Russia’s intelligence services, FSB, SVR, GRU, etc. work to produce and use kompromat and bribery. Bribery comes through many means including Russian oligarchs like Vekselberg hiring former high level people like Josef Ackermann and others. The Russian intel services have a vested interest to attribute anything that benefits Russia in terms of our leadership’s forbearance as due to their work and efforts over decades. Since Putin is from the KGB, he will have that mindset as well.
In the 1990s, when Russia got IMF loans from Stanley Fischer and Larry Summers they attributed the loans to the kompromat they had on Fischer and to Paul Samuelson, uncle of Summers. Because of that they felt free to ignore the conditions of the IMF loans. They in fact, gave them out in loans for shares. This is the origin of much oligarch wealth. Until the West prosecutes this and seeks the wealth as unjust enrichment, wealth in the West in oligarch names, Russia will consider anything they get from Western governments as due to their ongoing kompromat and bribery schemes.
The FBI, MI5, etc. are preventing the West from making a deal with Russia that Russia will keep by not investigating and building cases and bringing them. Until that happens, the West can’t make a deal with Russia that Russia feels it is obligated to honor the terms of. Thus the FBI and MI5 are not helping the West by holding the back, but making it impossible for the West to conduct meaningful negotiations with Russia.
The universities, investment banks, Moody’s, etc. that are involved are financially liable for this. That includes Stanford, Harvard, MIT, University of Chicago, Princeton, Yale, Cornell, etc. These universities and partners know that they are undermining the ability of the West to negotiate a deal with Russia that Russia will keep.
Stanford professor McFaul was treated with contempt by Russia as US ambassador to Russia because they were simultaneously using kompromat on Darrell Duffie of Moody’s and also Stanford was helping cover up the kompromat Russia used on Stanley Fischer. Our very ambassador to Russia is a professor at Stanford, one of the institutions that Russia has compromised and that is spending its money to bribe and intimidate witnesses to keep quiet. That includes the 100,000 SIEPR gave Stanley Fischer and a variety of benefits.
Russia feels it can ignore anything Obama says. Obama is from University of Chicago. U of Chicago is involved back to the atomic bomb project. Stanley Fischer got the start of his immigration applications at his job at University of Chicago when they knew he had plagiarized Nils Hakansson. They became co-conspirators in that in his publications based on his thesis while at University of Chicago. They tried to make his cite Hakansson and buffer the pain, but from a legal standpoint, they didn’t go far enough and were simply a co-conspirator. That then included intimidation of witnesses in FBI background checks for decades on those who were involved. That went back in time in both physics and those involved in Cowles Foundation at U of Chicago including those getting jobs at RAND is likely. It also included the Edward Corson background check where the universities concealed information. They were all co-conspirators on that was well as related cases involving the Max Born spy ring.
The universities need to be charged as legal entities in order to show the Russian intel services that their kompromat has been exposed. Until that happens, the Russian intel services consider the FBI and MI5 to be neutralized by the compromised political leaders and institutions. This includes the law schools through the law and economics links. Judge Richard Posner and his son may know some of this along with John Yoo and others so that Russia considers the high end of the legal profession including DOJ and federal judges to be compromised. As long as they think that, and attribute it to their own efforts and long term conspiracies, they won’t feel obligated to follow any deal they make with Obama or the West. In interpreting the complicity of DOJ and federal judges, Russia will assume the worst, since the intel agencies prepare the estimations and they will play up their own contribution.
So far, they have not been proven wrong by doing so. So they are emboldened to claim credit for compromising not just the economics profession and physics but through the law schools and law and economics nexus the legal profession as well. That especially includes the leadership of DOJ in recent administrations that they feel is linked. This goes back to Jamie Gorelick, the Wall Memo and Harvard in the Clinton administration if not earlier. Gorelick then became an overseer at Harvard while Summers was president. This and many other links Russia’s intel agencies interpret as corrupt and as showing their good work. That is how they write it up and they have not been proven wrong.
The Russian intel agencies then interpret the FBI and MI5 keeping silent as because their political bosses have corrupted them. Thus until some of these people and institutions are charged, Russia’s intel agencies will write up reports saying their kompromat efforts at the universities have neutralized FBI and MI5 through DOJ. They will then prepare estimates to Putin telling him he can act anyway he wants in Ukraine or the rest of the former Soviet republics and get away with it. They will tell Putin he can ignore any terms just like Russia ignored terms of IMF loans in the 1990s when it used the same kompromat then. That kompromat is still being covered up and the Russian itnel agencies interpret the FBI and MI5 as neutralized to act on it.
Russian intel agencies interpret US v Harvard, Shleifer and Hay as showing that DOJ leadership is corrupt and that it hinders and restrains the FBI and career prosecutors from exposing the universities and the profs and high level government officials including presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama from being held accountable. Until that starts to happen, the US can’t negotiate with Russia in a meaningful way, because Russia does not view itself as bound by any terms it agrees to. It views its kompromat and bribery efforts as being the consideration in the deal for what they get and so they don’t have to perform on the other terms of the deal.
This is why Russia feels comfortable not just in its Ukraine activities but in sponsoring terrorism and killings of Westerners or in Western countries. At this point, this may include one or more of the apparent suicides of Aaron Swartz, Berezovsky, Wauthier, the Boston bombing and the downing of MH17 and MH370. It certainly includes the killing of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. That may seem old history now, but at that time, Russia had the same kompromat action going already for a long time. The Shleifer case settled in 2005. Putin referenced back to that in his Chubais comment after the 2013 Boston Bombing. Putin’s rival Berezovsky used the kompromat on Stanley Fischer in the 1990s. Putin made a sarcastic jab at Stanley Fischer in 2001 about finding him a job in Moscow while he was still at the IMF and visiting Russia. That was published in the Russian newspapers. Russia and Putin remember that and note the inaction of the FBI on Stanley Fischer up through his confirmation.
The failure of the FBI to act, the Russian intel agencies attribute in their written reports to the corruption and interference of the political leaders. Thus they see the FBI as neutralized by Obama and Holder and a politicized DOJ going back to at least Clinton. They tell Putin in writing that this is the case. They tell Putin writing it means he can do what he wants and violate agreements like the INF treaty. Nothing proves them wrong.
It is possible that Israel formed the same conclusion and made a deal in 2013 with Russia to kill Berezovsky to get him out of the way so that Stanley Fischer could get a high level job at the Federal Reserve. This was meant to seal the deal for Gaza and Ukraine perhaps. Presumably the Russian intel agencies in writing say this shows the complicity of Eric Holder and Obama in this and thus the go ahead for Russia to invade Ukraine if it wants or destabilize its economy. Until the FBI and MI5 go public, Russia gets its way. Or until some other country speaks up.
As long as the Russian intel agencies are telling Putin writing that FBI and MI5 are neutralized, they are telling Putin in writing that no other NATO country can do anything to stop him either. So Putin has a go ahead in writing from the Russian intel agencies to interfere with Ukraine’s economy and even invade. Nothing proves them wrong.
So Putin can even kill more of our people as he did with MH17 and possibly MH370, Boston Bombing, Berezovsky killing, etc. Certainly he got away with Alexander Litvinenko being killed. Even today, there is hesitation to pin this clearly on Russia and given their system, on Putin himself. Russian oligarchs prance around in England and own sports teams. The Abramovich Berezovsky court case is seen as corruption, since their joint wealth came from the loans for shares that was a reward for the IMF loans attributed to kompromat on Stanley Fischer by Berezovsky and the Russian intel agencies in the 1990s.
The Russian intel agencies also attribute their actions in Iran and the West tolerating them as coming from the same basis of kompromat and bribery. They view themselves as able to spread nuclear tech and know-how to Iran while the US is ineffective to stop it. North Korea is another sore spot the US has let go. Pakistan may have piggy backed on this to get its sanctions lifted and India may have to get its deal to buy nuclear ores despite its past acts as a nuclear violator.
Until the FBI and MI5 get someone charged for this, these countries in the nuclear club including China which have studies these matters will regard the US and UK political leaders as corrupt and neturalized. The money making activities of Clinton and Blair since leaving office and their willingness to take money from almost anyone or any country have contributed to that. George HW Bush contributed that by taking a 100,000 dollar speaking fee in the 1990s to go to Moscow from an American investment bank (possibly Goldman Sachs).
By holding back, FBI and MI5 are not giving the West’s leaders the ability to negotiate, but instead are preventing the West ever getting out of the hole of being seen as unable to hold Russia or others such as China, India and Pakistan to terms. Their holding back is not helping the West deal with Russia or other bad actors, but preventing the West from doing so.
The public doesn’t know this, so the public can’t fix it by electing new leaders not involved. It has gone on since the Clinton administration. The electoral system can’t fix it. Only the FBI and MI5 can fix it by bringing charges and exposing it. Until that happens, nothing changes and Russia and other nuclear club bad actors see themselves as able to ignore the US. (Nuclear club members have long term insights into academic kompromat. China was part of it in the 1940s. Pakistan had Mizra Abdul Beg at Rockefeller University who likely knew of some of it. India has known since the 1930s before it was independent. North Korea may be trying to pick up on it. Others as well. Iran has picked up on the Duffie book posted by Russia and reposted it on their webpages.
They presumably read it from the other blog, copied the document and posted it at their university. They are laughing at the FBI and MI5 for this to be posted on the Internet and nothing done about it for years. Over time this turns into contempt and disdain for the FBI and MI5, DOJ and the entire machinery of the US and UK governments. That then carries over to the rest of the West. This information has been posted since 2006.
No wonder Russia feels safe to kill people in Western lands or Dutch on MH17. The FBI and MI5 have known this for years. The case US v Harvard, Shleifer and Hay should have been a criminal investigation that exposed it. Putin’s comments about Chubais after the Boston bombing were meant to mock the FBI and USAO Mass that handled that case. They were meant to mock DOJ and by implication to mock MI5. David Cameron’s trip to the FBI HQ and Boston after the bombing may show some implicit realization of that but also reinforces that view by Russia. The Russian oligarchs in the UK does as well. Killing Alexander Litvinenko with state sponsored technical means also does.
Only the FBI and MI5 can stop this. They have an obligation to. The public can’t do it. Elections can’t do it. The people don’t know enough to fix it. So the cops have to. Holding back doesn’t give the West a chance to negotiate it prevents it. The Russian intel agencies have told Putin that in writing. That has gone on since Clinton and Blair. Until someone is charged in all this, the West lacks credibility in any deal it negotiates with Russia same as with the IMF loans.
This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.