Archive for the 'David Coleman Oxford Demographer' Category

David Coleman Oxford Demographer

December 18, 2007

Oxford Student Action for Refugees has circulated a petition seeking the removal of Professor David Coleman, a leading expert in demographics, because of his connections with MigrationWatch.

March 3, 2007

Coleman defends himself:

A number of studies show that the net economic benefit of immigration per head of population is about 0.1% of GDP.

In the UK, GDP is about £1.3 trillion so 0.1% is about £1300 million. Per head, among 60 million people in the UK that amounts to about £22 each per year or just under 50p each per week.

This is likely masking the negative impact. Immigrants have huge dependency ratios. They suck out the money and natives have below replacement fertility.

Immigrants and the expectation of more take away job security from young adults who then have fewer children, below replacement. They wait to marry, have fewer children, or divorce as job pressure breaks up marriages. All the problems the West experiences.

Statistics that provoked trouble:

Chaired by Sir Andrew Green, a retired diplomat, it caused an immediate furore by making a startling prediction. It said there would be two million immigrants over the following 10 years and that 80 per cent of Britain’s population increase up to 2020 would be as a result of immigration.

Professor Coleman has claimed in signed articles that immigrants had contributed the equivalent of “a Mars bar a month” to the well-being of the UK. Mars bar is a popular chocolate which is touted as providing energy. Infuriated by his comments, the Oxford branch of Students Action on Research (Star) launched a petition to have Coleman sacked.

Obviously an exaggeration, on net they subtract. Dependency statistics show that. They also eliminate good genes by the immigration substitution effect.

On the other hand, Dr David Coleman, reader in demography at Oxford University, points out that any population permanently needing immigrants would ultimately become all immigrants! He reminds us that if immigration were entirely open-ended (as it is at present, since no upper limit has been declared by the politicians) “it would bring about a revolutionary change to the racial make-up of Britain.”

The Immigration Vanishing Survival Theorem proves this and gives examples. This can happen rapidly.


  1. the UK population was a constant 75 million
  2. People lived 75 years.
  3. Immigration was 250,000 per year.

Then 1 million die per year. Given 250k coming in, that means births would be 750k per year. Thus the genetic survival ratio is 3/4 per generation. If its 25 years from birth to parent, then the gene stock depreciates at a rate of 3/4 per 25 years. If immigration was 500k per year, then its 1/2 per 25 years. In that case in 75 years its down to 1/8 of the starting value. Any amount of influx causes genetic extinction and replacement. This also happens to each entering annual cohort of immigrants.

Teresa Hayter comments on David Coleman above. She says he may be for eugenics, as opposed to all genes above 85 IQ being eliminated by third world immigration? Hayter seems to have an appropriate name.

Academic papers by him at above site.

Attack on Coleman


David Coleman Galton Institute

Old Atlantic was banned from Comment is free for saying some similar things.

Comments on “Out on the streets, the kids are scared too”
by Catherine Johnson Sunday April 8, 2007 The Observer

UK Guardian Comment is Free,,2052504,00.html

See link to OA above to see what got me banned.
==Wright Island Model Sustained Immigration is genetic replacement immigration.

“We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.”

Genetics. 1979 January; 91(1): 163–176.

The Island Model with Stochastic Migration

Thomas Nagylaki

Department of Biophysics and Theoretical Biology, The University of Chicago, 920 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637

As pointed out in a previous post:

The theorem doesn’t say you get a mixture of old and new. The theorem says you get complete replacement of the old by the new. The old goes extinct. This is pure genetic replacement. It doesn’t matter if there is an intermediate mixture or not. Over time, the initial stock is replaced completely. Promises of a mixture are false.


According to David Coleman, Professor of Demography at Oxford University*, the cost of migrant crime inflicted just on UK households and individuals is in excess of £3bn pa.

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