Archive for the 'James G. Gimpel' Category

Immigration Substitutes for Births

February 28, 2007

Immigration is a zero sum game for life between immigrants and natives. Search on Unpleasant Immigration Arithmetic for the mathematical proofs in detail that immigrants must substitute for births.Briefly, at some point the population stops increasing. At that point, all immigrants must substitute for births, or the population wouldn’t have stopped increasing.

But substitution starts before then. Immigration takes away job security and young adults have below replacement levels of children.

Men’s median wages are lower than in 1973. 51 percent of women live alone as a result. Women’s fertility is below replacement for most groups, which is what happens when men and women don’t live together.

See p60-229.pdf at census. gov around page 14 for graph showing men’s wages below level in 1973.

51% of Women Are Now Living Without Spouse – New York Times By SAM ROBERTS
Published: January 16, 2007

In 2005, 51 percent of women said they were living without a spouse, … preparing to live longer parts of their lives alone or with nonmarried partners. …”

In 2005, 51 percent of women said they were living without a spouse, up from 35 percent in 1950 and 49 percent in 2000.

Coupled with the fact that in 2005 married couples became a minority of all American households for the first time, the trend could ultimately shape social and workplace policies, including the ways government and employers distribute benefits.

Search on google 51 percent women live alone

See new income inequality graph link (old link income inequality graph may not work) at Income inequality bottomed out in 1968 after falling from first recorded numbers in 1940’s. It then rose from 1968 to now. This shows the 1965 Immigration Act cutting in, both in men’s median wages and in income inequality. Women’s dropping fertility also shows the direct substitution of immigrants for births.

The pop is 300 mm. If that was the steady state, the arithmetic of substitution is as follows. At 75 years of life, 4mm die per year. If 2mm enter, then 2 mm births in steady state. So 2mm births/4 mm deaths gives a genetic survival ratio of 1/2 per generation. Assume a 25 year cycle birth to parent, then in 3 generations down to 1/8. I.e. in 75 years we have complete genetic replacement.

Even if pop goes to 450 mm and immigration is 1mm per year, we get a survival ratio of 5/6 per generation which implies still rapid genetic extinction.


Immigration in the 21st Century
By Frank Morris and James G. Gimpel
Center for Immigration Studies | February 28, 2007

The article at Front Page Magazine is the sort of hard work that cuts through PC babble. Its hard for the PC police to scream racist when you have such a well researched piece of work.

This reinforces work by Putnam that diversity creates distrust.

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