July2014X We always miss what Russia is doing next. What are they distracting from now?

July 19, 2014

Right now, somewhere in the world, Russia is working on July2014X, some act we are overlooking while MH17 and Gaza receive our attention.  How can we figure it out?

We can look at 2012 to 2014 in incidents involving Russia and ask how we could have stopped the next one? This is complicated by the fact that we can’t be sure which incidents they were really behind. Even now with Malaysian Flight MH17 some people think it was an accidental shooting. But let’s take some incidents and pretend Russia was behind all of them as a coordinated sequence. Then let’s ask how we could have prevented the next link in the chain.  We won’t provide the answers in this post, but leave that as homework.

Whether right or not, we take the following chain of incidents as caused by Russia.

  1. Snowden starts downloading files in 2012.
  2. Josef Ackermann joins Zurich Insurance Group, ZIG, and we will pretend gets files on this blogger and others linked to him from the Rohrbasser team.  These are employee records, letters between lawyers, etc.
  3. January 2013 Aaron Swartz is found dead.
  4. Anonymous attacks MIT computer network, possibly to cover email monitoring software being added or removed.
  5. Stanley Fischer resigns unexpectedly. January 2013.
  6. Boris Berezvosky is found dead in March 2013.
  7. Boston Bombing April 15, 2013 by Chechens in Boston.
  8. May 2013. Russia releases video of CIA agent in wig and names CIA station chief.
  9. May 20 2013 Snowden leaves Hawaii / arrives in Hong Kong.
  10. Pierre Wauthier suicide.  (We include this suicide because of the subsequent link of Ackermann joining Renova Group)
  11. Homburger law firm report/coverup in Wauthier suicide.  This law firm is linked to Marc Rich and thus Renova Group through Renova Marc Rich RUSAL aluminum transactions.
  12. Stanley Fischer nomination to Federal Reserve vice Chairman.
  13. Volgograd suicide bombings.
  14. Ukraine Maidan coup.
  15. Crimea takeover by Russia.
  16. Stanford SIEPR Day March 2013 possibly some aborted fake suicide of Darrell Duffie or someone else.
  17. MH370 disappearance.
  18. Revolts Eastern Ukraine.
  19. MH17 shoot down July 2014.
  20. July2014X

There are finance related suicides that may be faked and should be added to the list.  However, I’m not prepared to even offer a hypothesis yet in those cases, except the Wauthier case, which has been discussed, rightly or wrongly, in prior posts.  [Note the Wauthier case is interesting because the “suicide”note implicates Ackermann who reigned and later joined Renova and the law firm doing the report Homburger is also linked to Renova through Marc Rich Foundation at a minimum. Renova is also different in having a private security firm Mongoose, Mangust that apparently has offices in Central Asia as well. Renova is also linked to Luhansk Republic. Veksleberg may have had a personal link to Berezovsky in Moscow in the 1980s in work on (operations research?) software by Vekselberg. Also I actually knew Wauthier if only slightly.]

None of the above incidents had a threat letter.  The cops always ask if someone made a threat.  In none of the above cases did that happen, with the possible exception of vague comments by Putin or some other actor.  If the authorities are using a threat as a filter, then they couldn’t stop any of these events.  [Not surprisingly, that is their official position as well. Maybe that is why they always say no threat, no response.]

So right now, Russia is doing July2014X somewhere in the world.  What might that be?

  1. Russia is removing listening devices from a professor’s office, government office, bank office, politician, IMF type org, private home, etc.
  2. Russia is adding listening devices to the same place.
  3. Same for software to monitor networks, cell phones, email, computers, etc.
  4. Someone like Snowden is getting on an airplane and security personnel are not giving them scrutiny.
  5. A terrorist cell like Tsarnaev Brothers and possibly the others are preparing something.
  6. Russian private security is interacting with a Muslim Front Group to develop a Tsarnaev type terrorist cell.
  7. Russia possibly with private security is trying to set up the next Crimea style revolt.  This could be in another former Soviet republic.
  8. Another banker, professor, government employee, etc. is going to fake suicide.
  9. Russia is working on getting some private database like JSTOR if it doesn’t have it yet.
  10. Some investigation that is open is being bribed or coerced to ignore or suppress evidence.  Like the Homburger law firm in fall 2013 on Wauthier.  This law firm is linked to Marc Rich who was very close with Russia’s corrupt classes from the 1980s.
  11. Some investigation that should be reopened is not.

How can we tell?

  1. Russia may give some indication they are aware they made a mistake or left a loose end somewhere.
  2. Someone may give evidence of panic who is linked to Russia somehow.
  3. Some sort of Chechen link to a current incident may be in the files of the FBI and MI5 or even public.
  4. Some sort of link through a Russian oligarch fund like Renova or a company like RUSAL or  Rosneft.
  5. Some act linked to some pot of money that is covertly owned by Putin.
  6. A professor linked to all of this showing signs of weakness, panic, or fear.
  7. Another government or private sector figure showing that.
  8. Academic, business and government conferences and meetings involving these people that show links or suspicious behavior or lapses.
  9. Some law case about to go to trial where someone outside the case might come forward with some linkage to Russia or their actions.
  10. A banker reporting stress or in some difficulty. There have been so many finance suicides this deserves special attention.
  11. We can go back to the past list of events and ask if Russia left a loose end.  Did they leave a listening device they should have removed?  Could it produce evidence against a professor, banker, oligarch, government employee, journalist, etc?
  12. Some act of kompromat may be being prepared or exploited.  Illicit photographs, stupid emails, plagiarism, fake transcripts, and that is just professors.  Appointments of known spies or their confirmation anyhow after a background check has exposed them are popular with the Senate Banking Committee but others may also be playing this game.
  13. Awards to known corrupt figures or being honored at conferences in the US, Europe or Russia.
  14. CEO appointments and firings.  Others in corporations.
  15. Humiliations.

Each of these may be an indicator of something coming next or of a crisis point.

July2014X may involve loss of life as an intended part of it, or that may evolve as it is bungled or those involved panic.  It may involve listening devices or software being added or removed. It may be some act of corruption by elected or appointed politicians.  A court proceeding may be interfered with.  A coup may be prepared.  A terrorist act may be coming.  The NSA, FBI, MI5 and other agencies need to try to stop it.  We can be pretty confident Russia is not sitting still.

We may not know what July2014X is until later or ever. A Snowden downloading may be going on and we won’t know because this is a stealth Snowden not an agitprop one.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.


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