We can think of a decision tree to explore whether Pierre Wauthier committed suicide or was subject to a homicide.
If it was suicide, we then ask why and what caused it. We leave that for later.
If it was homicide, we ask who and how.
If it was a home invasion from the Swiss version of the hood, then how could they know to rig up the suicide note involving Ackermann, etc. So that seems out. If it was homicide, it was done by sophisticated agents who knew of the situation at Zurich Insurance Group.
It was not done by Ackermann or someone like that. It would have to be done by professionals.
Switzerland has so few homicides, they can’t really support a contract killing infrastructure.
Switzerland has fewer than 100 homicides per year and many of those are immigrant related.
Gun related homicides are 3.8 per year.
This is not enough to support a contract killing industry. Nor to have sophisticated parties able to do a faked suicide that can pass a medical examiner.
Josef Ackermann was a colonel in the Swiss army.
The role of Swiss army colonels in Swiss business especially finance is legendary. However, it is not a group of Moscow oligarchs engaged in killing rivals.
Snowden’s revelations came in June 2013. Pierre Wauthier was killed August 26, 2013. So arranging a contract killing by someone not part of that industry would be difficult without it being picked up on phone or email detection in Europe. A business man not part of such a network already would not even try given the Moscow circus of Snowden in July 2013. That was a reminder of how difficult it is to evade detection by the authorities.
Moscow is a different story.
Hit Men Make a Killing in Hard Times
By Igor SemenenkoJun. 25 1999 00:00
Russia’s economic woes have put the cut-throat back into competition, with the first five months of 1999 seeing the incidence of contract killings double, Interior Ministry officials said Thursday.
Between January and May this year, 567 businessmen were slain on the orders of their competitors, compared to 232 such killings over the same period last year and 599 contract killings for the whole of 1998, according to police figures.
The figures also show contract “hits” are most common in the oil and gas, metals and banking sectors, said Akhmed Khairov, deputy head of the Interior Ministry’s major crimes section.
Igor the Assassin is an SVR and former KGB officer who allegedly killed Alexander Litvinenko and escaped back to Russia. He was among the members of a group consisted of the former KGB agents called ‘Dignity and Honor’. According to one version of the Alexander Litvinenko poisoning, the official suspect of the murder, Andrei Lugovoi, only distracted the attention of Litvinenko, while “Igor the Assassin” placed the radioactive polonium into the cup of tea served for Litvinenko. “Igor the Assassin” was later seen on his way back to Russia in an airport in London.
His name and true identity remain unknown. He was said to be a former Spetznaz officer born in 1960 who is a Judo master and walks with a slight limp. He speaks perfect English and Portuguese. Steven Wright of the Daily Mail reported that he was 46 years old in 2006.
Alexander Zyurikov vice Chairman of Renova Group and head of Mongoose or Mangust Private Security could hire a person like Igor the Assassin. They need someone who speaks German well and preferably French and English as well.
Alexander S. Zyurikov
Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board, Director for Security Born in 1951.
Graduated from Omsk Higher School under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs,
Academy of Management under the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs. Worked in detective force of law enforcement agencies in the Novosibirsk region, Uzbekistan, USSR/ Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Headed a branch directorate of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Since 1997 General Director of OOO Mongoose-Service (private security firm).
Mongoose is more often known as Mangust.
Mangust LTD, OOO
Ukraine, Kharkov region, Kharkov, 61058, st. Ivanovskaya, 3
Kovalenko Tatyana Anatolevna
MANGUST SECURITY LTD. Post index: 100128
street !, 3а
City Code: 371
Phone: (+99895) 1445253; (+99890) 3160203
So if there was a contract killing of Pierre Wauthier in Zug, Switzerland, the likely ones to do it would be contract men out of Russia. These would still require an intermediary, someone experienced. Someone like Alexander Zyurikov.
Entry into and departures from Switzerland around the time of August 26, 2013 can be done from computer records. The departures going out can use external records available to the US and UK even if Swiss entries are not.
So if it was not suicide, then it was likely a contract killing by sophisticated parties aware of the issues with Josef Ackermann. This means likely from Russia, whoever was behind it.
A contract killing out of Russia into Switzerland would be known to the FSB. So it would only be allowed if it helped Russia. That could include helping Russia’s plan in 2013 for invading Ukraine or to protect Putin’s assets held in other names in Switzerland such as Renova Group.
So if Wauthier was killed, we have eliminated a break in because of the suicide note about Ackermann requiring sophistication. We have eliminated a business person trying to do a casual hit men hiring given Snowden news everywhere. So we are down to an intermediary doing a contract killing out of Russia. That would be something like Renova Group, Mongoose Private Security and Alexander Zyurikov. This is not to say they did it, just someone like them if it was not suicide.
This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.