(Spoof) The New York Times ordered that the Wright Island Model be removed from textbooks and webpages worldwide. The NYT wrote:
The Wright Island Model makes the white nativists restless. Its too much for the poor dears to comprehend that their extinction is decreed by us, and that makes it good. Peter Brimelow, Vdare, and Marcus Epstein received warnings from the Times that they must apologize 5 times a day for being white. When it was pointed out that Vdare was a website, the Times said so? We say it is, so it is.
We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.
Genetics. 1979 January; 91(1): 163–176.
The Island Model with Stochastic Migration
Department of Biophysics and Theoretical Biology, The University of Chicago, 920 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637
(Nagylaki got started in physics and wrote papers on quantum electrodynamics. WIM though is much older.)
New York Times claims that this is too complicated. We are journalists, we are told what to say. What do we care what some theorem says.
Besides we don’t like the assumptions.
June 4th, 2007 Assume that
- Population is bounded from above
- The flow of immigrants is unbounded from above
- The survival probabilities of the genes of each immigrant are equal.
For any given cohort of immigrants at time t, the survival probability of their genes at T > t, p(t,T) must go to zero as T goes to infinity.
In fact the assumptions can be weakened so that if some group with unbounded influx has a survival probability which mutiplied by some constant bounds the other groups then it and all the groups have zero survival probability. Same applies for ex-post survival factor.
NYT: You didn’t use measure theory in that proof did you? If you didn’t, we don’t accept it. Its not theoretical enough. If you did, we don’t accept it either, its not practical.
(OK, obviously the spoof is going too far. The NYT editorialists don’t know measure theory and that probably includes Paul Krugman as well.)
BTW with the Immigration Vanishing Survival Theorem you can proof the second law of thermodynamics. The proof is basically that the full Hamiltonian or time development operator causes the system to have an influx of probability of other states as seen relative to some simpler Hamiltonian. Thus the entropy increases since the probability of every state relative to the simpler Hamiltonian goes to zero.
The WIM implies a substitution effect. This carries over to all aspects of human society. The WIM says whatever good you do, the bad rises even more to force extinction of every gene here and each year’s cohort of genes that come here. Immigration forever means that this is a genetic graveyard. Every gene that comes here goes extinct.
Another way of understanding it is as follows. Suppose every gene now in the US gets a serial number that is distinct. Each gene that crosses the border gets a new serial border. When a gene is created from a single gene, it copies the same serial number plus the date. When created from two genes it gets both serial numbers combined and the date.
The serial numbers as of any date eventually all disappear even embedded in other numbers. All the serial numbers that arrive in a year disappear as well even embedded in other numbers. This has to happen because otherwise there would be more serial numbers than the upper bound on population.
Thus all the good that happens has to be overmatched by bad to force humans to reproduce below replacement. We are in the credit crisis and financial crisis that the WIM predicts will happen. Uncertainty is a way to get humans to defer reproduction. In some cases, that is permanent. Young adults defer and then are old adults before they know it. Marriages are unstable. So they don’t have more kids they break up.
Then young adults think recursively. The marriage won’t last, so don’t have kids. So don’t get married.
With zero immigration, not zero net, but zero influx, young adults have job security. All jobs have to go to them if there is zero influx, not zero net, but zero absolute. This gives young adults the confidence and security to get married, have kids, stay married and have more kids. This produces institutions that work and happy families. Happy families make institutions work and when institutions work they make it possible to have happy families. This is why influx must be zero, not just equal to outflux.
Graph of ferility 1800 to 1990:
Fertility fell except during immigration restriction from 1940 to 1957, when immigration reached 250,000 per year again. That is why that amount is too high, it cuts off the security of young adults and interferes with marriage stability.
Men’s median wages are the same as in 1973
See graph page 19
Productivity per hour doubled over the period.
Series Id: PRS84006093
Duration: index, 1992 = 100
Measure: Output Per Hour
Select business, output per hour, and index. Then click on Add to Your Selection.
Then click on Get Data. You can get formatting options later. I selected only annual data and csv data. I copied that into a text file and then recopied it into this.
Other productivity choices and sources
1948 to 2002
This is almost a doubling of this measure of output per labor. There are many at BLS.
==NYT. Bottom line is bottom line. And top line is top line.