Archive for the 'Saudi National Security Assessment Project' Category

Nawaf Obaid

December 3, 2006

May 10, 2002, 8:45 a.m.
A Defense of the Saudis
A dissent.

By Nawaf Obaid

he press is trying to implicate Saudi Arabia as the fourth member of the “Axis of Evil,” but the kingdom is still the most strategically vital ally the U.S. has in the Middle East.

Above from National Review Online

Stepping Into Iraq

Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis if the U.S. Leaves

By Nawaf Obaid

Wednesday, November 29, 2006; Page A23

In February 2003, a month before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be “solving one problem and creating five more” if he removed Saddam Hussein by force. Had Bush heeded his advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of full-blown civil war and disintegration.

One hopes he won’t make the same mistake again by ignoring the counsel of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that “since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited.” If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.

Arab and Muslim countries, have petitioned the Saudi leadership to provide Iraqi Sunnis with weapons and financial support.

Isn’t this happening already, with the weapons, men and money being used against US troops? This is disinformation to justify the already existing support for the insurgents against US troops? Also this explanation doesn’t work to explain why Saudi Arabia is supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan with money and weapons against our troops?

Moreover, domestic pressure to intervene is intense. Major Saudi tribal confederations, which have extremely close historical and communal ties with their counterparts in Iraq, are demanding action.

This pressure isn’t already arming the insurgents against US troops now? Isn’t this the same pressure that existed before 9-11 to support bin Laden, and after 9-11 to cover up and continue the support of bin Laden, the Taliban, and “radical” Islam?

They are supported by a new generation of Saudi royals in strategic government positions who are eager to see the kingdom play a more muscular role in the region.

That would be to continue the attacks on Americans they have supported since the 1990’s?

(and because it would be impossible to ensure that Saudi-funded militias wouldn’t attack U.S. troops), these requests have all been refused. They will, however, be heeded if American troops begin a phased withdrawal from Iraq. As the economic powerhouse of the Middle East, the birthplace of Islam and the de facto leader of the world’s Sunni community (which comprises 85 percent of all Muslims), Saudi Arabia has both the means and the religious responsibility to intervene.

the Saudi leadership is preparing to substantially revise its Iraq policy. Options now include providing Sunni military leaders (primarily ex-Baathist members of the former Iraqi officer corps, who make up the backbone of the insurgency) with the same types of assistance — funding, arms and logistical support — that Iran has been giving to Shiite armed groups for years.

Either this is true that Iran is supplying the Shiite armed groups, or he is lying. If he is lying, its to justify Saudi support of the insurgents. Either way, it shows Iran or the Saudis or both are supporting the insurgents.

The writer, an adviser to the Saudi government, is managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project in Riyadh and an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not reflect official Saudi policy.

Official Source refutes report of Nawaf Obaid in Washington Post


CSIS Profile

Nawaf Obaid is an adjunct fellow with the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, as well as managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project, a consultancy based in Riyadh. He is also the private security and energy adviser to HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal, the Saudi ambassador to the United States. He is the author of The Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policymaking in Saudi Arabia (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000) and coauthor, with Anthony Cordesman, of National Security in Saudi Arabia: Threats, Responses, and Challenges (Praeger/CSIS, 2005). Mr. Obaid holds a B.S. from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, an M.A. in public policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and has completed doctoral courses at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program.


Debunking CSIS Obaid Myth Saudi Foreign Fighters in Iraq

November 16, 2006

Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia“. In September 2005 he coauthored a CSIS reporting saying that only 12 percent of foreign fighters in Iraq were Saudi. The CSIS source is a report by Obaid from what seems to be a Saudi entity. Obaid’s job as a consultant to Saudi intelligence is to write reports that say Saudi Arabia is not linked to terrorism?
Lisa Myers at NBC on June 20, 2005 and Susan B. Glasser Washington Post on May 15, 2005 reported that over 50 percent of the foreign fighters in Iraq were Saudi. See bottom for more on this. This Obaid CSIS “study” is disinformation to try to get the MSM to drop its own careful reporting.

Nawaf Obaid Adjunct Fellow, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy “Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project.”

The Obaid CSIS report is titled:

Saudi Militants in Iraq: Assessment and Kingdom’s Response
Saudi Militants in Iraq: Assessment and Kingdom’s Response -pdf
It cites the “Saudi National Security Assessment Project” as its source. Obaid is the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project.
Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project.”

The title of the CSIS report sounds like a Saudi employee or consultant of the Saudi government wrote it.

It seems likely that Obaid’s job for Saudi intelligence as a consultant is to convince the West that Saudi Arabia is not linked to terrorism. So he writes a CSIS report under CSIS, which is linked to Carlyle group, and he cites his own Saudi National Security Assessment Project as the source of the analysis.

It in turn analyzed data from Saudi intelligence according to page 5 of the above report. It appears Obaid is the one who was paid by Saudi intelligence to do this data analysis of Saudi intelligence non-public data. The result according to Obaid is that only 12 percent of foreign fighters in Iraq are Saudi.

Saudi National Security Assessment Project

CSIS Publications 2005.

posted September 23, 2005 at 10:30 a.m.

search Saudi foreign fighters Iraq

search myth Saudi foreign fighters Iraq

The ‘myth’ of Iraq’s foreign fighters
Report by US think tank says only ‘4 to 10’ percent of insurgents are foreigners.
By Tom Regan |

Report attacks ‘myth’ of foreign fighters

Brian Whitaker and Ewen MacAskill
Friday September 23, 2005
The Guardian

Frank Carlucci

“Mr. Carlucci has been a managing director of the Carlyle Group since 1989, chairman since 1993, and chairman emeritus since 2003.” “Mr. Carlucci graduated from Princeton University and attended Harvard Business School.”

Saudi intelligence reports sent through Saudi entities to the CSIS are like “salted peanuts” to the Washington establishment. The 9-11 Commission of Kean Hamilton that ignored the 2003 Congressional report finding links between the Saudis and the 9-11 hijacker was one big jar of “salted peanuts”.

Boston Globe article including Obaid research before Sep 2005 report.

“However, interrogations of nearly 300 Saudis captured while trying to sneak into Iraq and case studies of more than three dozen others who blew themselves up in suicide attacks show that most were heeding the calls from clerics and activists to drive infidels out of Arab land, according to a study by Saudi investigator Nawaf Obaid, a US-trained analyst who was commissioned by the Saudi government and given access to Saudi officials and intelligence.”

== News Reports that foreign fighters are Saudi
“NBC 55 percent Foreign Fighers Saudi in Iraq”
“By Lisa Myers & the NBC Investigative Unit Updated: 8:39 p.m. ET June 20, 2005 Who are the foreign fighters in Iraq? An NBC News analysis finds 55 percent hail from Saudi Arabia Lisa Myers Senior investigative correspondent

• Profile An NBC News analysis of hundreds of foreign fighters who died in Iraq over the last two years reveals that a majority came from the same country as most of the 9/11 hijackers — Saudi Arabia.””

“By far the nationality that comes up over and over again is Saudi Arabia,” says Evan Kohlmann, an NBC News terrorism expert.

The NBC News analysis of Web site postings found that 55 percent of foreign insurgents came from Saudi Arabia, 13 percent from Syria, 9 percent from North Africa and 3 percent from Europe.

The U.S. military also says Saudi Arabia and Syria are the leading sources of insurgents. An Army official provided a list of the top 10 countries to NBC News but would not release the numbers of foreign fighters from each. The top 10, alphabetically, are: Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.”

If the army had evidence that Saudis were 12 percent, they would publish it. That they don’t is consistent with “Saudi” Arabia heading the list.

Commentary on Lisa Myers NBC Report

“‘Martyrs’ In Iraq Mostly Saudis
Web Sites Track Suicide Bombings

By Susan B. Glasser
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 15, 2005; Page A01

“In a paper published in March, Reuven Paz, an Israeli expert on terrorism, analyzed the lists of jihadi dead. He found 154 Arabs killed over the previous six months in Iraq, 61 percent of them from Saudi Arabia, with Syrians, Iraqis and Kuwaitis together accounting for another 25 percent. He also found that 70 percent of the suicide bombers named by the Web sites were Saudi.”

The apparent predominance of Saudi fighters on the Internet lists has caused an alarmed reaction by Saudi officials, who fear a backlash from the Americans at the same time they are trying to convince the United States that they are working as allies against terrorism. While Saudi officials do not deny that Saudi citizens have taken up arms against the United States in Iraq, they argue that the long lists of Saudi dead could be a disinformation tactic or simply a recruiting tool used to lure Arab youth to Iraq by convincing them of how many others have already won a place in Paradise.

“Are there Saudis in Iraq? Yes, we know that. Absolutely. But are there the numbers being bandied about? We really don’t believe so,” said a Saudi official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the subject.

“The Internet sites try to recruit people — it’s the best recruitment tool,” said Saudi security analyst Nawaf Obaid. Obaid, who has worked closely with the government, said he found 47 cases of Saudis who were dead or injured reported in the kingdom’s newspapers, far lower than Internet totals, and had concluded the overall number of Saudi jihadis in Iraq was in the hundreds. “But young guys, they read [on the Internet] we have thousands of Saudis there and think, ‘I have to go, too.’ ”

Evan F. Kohlmann, a researcher who monitors Islamic extremist Web sites, has compiled a list of more than 235 names of Iraqi dead gleaned from the Internet since last summer, with more than 50 percent on his tally from Saudi Arabia as well. In some cases, he found photos or videos of dead foreign fighters posted online. One Kuwaiti policeman who died was featured in a Zarqawi propaganda video called “Winds of Change,” while the bloodied corpse of a Turkish al Qaeda disciple, Habib Aktas, was shown on another video celebrating his “martyrdom.””

Saudis one of top 5 captured by coalition forces.

This article is hypotheses, speculation, or opinion. All other disclaimers apply.

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