Petro Poroshenko, president of Ukraine, has built up credibility by fighting Russia. He is putting pressure on Donetsk and has created a refugee crisis according to Russian media.
Poroshenko has an independent enough record. He has fought the Russians. He is credible as a leader of Ukraine.
Russia has its refugee crisis. It can intervene in Ukraine.
Once Russia intervenes and there are some clashes with Ukraine’s military, Poroshenko can agree to surrender to Russia to avoid a costly war.
Ukraine will remain a republic but will join a Union of Former Soviet Republics UFSR. Poroshenko can then help convince other presidents to join.
Ukraine’s military is integrated with Russia’s and its economy under the UFSR. Russian troops are on the border of Poland once again.
Soon the whole USSR is back together against as the UFSR.
This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.