Russia seems paralyzed so it is wise to think it is doing something in secret

August 2, 2014

Russia seems to have entered a period of paralysis after the downing of MH17.  They have done nothing to advance their cause in a major way that is evident from public information.  Perhaps if they caused MH17 they thought it would produce some benefit.  Perhaps to prepare their own people for war. Perhaps to frighten the West from imposing sanctions.  Perhaps it was aligned with Israel’s actions against Gaza.

If Putin is working on something in secret, what is it?

  1. He is working on another airplane spectacular.  In a way, Snowden in Moscow airport had an air travel motif.
  2. He is working on some other terrorist event somewhere.
  3. He is gaining some ally in secret.  Possibly Israel is an ally to Russia.  Maybe Russia is working on another country helping it.
  4. He is working on some harm to the United States.
  5. He has another covert Snowden type who is up to something.
  6. He is putting some pressure on Obama or Merkel or some other leader.
  7. He is waiting for Ukraine to run out of money to pay its energy bill to Russia.  Then he will demand concessions.
  8. He is waiting for Ukraine to overreach in some way and then strike back.
  9. He is working on some other false flag to pin on Ukraine or the United States or both.
  10. He is putting pressure on some individuals below a state level who can then change policy in the West.
  11. The same but to organizations below a state level. Organizations with interests in Russia or even in China.
  12. He is working to get China to do something.
  13. He is finding a country very dissatisfied with how things are for it that is willing to engage in some risky act, e.g. sponsor terrorism or a military adventure.
  14. He is working on developing an alternative world financing and economic policy network with the BRICs and others. He hopes to use that to stop sanctions.
  15. He is going to transfer some technology like nuclear or missile or the combination to some hostile state to the US.  He could help Pakistan put nuclear warheads on missiles on subs.  Then Pakistan could sell them.  Russia and Pakistan could share the money.

This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

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