Archive for the 'Dating Mating and Immigration' Category

Immigration distrust equilibrium low fertility outcomes

December 18, 2008

The following was a comment at Vanishing American, “Where have all the men and women gone.”

VA had a post on the London Times:

Where have all the men gone?

…Where have all the men gone? Instead, we have an overload of man-boys – which leaves a generation of single, thirtysomething women who are their natural mates bewildered. I am one of those women.

Men’s median wages are the same as in 1973 in the US see p60-233.pdf graph page 19.

We can use a theorem in demographics to explain demographic outcomes.  The theorem is the Wright Island Model.

“the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.”
Nagylaki, Genetics.

There is a substitution effect by immigration alone.  Its a math theorem that the genes on the island have to converge to those of the immigrants.  Thus the mating process is disrupted.

Economic instability works its way backward.  Marriages can breakup when the man or both lose their job.  So the marriage is unstable.  So they can’t have kids.  So there is no reason to get married.  So they don’t. This type of recursive or backward reasoning is used in game theory and modern economics.

It is sometimes called rational expectations.  Young people have rational expectations of job instability.  Based on that they have rational expectations of marriage instability.  So they have rational expectations of not having children when married. So they have rational expectations of not getting married at all.  So they don’t.

Its a rational expectations equilibrium that derives from the unstable job market caused by immigration.

The fertility graph above from 1800 to 1990 shows this.  Fertility fell except during immigration restriction from 1924 to the late 1950’s early 1960’s when it picked up even before the 1965 act.  The baby boom started in 1940 and peaked in 1957 and was followed by the baby bust.  This was the same period that saw marriage start to crash.

We now are in the extreme stress conditions implied by the Wright Island Model.

Young people are looking for an explanation of what is happening to them.  Its in the math.  The math explains what is happening.  Immigration causes genetic replacement with certainty.

The growth of distrust is a result of the influx.  With zero immigration, people deal with the same people on a repeat basis and there is stability. So behavior is closely monitored. This makes reputation important. Trust comes out of this. We get a trust and responsible behavior equilibrium.

With the influx of immigrants, there is no way to avoid extinction ultimately.  So people become desperate and short term in their thinking. They also deal with different people and so don’t need a good reputation.  The result is they behave badly. We switch to the distrust equilibrium. People expect bad behavior in advance, so they don’t let themselves be vulnerable. The result is a crash.

Its the same in our financial system. Bear Stears in 1998 wouldn’t do illiquid trades like LTCM did.  But in 2008 they went bankrupt by selling illiquid derivatives.  This was because the managers just wanted to get theirs while they could and the spread for selling illiquid derivatives was high.  The same for AIG FP. These firms also became full of Indian and Chinese quants who simply told the trading bosses what they wanted to hear, value at risk was low.  But, of course, it wasn’t. We are in the distrust equilibrium. That comes from immigration and its a consequence of rational expectations equilibrium from game theory.

The meaning of young people’s lives is the above math.  Their lives instead of being full of meaning are just bacteria in someone else’s experiment.  They are reduced to objects by immigration.  Yet they see the meaning in their life as being not bigoted.  Its actually a scam foisted on them by those running the experiment.  And the experiment is evil.


An economist or someone said recently, or I read it recently and they said it long ago, that children are a durable good.  The production of that good is disrupted by immigration.  Its too costly and risky to produce children when there is immigration.  So they are produced less.

Children provide a stream of benefits.  Not just support in old age, but emotional ones when young.  There is a trade. Parents give children a stable loving home and get love in return.  This works if the parents have a stable job.

But if that stream of benfits from children isn’t worth the cost and risk the children are not produced.  To enjoy the benefits, one needs economic stability.  When there is no job stability, a child goes from being a stream of satisfaction, to a source of worry, how to provide for the child.

The emotional stream of benefits comes with the requirement of a stream of emotions to provide to the child. And if one can’t provide, the parents part of the bargain, the trade of emotions with a child can’t happen in a positive way but is negative. Child abuse may have risen because of this as well.  Parents can’t deliver on their part of the trade, a stable economic environment and home, and so abuse the children out of their angst and to blame the victim.

The trade between parent and child is disrupted by immigration which creates economic instability.  This changes children from a blessing to a burden.  So young adults don’t have children. So they don’t get married. So they are unhappy.

Immigration causes unhappiness.   Part of the channel is to create distrust.  This includes distrust between the sexes. The result is more partners and instability and the spread of disease.  That is another outcome of immigration.


Search “children are durable goods”

“children are a durable good”

bad grammar but good search.

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