Archive for the 'Immigration Fallacies' Category

New York Times orders Wright Island Model concealed

February 1, 2009

(Spoof) The New York Times ordered that the Wright Island Model be removed from textbooks and webpages worldwide.  The NYT wrote:

The Wright Island Model makes the white nativists restless.  Its too much for the poor dears to comprehend that their extinction is decreed by us, and that makes it good.  Peter Brimelow, Vdare, and Marcus Epstein received warnings from the Times that they must apologize 5 times a day for being white.   When it was pointed out that Vdare was a website, the Times said so?  We say it is, so it is.

We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.

Genetics. 1979 January; 91(1): 163–176.

The Island Model with Stochastic Migration

Thomas Nagylaki

Department of Biophysics and Theoretical Biology, The University of Chicago, 920 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637

(Nagylaki got started in physics and wrote papers on quantum electrodynamics.  WIM though is much older.)

New York Times claims that this is too complicated.  We are journalists, we are told what to say.   What do we care what some theorem says.

Besides we don’t like the assumptions.

Immigration Vanishing Survival Theorem

June 4th, 2007 Assume that

  1. Population is bounded from above
  2. The flow of immigrants is unbounded from above
  3. The survival probabilities of the genes of each immigrant are equal.


For any given cohort of immigrants at time t, the survival probability of their genes at T > t, p(t,T) must go to zero as T goes to infinity.

In fact the assumptions can be weakened so that if some group with unbounded influx has a survival probability which mutiplied by some constant bounds the other groups then it and all the groups have zero survival probability.  Same applies for ex-post survival factor.

NYT:  You didn’t use measure theory in that proof did you?   If you didn’t, we don’t accept it.  Its not theoretical enough.  If you did, we don’t accept it either, its not practical.

(OK, obviously the spoof is going too far.  The NYT editorialists don’t know measure theory and that probably includes Paul Krugman as well.)

BTW with the Immigration Vanishing Survival Theorem you can proof the second law of thermodynamics.   The proof is basically that the full Hamiltonian or time development operator causes the system to have an influx of probability of other states as seen relative to some simpler Hamiltonian.  Thus the entropy increases since the probability of every state relative to the simpler Hamiltonian goes to zero.

The WIM implies a substitution effect.  This carries over to all aspects of human society.  The WIM says whatever good you do, the bad rises even more to force extinction of every gene here and each year’s cohort of genes that come here.  Immigration forever means that this is a genetic graveyard.  Every gene that comes here goes extinct.

Another way of understanding it is as follows.  Suppose every gene now in the US gets a serial number that is distinct.  Each gene that crosses the border gets a new serial border.  When a gene is created from a single gene, it copies the same serial number plus the date.  When created from two genes it gets both serial numbers combined and the date.

The serial numbers as of any date eventually all disappear even embedded in other numbers.  All the serial numbers that arrive in a year disappear as well even embedded in other numbers.  This has to happen because otherwise there would be more serial numbers than the upper bound on population.

Thus all the good that happens has to be overmatched by bad to force humans to reproduce below replacement.   We are in the credit crisis and financial crisis that the WIM predicts will happen.  Uncertainty is a way to get humans to defer reproduction.  In some cases, that is permanent.  Young adults defer and then are old adults before they know it.  Marriages are unstable.   So they don’t have more kids they break up.

Then young adults think recursively.  The marriage won’t last, so don’t have kids.  So don’t get married.

With zero immigration, not zero net, but zero influx, young adults have job security.  All jobs have to go to them if there is zero influx, not zero net, but zero absolute.  This gives young adults the confidence and security to get married, have kids, stay married and have more kids.  This produces institutions that work and happy families.  Happy families make institutions work and when institutions work they make it possible to have happy families.  This is why influx must be zero, not just equal to outflux.

Graph of ferility 1800 to 1990:

Fertility fell except during immigration restriction from 1940 to 1957, when immigration reached 250,000 per year again.  That is why that amount is too high, it cuts off the security of young adults and interferes with marriage stability.

Men’s median wages are the same as in 1973

See graph page 19

Productivity per hour doubled over the period.


Series Id: PRS84006093
Duration: index, 1992 = 100
Measure: Output Per Hour
Sector: Business

Series Id,Year,Period,Value,


Select business, output per hour, and index. Then click on Add to Your Selection.

Then click on Get Data. You can get formatting options later. I selected only annual data and csv data. I copied that into a text file and then recopied it into this.

Other productivity choices and sources

Labor productivity

1948 to 2002

Table 1. Private business sector:Indexes of productivity & related measures, 1987-2006

“productivity index” bls




This is almost a doubling of this measure of output per labor. There are many at BLS.

==NYT.  Bottom line is bottom line.  And top line is top line.

Spengler demographic fallacies at Takimag

December 8, 2008

Spengler at Takimag uses demographic arguments to “prove” we must have immigration and more aid to the rest of the world instead of our own to fund retirement.…bal_depression/

Fallacy: More 3rd worlders here will support us in old age.

Truth: 3rd worlders take more out at every age than they put in at that age.  Thus 3rd worlders never support anyone.  Moreover, they degrade society and safety to impose externalities on the productivity of others.  Work places can’t hire non-Hispanics in many cases.  This is from violence or hostility.  3rd worlders delay labor saving technology being introduced. 3rd worlders drain our know-how advantage and work for their own people here and at home.  They are not going to take care of old whites if whites don’t have young whites to fight for them.  So we need young whites to fight for us in our old age.

==My comment at Vanishing American on Spengler

Of course, paying out more money to those who don’t pay back on the investment can never help you. As whites age, they will find they are not enjoying as good a retirement as they promised themselves. This is a consequence of the foolish 3rd world immigration and 3rd world aid. Perhaps this biting lesson can be learned in time, but only if the fallacies of the Spengler types are pointed out.

More cost can’t support the aged. Its like the GM UAW chase the tail thinking. 3rd worlders are more cost. The cost of 3rd worlders substitutes for our own children, who can support us.

Fighting Spengler type math fallacies is fundamental to reversing thinking. As long as the Spengler types can peddle their confusion without being rebutted with math and data, they will delay the reversal needed.

Vanishing American posted a column this morning, “Did Earlier Generations Fail Us?”  in not stopping immigration.

We see it right here with Spengler’s fallacies writ large on the conservative websites.  The comments indicate that people see through it.  But its important to stop the pseudo science with real math.  3rd worlders are net cost.  More cost can’t help you.

Immigration substitutes immigrants for births.  That leads to genetic replacement. Genetic replacement is not our goal after billions of years of life on this planet.  Genetic replacement does not make us feel better, it makes us feel bad.  The 3rd worlders won’t take care of us in our old age, they will prey on us.  We will have to work into our old age to support ourselves and them.  That’s the reality.

At every age they take out more in public benefits and charity than they put in. Thus they are a cost for their entire lives.

==Comment posted at Takimag

We should stop all immigration to raise our birth rate.  We should not educate or aid foreigners but our own children here.  Aid increases their birth rate as Virginia Abernathy shows.  Immigration reduces ours, its a published theorem called the Wright Island Model, search on that for links.

Look at the graph of fertility in the US since 1800:

The bump up is called the baby boom, but it started after immigration restriction in 1924 after a delay from the Great Depression.  It started in 1940 and peaked in 1957 when immigration started to pick up already at about 250,000 per year.  The solution is to lower total inflow to below 10,000 per year including student visas.

Our population would not even fall because we already have 3rd worlders.  Third worlders take more than they give.  Its employers who benefit not the host society.  3rd world immigrants are on net parasites.  More of them kills you faster.


We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.  Nagylaki Genetics.

Genetic extinction is harsh not good.  3rd worlders don’t support non 3rd worlders ever.  Spengler says our past losses in demography should make us seek out more genetic extinction.  This is a fallacy.  More genetic extinction will be more harshness.

To achieve the substitution, there is a substitution effect. That effect is to make our lives worse until we give up and go extinct.  It takes a harsh external force to make us give up having our own children. That’s called immigration and to a lesser extent 3rd world aid or unfair imports.  We have to stop all that to stop it getting worse. When our young adults get married young, have kids, stay married, and have more kids that will show that times are good.  Economic stability is what does that.  We need to stop all immigration, 3rd world aid and cheap (and unsafe) imports to do that.

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