Poroshenko is about to become the Hero of Donetsk, 2014. He is going to liberate the town of Donetsk and will become a conqueror and hero like Napoleon Bonaparte the Hero of Toulon, 1793, or the Duc d’Enghien the Hero of Rocroi, 1643. What will Poroshenko do with his new found credibility as a Hero of History? He will make a deal with Putin.
Whether the deal is prearranged or made under the stress of invasion or to avoid an invasion, Poroshenko now has the credibility to make a deal with Putin to avert a humanitarian crisis for both Russia and Ukraine.
By some accounts, Russia has over 700,000 refugees from Ukraine. Putin didn’t do all this to get refugees and sanctions. So the stage is set for some sort of deal to resolve this. From Putin’s point of view the deal involves the following.
- Russia keeps Crimea.
- Some formula is found for Luhansk and Donetsk such as a boundary change, independence, autonomy, joining Russia, etc. Russia is actually better off without them because of the pension costs.
- A military union with Ukraine. For Putin this should include Russian forces on the border of Poland.
- An economic union with Ukraine. This covers energy assistance to Ukraine but also Russian access to Odessa, markets, etc. It also involves Ukraine getting sanctions on Russia lifted.
What does Poroshenko want?
- Poroshenko wants to keep his status as a hero. This might involve a short fight with Russia to show he only made a deal when he faced defeat in the face.
- Poroshenko wants to get Ukraine heating energy for winter.
- Ukraine has other financial difficulties it needs help on. This can come from Russia or the West.
What does the West want?
- We don’t want Russian troops on the border of Poland.
- We don’t want Odessa taken from Ukraine.
- We don’t want the financial burden of Ukraine.
- We don’t Russia using Ukraine as a model to put together the former USSR in a new version as an economic and military union.
What is the West doing to get its objectives accomplished if it comes down to negotiating a deal to end the crisis?
- Covering up for Russia’s involvement in whatever bad acts the US government knows it is likely involved in.
- Not even stopping travel or visas from Russia or Central Asia?
- Not exposing Russia’s networks in the West?
- Acting like Putin has the edge on our leaders and institutions.
- Ukraine joins a military and trade union with Russia.
- Crimea is part of Russia.
- Parts of Ukraine may become part of Russia.
- The Russian military is on the border of Poland.
- Russia does repeat the Ukraine model with other former Soviet Republics to get them to join the new military and economic union.
- None of Russia’s networks or kompromat or oligarchs or bribery schemes in the West are exposed.
- Russia attributes its success to its kompromat and bribery networks not to Western power or moral force.
- Any agreements the Russians make to resolve the crisis they break just like the INF treaty.
- Terrorist incidents that have roots in Russia or Central Asia will continue to occur with Russia having plausible denial of being behind them.
This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.