math.ethz.ch/finance/talksWS1998.html

Friday, February 5, 1999, 15.15 h (ETHZ, Hermann-Weyl-Zimmer, HG G43)
Albert N. Shiryaev (Steklov Mathematical Institute, Moscow)
An extension of the distributional Paul Lévy theorem with applications to the behaviour of financial prices

(Seminar for Financial and Insurance Mathematics, ETHZ)

This page at INRIA was not removed.

http://www-sop.inria.fr/members/Alain.Dervieux/liapunov.html

Why is math finance so carefully removed but this is not? Because math finance is where the spying was?

Compare this

adresse : Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov, Université de Moscou, Bâtiment E, Vorobyevie Gory, 119899 Moscou, Russie
téléphone +7 095 932 89 53, fax +7 095 932 89 52
Directeur russe : Alexandr Borissovitch Ugolnikov, ugo@vertex.inria.msu.ru
Directeur français : Pierre Népomiastchy, Relations Internationales de l’INRIA,
téléphone +33 1 39 63 56 46, fax +33 1 39 63 50 80, Pierre.Nepomiastchy@inria.fr

Liste des projets de l’Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov
(mise à jour juillet 2002)
AS = Académie des Sciences de Russie

Mathématiques financières
SULEM Agnès (INRIA-Rocquencourt) SHIRYAEV Albert (Faculté de Méca & Maths, Université de Moscou)

Or the following for 2001/2002

Institut franco-russe A.M.Liapunov d’informatique et de mathématiques appliquées
Rapports scientifiques des projets pour l’année scolaire 2001/2002

Mathématiques financières

Project Participants

On the Russian Side:
1. A.N. Shiryaev – Project Leader; Professor, Moscow State University
2. O.V. Bogoslavsky – Student, Moscow State University
3. A.V. Bulinski – Professor, Moscow State University
4. A.S. Cherny – Senior Lecturer, Moscow State University
5. N.G. Khimtchenko – Scientific Secretary of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
6. Yu.A. Kuznetsov – Ph.D. student, Moscow State University
7. S.N. Lobanov – Student, Moscow State University
8. M.L. Nechaev – Research Assistant, Steklov Mathematical Institute
9. V.N. Tutubalin – Professor, Moscow State University
10. M.A. Urusov – Research Assistant, Moscow State University

On the French Side:
1. A. Sulem – Project Leader; Research Director, INRIA
2. S. Aspandiarov – Senior Lecturer, University Paris-V
3. V. Bally – Professor, Universities de Maine and INRIA
4. J. Jacod – Professor, University Paris-VI
5. M. Jeanblanc – Professor, University d’Evry-Val d’Essone
6. D. Lamberton – Professor, University de Marne la Vallee
7. B. Lapeyre – CERMICS, ENPC
8. D. Lefevre – Doctorant, INRIA
9. F. Legland – Research Director, INRIA Rennes
10. P. Malliavin – Academy of Sciences,
11. M. Mnif – Doctorant, INRIA and University Paris-VII
12. M. Yor – Professor, University Paris-VI

The main results

1) A.N. Shiryaev and A.S. Cherny investigated the relationship between thefollowing classes of processes that are important in the mathematicalfinance: a martingale with independent increments, a local martingale withindependent increments, a sigma-martingale with independent increments(see the paper by A.N. Shiryaev and A.S. Cherny “Vector stochasticintegrals and the fundamental theorems of asset pricing”).

2) A.N. Shiryaev and J. Kallsen have obtained rather general resultsconcerning the structure of the Esscher transform to be applied to the construction of the martingale measures (see the paper by J. Kallsen and A.N. Shiryaev “The cumulant processes and Esscher’s change of measure”).

3) A.N. Shiryaev and G. Peskir solved the problem of the quickestdetection of the “disorder” for Poisson processes (see the paper by G. Peskir and A.N. Shiryaev “Solving the Poisson disorder problem”).

4) A.N. Shiryaev and A. Sulem investigated the price structure and the optimal strategies in the barrier version of the Russian option(see the paper by L. Shepp, A.N. Shiryaev and A.Sulem “A barrier version of the Russian option”).

5) A.N. Shiryaev, M. Yor and A.S. Cherny investigated the limit behaviourof a “horizontal-vertical” random walk on a plane (see the paper byA.S. Cherny, A.N. Shiryaev and M. Yor “Limit behaviour of the horizontal-vertical random walk and some extensions of the Donsker-Prokhorov invariance principle”). This subject has arisen from the problems in the control theory, where one needs to gain the optimal strategy by changing the portfolio of securities (switching the markets).

6) A.N. Shiryaev and M. Yor have developed a new method for obtaining the stochastic integral representations of maxima and partial maxima of a Brownian motion. This is intended for the technical analysis. Similar investigations have been started for Levy processes.

7) A.A. Gushchin has developed a new method for obtaining the upper and thelower option prices. The method is based on the theory of the “statistical experiments”. This makes it possible to get, in effect, all the known particular cases (see the paper by A.A. Gushchin and E. Mordecki “Boundsfor option prices in the semimartingale market models”).

8) D. Lefevre studied the maximization of the utility function with the incomplete data (see the paper by D. Lefevre “An introduction to utility maximization with partial observation”).

9) V.N. Tutubalin compared the theoretical results of the mathematical finance with the methods that are used in the actual trading (see the paper by V.N. Tutubalin “Comparison of some models and results of the stochastic finance with the real financial data”).

10) M.A. Urusov has obtained the results dealing with the “technical analysis”of the financial index dynamics. In particular, he has found suboptimal stopping times that are the closest (in some metric) to the time when a Brownian motion attains its maximum (see the paper by M.A. Urusov “On theoptimal prediction of the time when a Brownian motion attains its maximum”).

Recent Publications

1) A.S. Cherny, A.N. Shiryaev, M. Yor.Limit behaviour of the “horizontal-vertical” random walk and some extensionsof the Donsker-Prokhorov invariance principle.//To be published in the Theory of Probability and Its Applications, 2002. A short version of the paper was published as a preprint in Laboratoire de Probabilités & Modèles Aléatoires, 676, 2001.

2) A.A. Gushchin, E. Mordecki. Bounds for option prices in the semimartingale market models.//Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute, 237 (2002).

3) J. Kallsen, A.N. Shiryaev. The cumulant processes and Esscher’s change of measure.//To be published in Mathematical Finance, 2002.

4) D. Lefevre. An introduction to utility maximization with partial observation.//Rapport INRIA, 2001.

5) G. Peskir, A.N. Shiryaev. Solving the Poisson disorder problem.//Advances in Finance and Stochastics. Essays in honour of DieterSondermann. Springer, 2002, p. 295-312.

6) L. Shepp, A.N. Shiryaev, A. Sulem. A barrier version of the Russian option.//Advances in Finance and Stochastics. Essays in honour of DieterSondermann. Springer, 2002, p. 271-284.

7) A.N. Shiryaev. Quickest detection problems in the technical analysis of the financial data.//Proceedings of the First International Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society. Springer, 2001.

8) A.N. Shiryaev, A.S. Cherny. Vector stochastic integrals and the fundamental theorems of asset pricing.//Transactions of the French-Russian A.M. Liapunov Institute, 2001, p. 5-37.

9) V.N. Tutubalin. Comparison of some models and results of the stochastic finance with the realfinancial data.//Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute, 237 (2002).

10) M.A. Urusov. On the optimal prediction of the time when a Brownian motion attains itsmaximum.//Russian Mathematical Surveys, 57 (2002), No. 1, p. 165-166.

So what happened to Project 97-03 Mathematical Finance of the French Russian A. M. Liapunov Institute? Why did this disappear? When? Who decided it? For what purpose?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Russia picked MH17 first and MH370 to be same airline?

July 21, 2014

Did Russia plan to bring down MH17 over Donetsk before MH370 disappeared? Russia looked at scheduled airlines over Donetsk before MH370 ever disappeared? Then they arranged MH370 to disappear? Then they planned the downing of MH17?

Viktor Vekselberg’s Renova has been assigned airports by Russia to manage. Mongoose operates in Central Asian countries. Could they have been involved in planning MH370? Was the planning done in Siberia to keep it secret?

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Pierre Wauthier Josef Ackermann Decision Tree Suicide or Homicide

July 20, 2014

We can think of a decision tree to explore whether Pierre Wauthier committed suicide or was subject to a homicide.

If it was suicide, we then ask why and what caused it. We leave that for later.

If it was homicide, we ask who and how.

If it was a home invasion from the Swiss version of the hood, then how could they know to rig up the suicide note involving Ackermann, etc. So that seems out. If it was homicide, it was done by sophisticated agents who knew of the situation at Zurich Insurance Group.

It was not done by Ackermann or someone like that. It would have to be done by professionals.

Switzerland has so few homicides, they can’t really support a contract killing infrastructure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Switzerland

Switzerland has fewer than 100 homicides per year and many of those are immigrant related.

Gun related homicides are 3.8 per year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

This is not enough to support a contract killing industry. Nor to have sophisticated parties able to do a faked suicide that can pass a medical examiner.

Josef Ackermann was a colonel in the Swiss army.

http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2002-05-19/resume-josef-ackermann

The role of Swiss army colonels in Swiss business especially finance is legendary. However, it is not a group of Moscow oligarchs engaged in killing rivals.

Snowden’s revelations came in June 2013. Pierre Wauthier was killed August 26, 2013. So arranging a contract killing by someone not part of that industry would be difficult without it being picked up on phone or email detection in Europe. A business man not part of such a network already would not even try given the Moscow circus of Snowden in July 2013. That was a reminder of how difficult it is to evade detection by the authorities.

Moscow is a different story.

Hit Men Make a Killing in Hard Times
By Igor SemenenkoJun. 25 1999 00:00

Russia’s economic woes have put the cut-throat back into competition, with the first five months of 1999 seeing the incidence of contract killings double, Interior Ministry officials said Thursday.

Between January and May this year, 567 businessmen were slain on the orders of their competitors, compared to 232 such killings over the same period last year and 599 contract killings for the whole of 1998, according to police figures.

The figures also show contract “hits” are most common in the oil and gas, metals and banking sectors, said Akhmed Khairov, deputy head of the Interior Ministry’s major crimes section.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/hit-men-make-a-killing-in-hard-times/275693.html

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/hit-men-hired-through-ads/285985.html

Igor the Assassin is an SVR and former KGB officer who allegedly killed Alexander Litvinenko and escaped back to Russia.[1][2] He was among the members of a group consisted of the former KGB agents called ‘Dignity and Honor’.[3] According to one version of the Alexander Litvinenko poisoning, the official suspect of the murder, Andrei Lugovoi, only distracted the attention of Litvinenko, while “Igor the Assassin” placed the radioactive polonium into the cup of tea served for Litvinenko. “Igor the Assassin” was later seen on his way back to Russia in an airport in London.

His name and true identity remain unknown. He was said to be a former Spetznaz officer born in 1960 who is a Judo master and walks with a slight limp. He speaks perfect English and Portuguese.[4] Steven Wright of the Daily Mail reported that he was 46 years old in 2006.[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_the_Assassin

Alexander Zyurikov vice Chairman of Renova Group and head of Mongoose or Mangust Private Security could hire a person like Igor the Assassin. They need someone who speaks German well and preferably French and English as well.

Alexander S. Zyurikov
Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board, Director for Security Born in 1951.

Graduated from Omsk Higher School under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs,
Academy of Management under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs. Worked in detective force of law enforcement agencies in the Novosibirsk region, Uzbekistan, USSR/ Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Headed a branch directorate of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Since 1997 €“ General Director of OOO Mongoose-Service (private security firm).

Mongoose is more often known as Mangust.

http://www.mangust-ufa.ru/

MANGUST, SECURITY
Phone:
320185 (+73-320185)
City/Area:
Atyrau
Country:
Kazakhstan

http://kaz.soopage.com/company/MANGUST_SECURITY_4sX.html

Mangust LTD, OOO

Enlarge
Address
Ukraine, Kharkov region, Kharkov, 61058, st. Ivanovskaya, 3
Director
Kovalenko Tatyana Anatolevna
Internet
Site

http://3384.ua.all.biz/en/

MANGUST SECURITY LTD. Post index: 100128
Country: Uzbekistan
City: Tashkent
District: Shayhontohur
street !, 3а
City Code: 371
Phone: (+99895) 1445253; (+99890) 3160203

http://www.goldenpages.uz/en/company/?Id=67362&Map

So if there was a contract killing of Pierre Wauthier in Zug, Switzerland, the likely ones to do it would be contract men out of Russia. These would still require an intermediary, someone experienced. Someone like Alexander Zyurikov.

Entry into and departures from Switzerland around the time of August 26, 2013 can be done from computer records. The departures going out can use external records available to the US and UK even if Swiss entries are not.

So if it was not suicide, then it was likely a contract killing by sophisticated parties aware of the issues with Josef Ackermann. This means likely from Russia, whoever was behind it.

A contract killing out of Russia into Switzerland would be known to the FSB. So it would only be allowed if it helped Russia. That could include helping Russia’s plan in 2013 for invading Ukraine or to protect Putin’s assets held in other names in Switzerland such as Renova Group.

So if Wauthier was killed, we have eliminated a break in because of the suicide note about Ackermann requiring sophistication. We have eliminated a business person trying to do a casual hit men hiring given Snowden news everywhere. So we are down to an intermediary doing a contract killing out of Russia. That would be something like Renova Group, Mongoose Private Security and Alexander Zyurikov. This is not to say they did it, just someone like them if it was not suicide.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

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