Archive for the 'Stanley Fischer Witness List' Category

Stanley Fischer witness Franklin Fisher MIT 3rd thesis chairman

March 3, 2014

Franklin M. Fisher was the 3rd thesis chairman of Stanley Fischer.  The first was Miguel Sidrauski who died in 1968. The second was Duncan K. Foley.

This post considers the hypothesis that Stanley Fischer plagiarized Nils Hakansson in 1969 in Fischer’s MIT Ph.D. thesis. Fischer claimed he saw Hakansson’s 1966 thesis late, after writing relevant sections of Fischer’s thesis. Fischer didn’t comment then about Hakansson’s uncertain lives working paper at Yale which corresponded to chapter 5 of Fischer’s thesis.

Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, and Insurance,” International Economic Review, 10, October 1969, 443-466.

Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions,” Econometrica, 38, September 1970, 587-607; reprinted in Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (eds. W. T. Ziemba and R. G. Vickson), Academic Press, 1975, 525-545. Interview of Stanley Fischer by Olivier Blanchard 2004/2005 Essays on assets and contingent commodities.

Author: Fischer, Stanley
Department: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics
Publisher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Date Issued: 1969

Description: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics. Thesis. 1969. Ph.D.Vita.Bibliography: leaves 193-195

dc.contributor.advisor Franklin M. Fisher. en_US Fischer, Stanley en_US 2005-08-11T12:00:00Z en_US 2005-08-11T12:00:00Z en_US 1969 en_US
dc.description Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics. Thesis. 1969. Ph.D. en_US
dc.description Vita. en_US
dc.description Bibliography: leaves 193-195. en_US
dc.format.extent vii, 196 [i.e. 197] leaves en_US
dc.format.extent 27933841 bytes

Questions to ask Franklin M. Fisher

  1. Karl Shell had a copy of Hakansson’s thesis at MIT in 1966 from public records.  You shared an office with Shell while he was at MIT through 1968.  Did you have a copy of the Hakansson thesis at that time?
  2. Did you talk to Shell about it?
  3. Was it a major breakthrough?
  4. You became editor of Econometrica which was going slow on publishing Hakansson’s paper. Who was the referee for the Hakansson paper at Econometrica?
  5. Why was the Hakansson paper published so late?
  6. In a letter dated June 4, 1969 from Econometrica to Hakansson, the final version of his paper was accepted.  That letter is signed by Jacques E. Dreze, Co-editor.  Did you see that letter prior to its being sent?
  7. Was there any change in referee?
  8. What were the referee’s objections?
  9. Why were similar objections not made to the Samuelson and Merton papers published in August 1969 at the MIT/Harvard journal Review of Economics and Statistics?
  10. Doesn’t Fischer’s thesis follow Hakansson’s thesis as a template and not Samuelson’s discrete time 1969 paper?
  11. For example, Hakansson does second order conditions for an optimum as does Fischer, but Samuelson does not.
  12. Did you see a copy of Hakansson’s uncertain life paper prior to the conclusion of Fischer’s thesis in 1969?
  13. Who was your office mate after Karl Shell left?
  14. In the published paper version of Fischer’s thesis he acknowledges that what is chapter 5 is equivalent to Hakansson’s paper “Optimum Investment and Consumption Strategies under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, and Insurance”, International Economic Review, 10 Octoboer 1969 443-466.
  15. Fischer’s paper is “A Life Cycle Model of Life Insurance Purchases,” International Economic Review, (February 1973), 274-77.  This is chapter 5 of his thesis.
  16. When did you first learn of the Hakansson IER paper?
  17. Did Duncan Foley have a copy from Yale?
  18. Did Martin Weitzman?
  19. Did Joseph Stiglitz?
  20. Did Robert C. Merton?
  21. Did Paul A. Samuelson?
  22. Did Peter Diamond?
  23. Were you surprised when you saw it?
  24. Did you discuss this with Duncan Foley?
  25. With Karl Shell?
  26. Who was referee on the Hakansson IER paper?  Fischer’s?
  27. Did Russia learn of this in early 1970s?
  28. Was this used by Russia to pressure Nobel Prize nominations in econ for Kantorovich of the USSR?
  29. How did Koopmans at Yale get onto the same Nobel Prize?
  30. Was Milton Friedman upset that Koopmans got the prize ahead of Friedman?
  31. Was Marschak known to be a communist?  Marschak was on Hakansson’s committee. Was this used as leverage to plagiarize him?
  32. Was Koopmans rumored to be one?  Also used as leverage to plagiarize Hakansson?
  33. What happened at University of Chicago in 1952 involving Econometrica and these people?  Two people had to resign and the editorial office was moved to Northwestern.  What happened?
  34. Did this have to do with the Markowitz paper and thesis?
  35. Markowitz had to wait for his Ph.D. until Cowles left Chicago in 1955.  He got it the quarter after Cowles left.  Is this linked?
  36. Was this known to Samuelson? He was President of the Econometric Society that year.
  37. Was that Samuelson’s leverage to plagiarize Hakansson in his 1969 paper?
  38. Did Samuelson’s paper come after the Stanley Fischer thesis?
  39. Did Robert C. Merton and Fischer work together as office mates with Fischer doing discrete time and Merton continuous time?
  40. Did Samuelson learn of this and want to provide cover for Robert C. Merton because he admired Robert K. Merton?
  41. Duncan Foley has described Miguel Sidrauski, the first chairman of the Fischer thesis as leftist and his wife Martha as even more life and linked to people who disappeared in Argentina after the 1960s.  What do you know of them?
  42. Miguel Sidrauski and Fischer bonded closely?
  43. They were both Zionists we learn from Foley and from the Blanchard interview. Did they bond on that?
  44. Did Miguel Sidrauski let Fischer plagiarize Hakansson?
  45. Did the Sidrauskis have a relation with Russia that you ever heard?
  46. Was the Fischer plagiarism a ploy to ensnare MIT and Samuelson to pressure Samuelson to nominate Kantorovich of the USSR for the econ prize?
  47. Was Sidrauski in on it? The source?
  48. Duncan Foley is a type of Marxist.  What did he know of this if anything?
  49. Who told Russia? Or did Russia figure it out?
  50. Did Russia tell Martin Weitzman they knew about it at an econ conference in Poland?
  51. Was he a messenger to Samuelson?
  52. Was Andrei Shleifer a similar messenger later from Anatoly Chubais and Russia to Larry Summers and Stanley Fischer to get IMF loans?
  53. Did LTCM and DE Shaw trade Russian government bonds in the 1990s knowing Russia was using this as leverage?
  54. Was this told to USAO Mass during US v Harvard, Shleifer and Hay from 1997 to 2005?
  55. During Aaron Swartz investigation? One can use JSTOR files to help discover or prove this.
  56. Does Russia have a complete copy of all the JSTOR files in Russia?
  57. Was this ever told to the FBI during any investigation or background check?
  58. Did anyone tell this to Israel?  When?
  59. Did Israel do a background check on Fischer when it hired him as central banker in 2005?
  60. Were you questioned by Israel then?
  61. Did Israel already know of this?
  62. Did David Levhari tell them?  Did you?
  63. Did you tell the US after you learned Israel knew of it?
  64. Did you explicitly tell Israel that Fischer plagiarized Hakansson?
  65. Did you say Robert C. Merton was in on it?
  66. Did you say Paul Samuelson was?
  67. Did either of those talk to Israel at that time on this?
  68. Did they repeat what they told Israel to the FBI?
  69. What about Larry Summers?  Andrei Shleifer?
  70. Hay got a Ph.D. in math from Steklov Institute c. 2003. Did you know of this? Was it to keep Hay from telling what he knew to the FBI to get a plea deal during US v Harvard, Shleifer and Hay?
  71. Did Summers protect Shleifer during US v Harvard, Shleifer and Hay because Shleifer was the conduit for this from Chubais? Knew of it?
  72. Did others know?
  73. Did Robert Vishny or Jose Scheinkman help Shleifer?
  74. What did Daniel Rubinfeld know of this?
  75. Who knew what when as of the ASSA January 2005 meeting in Philadelphia?
  76. Were you there?
  77. Who talked to Daniel Rubinfeld?
  78. What did Rubinfeld know?
  79. You, Schmalansee and Rubinfeld were all at MIT in 1969 and were all involved in US v Microsoft on both sides.  Did you tell any lawyer of this?  The judge?
  80. Lawrence Lessig was special master on that case.  Did he learn of it then?  Later?
  81. Did Aaron Swartz learn of this from Lessig?  From the Internet?
  82. Was Aaron Swartz investigating this when he downloaded the JSTOR files?
  83. Did Swartz commit suicide to protect someone before trial?  Someone who was going to come forward?
  84. Peter Diamond was added to the Swartz committee after someone asked MIT to investigate these matters as part of the Swartz investigation in 2013.  Did you hear of any discussion of this?
  85. Abelson is a friend of Lessig.  Was Lessig being protected?
  86. Was this told to the FBI in the background check for Stanley Fischer?
  87. How much of this does Russia know?
  88. Who has Russia approached?
  89. How much do China, India, Pakistan, and Iran know about this?  Have they approached anyone.
  90. Olivier Blanchard did not know what Stanley Fischer’s thesis was on in the 2004/2005 interview linked above.  How is that possible?  Part of their book together was on the same subject. No one at MIT told Blanchard?
  91. Does this show Fischer did plagiarize Hakansson?
  92. Robert C. Merton states in his Nobel Prize autobiography that Hakansson and Hayne Leland were graduates students elsewhere.  Hakansson got his Ph.D. in 1966 and Leland in 1968. Merton’s paper was published in 1969.  So they were not grad students then.  Was this to cover up that Hakansson went to Yale and the working paper version of Hakansson’s IER paper went to MIT to the office Merton and Fischer shared together while Merton did the continuous time version of Fischer’s discrete time knock off of Hakansson?
  93. Neither Merton nor Fischer followed Samuelson’s 1969 paper as a template?
  94. In 2003, Samuelson wrote it was not plagiarism.  Did Karl Shell tell Samuelson that someone asked for an investigation of a related plagiarism case in 2002 to Elsevier?
  95. Should the DOJ Antitrust Division have approved the Elsevier Academic Press merger?
  96. Daniel Rubinfeld has written that Elsevier’s big bundle violates the antitrust laws.  Do you agree?
  97. Is the role of Elsevier in this and the role of econ Ph.D.’s and econ profs at DOJ Antitrust Division Economic Analysis Group the reason that Elsevier can violate the antitrust laws?  Others?  Do investment banks know this?  Does Goldman Sachs?
  98. Do they get regulatory benefits?
  99. Bernanke’s thesis at MIT under Fischer doesn’t cite Fischer’s thesis or papers or Hakansson but does cite Samuelson 1969.  Bernanke knew this?
  100. Did Bernanke bailout the banks because they knew this?
  101. Did the Fed help bailout LTCM in 1998 because of this?
  102. No one told the FBI all this time?
  103. Does Russia know all this?
  104. Is this why Putin feels so confident he can invade Crimea and get away with it?
  105. Did Obama know this when he hired Larry Summers?  Did anyone tell the FBI then?
  106. Did anyone tell the FBI this time about Stanley Fischer?
  107. Does Obama know it anyhow?
  108. Does Putin have this as leverage over Obama?
  109. What about China, India, Pakistan, and Iran?  Others?

The above are hypotheses and speculation.  Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

Paul Samuelson MIT memorial service

March 1, 2014

Paul A. Samuelson, Nobel Laureate

MIT Samuelson Memorial Service

Good questions outrank easy answers” – Paul A. Samuelson (May 15, 1915 – December 13, 2009)

This website is dedicated to the Paul A. Samuelson Memorial Service which was held on April 10, 2010 at MIT’s Kresge Auditorium.

Video of service:


Susan Hockfield

Ricardo Caballero W

William Samuelson

Lawrence Summers W

Stanley Fischer W

Paul Krugman W

James Poterba W

Helmut Weymar

Robert Bishop

Robert M. Solow W

Most of these belong on the witness list.  W by name indicates should be.

The above is speculation and hypotheses.  Please restate as questions. All other disclaimers apply.

LTCM traded Russian government bonds in 1990s using this info

March 1, 2014

This post considers the hypothesis that Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) traded Russian government bonds knowing that Russia had leverage over Stanley Fischer and Larry Summers.

Losses included: “$430 mn in Russia and other emerging markets”

John W. Meriwether Former vice chair and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers; MBA, University of Chicago
Robert C. Merton Leading scholar in finance; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Professor at Harvard University
Myron S. Scholes Co-author of Black–Scholes model; Ph.D., University of Chicago; Professor at Stanford University
David W. Mullins Jr. Vice chairman of the Federal Reserve; Ph.D. MIT; Professor at Harvard University; was seen as potential successor to Alan Greenspan
Eric Rosenfeld Arbitrage group at Salomon; Ph.D. MIT; former Harvard Business School professor
William Krasker Arbitrage group at Salomon; Ph.D. MIT; former Harvard Business School professor
Gregory Hawkins Arbitrage group at Salomon; Ph.D. MIT; worked on Bill Clinton‘s campaign for Arkansas state attorney general
Larry Hilibrand Arbitrage group at Salomon; Ph.D. MIT
James McEntee Bond-trader
Dick Leahy Executive at Salomon
Victor Haghani Arbitrage group at Salomon; Masters in Finance, LSE

Around 1992, arbitrage trader Larry Hilibrand was the top-paid trader at Salomon Brothers. As one of the most mathematically astute traders, Hilibrand became the youngest managing director in Salomon Brothers history. Subsequently, he became a partner at a hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management, the failure of which almost caused an apocalypse on the Street.

Hilibrand currently lives in Greenwich with his family.

The traders were professors and Ph.D.s from MIT and Harvard to a large degree.  They knew about Russia having used the plagiarism kompromat already in the 1970s to get Nobel Prize nominations.  They knew Russia had this over Larry Summers and Stanley Fischer.  They likely also knew Boris Berezovsky was a math Ph.D. at Institute of Control Sciences in Moscow before his rise to power and that he could have learned of the 1970s kompromat pressure there.

The research with Paul on warrant pricing introduced me to the expected utility maxim and its application to optimal portfolio selection in a static framework. As a consequence of that effort, I began to think about combining the static theory of portfolio selection with the intertemporal optimization of lifetime consumption under certainty found in the growth-model literature. Ignorant of the important work underway by Nils Hakansson and Hayne Leland, then graduate students elsewhere (false), I attacked the problem of dynamic portfolio theory in a continuous-time framework without having the benefit of their discrete-time formulations. Despite all the mathematics courses that I had taken, l had seen neither stochastic dynamic programming nor the Ito calculus, both of which turned out to be key mathematical tools needed for this research. Instead, driven by “need,” I found them and learned them on my own. Presented first at a Harvard-MIT graduate student seminar in November 1968, my paper on lifetime consumption and portfolio selection under uncertainty was published the following August as a companion paper to one by Paul investigating the effect of age on portfolio risk tolerance.

Notice that Robert Merton is talking about Nils Hakansson in his Nobel Prize autobiography as having did work before him that Merton published, as he claims independently.  Hakansson got his Ph.D. in 1966 and was at Yale.  His Yale working paper on uncertain lives somehow ended up as chapter 5 of Fischer’s thesis.

Hakansson is not on the list.  Nor is Leland.

Some who are on the list:

(*) MARTIN J. BECKMANN, Department of Economics, Brown University, Box B, Providence, RI 02912 USA (1958).

PETER A. DIAMOND, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, E52-344, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA (1968).

J. DARRELL DUFFIE, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, 518 Memorial Way, Stanford, CA 94305-5015 USA (1995).

(*) STANLEY FISCHER, Bank of Israel, P.O.Box 780, Jerusalem, 91007 Israel (1977).

(*) PETER C. FISHBURN, P.O. Box 309, Basking Ridge, NJ 07920-0309 USA (1974).

(*) FRANKLIN M. FISHER, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, E52-274, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA (1963).

(*) DAVID LEVHARI, Department of Economics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, 91905 Israel (1971)

KARL SHELL, Department of Economics, Cornell University, 402 Uris Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7601 USA (1972).

ANDREI SHLEIFER, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer M-9, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA (1993).

(*) T. N. SRINIVASAN, Economic Growth Center, Yale University, Box 208269, 27 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT 06520-8269 USA (1970).

MARTIN L. WEITZMAN, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer 313, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA (1976).

(*) LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS, Office of the President, Harvard University, Massachusetts Hall, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA (1985).

Merton’s Nobel Prize was in 1997.  Russia was going full blast in getting IMF loans and LTCM going full blast.  Then in another year it fell apCart.  LTCM had its back office trading done by Bear Stearns.   The street was able to put together some info on LTCM’s positions.  Russia probably knew the large position in its bonds at Bear Stearns were held for LTCM.  This can all be investigated even at this date.

“Eric R. Rosenfeld is a Senior Lecturer in Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management.”

All those involved should be interviewed.

The above is speculation and hypotheses.  Please restate as questions.  All other disclaimers apply.

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