Does Putin have a plan for how to get sanctions lifted?
“What’s his plan?” (Hunt for Red October)
- Disrupt the Middle East to raise the price of oil permanently.
- Make a deal to help West on something and get sanctions lifted.
- Germany, France get tired of sanctions and drop out. Sanctions become a paper tiger.
- BRICs help organize substitute for West so that sanctions don’t bite.
- Escalate his behavior until West agrees to give up sanctions.
- Gain some leverage by his actions that can be used to compel dropping sanctions.
- Kompromat on Western leaders including Merkel and Obama.
- More Snowdens but with secrets that expose Western leaders.
- Exposing secrets of Western leaders without appearing to be responsible.
- Build up his own trading bloc until it is too big for Western sanctions.
- Freeze US out of Central Asia until it has to have Russian cooperation for the ongoing US adventure in Afghanistan.
- Cooperation on controlling nukes of North Korea, Pakistan and Iran.
This is draft and preliminary. The above is hypotheses and speculation. Comments and corrections welcome. Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.