Archive for the 'Linda Chavez' Category

AEI for Genetic Replacement Immigration not Mixture

October 5, 2007

The American Enterprise Institute, AEI, supports genetic replacement immigration not mixture immigration. The immigration plan supported by AEI will, with probability one, result in the extinction of all genes in the US at any point in time. This follows from the extension of the Wright Island Model setup to the Immigration Vanishing Survival Theorem setup.

Vanishing American reviews the AEI position that was outlined in a Washington Times article.

“This will arguably be the third great revolution of America, if we can prove that we literally can live without having a dominant European culture.” – Bill Clinton

Actually, its a revolution either way. Its a bigger revolution for the testers if the proposition is proven false. We show below that non-zero annual immigration causes not a mixture but complete genetic replacement. Since genetic replacement is a harsh outcome and takes harsh conditions to achieve, the probability of preserving any type of good culture is very low. To achieve zero genetic survival, conditions have to become harsh enough to induce below replacement fertility on an indefinite basis.

If there is replacement fertility and immigration, the population will grow without bound which is impossible. Thus immigration and a bound on population imply instead fertility is below replacement and this, together with some mild relative survival rate conditions, implies that the survival rates of stock and each year’s cohort of immigrants all go to zero as the horizon recedes. Thus for stock and immigrant cohorts, conditions are harsh.

More from VA:

Who eliminates us, even if they do it ever so gently by encouraging us to blend in with the immigrants who have been picked to replace us, is destroying one unique piece of the human mosaic, which can never be replaced.

We must not let America vanish.

In less than a century, America will no longer be a majority-white nation, David Coleman, professor of Demography at Oxford University, explained Tuesday at a Hudson Institute forum.
A decline in U.S. fertility rates, in combination with increased immigration, will change the ethnic makeup of America, Mr. Coleman said.
This transition is affecting many other countries, Mr. Coleman said. Throughout Western Europe, populations are being inundated by new immigrant populations, he said. The native-born British, Scottish and Irish populations are also becoming minorities in the United Kingdom.

American Enterprise Institute scholar Nicholas Eberstadt said “the United States, for all its flaws, has a pretty workable formula.”

Sustained immigration causes genetic replacement not a mixture as the asymptotic state. The following is from Nagylaki’s paper, see reference below:

“We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.”

The asymptotic state, i.e. long run equilibrium, is not a mixture of the influx and stock gene pool, it is completely the influx gene pool. The assumptions of the Wright Island Model can be relaxed substantially. As long as population is bounded, and there are some mild asymptotic bound conditions, we get the result that each individual gene in the stock at any time goes extinct without daughter genes surviving. This also applies to any set of genes in the stock at any point in time. This is true both as an ex-ante probability and as an ex-post convergence in probability result on the ex-post genetic survival factor.

This applies to each year’s immigrant cohort. Thus America is an asymptotic genetic graveyard. Every year’s genes that come here eventually go extinct. Genes come here to die. It is like the Elephant Graveyard.

== A numerical example shows what happens.

Assume US population at 300 million was the maximum. If people live 75 years, then 4 million die per year. If 2 million enter then births = 4million deaths – 2 million entrants = 2 million.

The ratio of births to deaths is 2/4 or 1/2. The time from birth to parent is roughly 25 years. So in 50 years, one has 1/4, and in 75 years 1/8 of the starting genes.

Even if population went to 450 million, deaths per year are 6 million. With even one million entrants that gives a survival ratio of 5/6. So the number left after 25*n years is (5/6)^n which goes to zero as n goes to infinity.

It goes to zero rapidly in fact.

Population is bounded above. This means that sustained immigration and some mild assumptions on relative survival rates implies that the genetic survival rate of each individual gene, each group of genes, the stock at any point in time, and each year’s immigrant cohort all asymptote to zero. Thus we have rolling genetic extinction. America, and Europe and Canada and Australia and New Zeeland are all genetic graveyards. Every gene that goes to any of them goes extinct.


For the non-technical reader, the discussion in the following article will be easier than the standard literature results. It will still require some work.

You can post questions and eventually I will try to post answers.

Links to academic papers and more discussion:

The graph of declining fertility in the US from 1800 to 1990 is”

Fertility falls except during immigration restriction. This is a combined economics population genetics interaction. Wages are part of this economics genetics combined situation.

The baby boom is when fertility went up. This happened from 1940 to 1957, the period of lowest immigration except for the 1930’s during the Great Depression. Fertility fell from 8 c. 1800 to 3 c. 1920 and then fell to above 2 in the Great Depression and then rose to 3.75 in 1957 and then fell to below 2 by 1980 and recovered slightly to around 2. Part of that is higher immigrant fertility.

The theorems work. Note it was the Mill not the Pill that caused this decline. Info on 19th century wages and working conditions for the Lowell Mill Girls:

Median Wage Increase in constant dollars.Last three decades. Sorted Best-to-Worst.D:Clinton	 565

D:Carter	-108

R:Reagan	-228

R:Bush II	-588

R:Bush I 	-825
R:Ford		-894

Except for Clinton, the median wage has gone down under every President since Ford took office in August 1974.

==Extensive Comment Thread at Front Page Mag Linda Chavez 1.5 mm annual

I posted some of the above information as a comment at Front Page Magazine in a debate involving Linda Chavez. Chavez advocates 1.5 million legal immigrants per year. According to the theorems, this implies genetic replacement of all the stock here on any date, and the entire cohort that comes each year. The Chavez plan is for a rolling genetic extinction. According to her, the economy needs that. It does in fact hold down costs to have people go extinct instead of having replacement children. This is one reason economics papers have such a hard time identifying what is wrong with immigration.

Original article was titled, “The Immigration Debate”.

FP: John Fonte, Mark Krikorian, Linda Chavez, Joe Hicks and Clint Bolick, thank you for joining Frontpage Symposium.

Jamie Glazov is Frontpage Magazine’s managing editor. He holds a Ph.D. in History with a specialty in U.S. and Canadian foreign policy.

==My comment at Wash Times

“Who cares?” I read Vanishing American’s blog on this.

I care and I am trying to do all I can to stop it. I am for ending all immigration. I support Numbers USA and Fairus and send in my faxes and make the phone calls to my Senators and reps.

The Wright Island Model is a theorem in genetics. It says one way immigration causes complete genetic replacement. Go to link at my name for links to references available on line w/o subscription.

Genetics. 1979 January; 91(1): 163�176.

The Island Model with Stochastic Migration

Thomas Nagylaki

Department of Biophysics and Theoretical Biology, The University of Chicago, 920 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637
“We investigated various cases of the island model with stochastic migration. If the population is infinite, the immigrants have a fixed gene frequency and the alleles are neutral, the gene frequency on the island converges to that of the immigrants.”
Posted by Old Atlantic | October 5, 2007 1:24 PM


Mr. Eberstadt said that historically, immigrants in America, over time, are able to assimilate into society and become productive citizens, inferring that the same assimilation process would take place over the next century as immigrants, and their offspring, became the ethnic majority in America.


“This will arguably be the third great revolution of America, if we can prove that we literally can live without having a dominant European culture.” – Bill Clinton

The above proves that we “literally can” not live with sustained immigration. Its a theorem.


We can either extinct together or stop all legal immigration together.

==Appendix Note on VA’s point on difficulty in learning the science.

David Coleman

search Thomas Nagylaki quantum 

If you look at their bios and papers you will see David Coleman has no papers in mathematical biology, they are at a lower level of math.  Nagylaki started in quantum field theory and then switched to mathematical biology.   There is evidently a lack of communication.   These two groups need to communicate more so that Coleman can explain the concepts and math better.  We are not headed towards a mixture state as the long term outcome, we are headed to extinction.  Moreover, this can happen rapidly in some scenarios.

If we want to keep on reading the Nagylaki papers in quantum electrodynamics, we need to start reading and applying the Nagylaki papers in population biology.

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